An oil crash???

[jetflyer]

The GOVERNMENT NEEDS to start funding alternatives now like we did for the MANHATTAN PROJECT!!

I'm VERY GLAD WE INVADED IRAQ. It's great that we've secured the IRAQ oilfields for our future use, but the $200 Billion spent on IRAQ could have helped us avoid the PROBLEMS of PEAK OIL in other ways.

Read this about IRAQ AND PEAK OIL:
http://globalresearch.ca/articles/ENG408A.html

Don't get me wrong I'm glad we secured the Iraq oil fields for our future use. I just wish it would have gone smoother than it has and not cost so much. Also we haven't been able to secure the oil fields. Iraq has only been able to pump about 1.5 million barrels/day since we invaded. We need to get that number up to historic numbers of 3+ million barrels/day as soon as possible. Halliburton is doing everything they can to repair the damage done by sabotage and bombings. I just wish we could stop the insurgents and terrorists from blowing the facilities and pipelines up in the first place!

Jet

 

[Singlecoil]

So are you investing all of your money in oil futures then?

 

[jetflyer]

Singlecoil,

I haven't bought futures yet but I'm looking into it. I just found out about all this PEAK oil mumbo jumbo about a month ago. I didn't even know what futures really were until yesterday as a matter of fact. I visited a website that had a FUTURES 101 instruction section. It tought me a ton. Now I just have to save my money, because I had already put my short term savings in the last couple weeks to max out my and my wife's 2005 ROTH IRAs. I put my ROTH IRA in an ENERGY MUTUAL FUND and my WIFE'S IN GOLD. I think the economy is going to severely be hindered close to the breaking point in the next couple years. I also didn't want to put all my eggs in the ENERGY basket.

All the research I've done on Peak oil is scary though. It's for real.

PEAK OIL is not IF BUT WHEN.

Even Dick Cheney said a few years back that supply was going to outstrip demand SEVERELY by 2010. Read his quote at: http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

The newest book on PEAK OIL just out this last week is called "Twilight in the Desert" The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy by Matthew Simmons.

Matthew Simmons advised Dick Cheney back in 2001 on the Energy Policy. He told Dick Cheney all about the many problems of Peak Oil, which Cheney probably already knew about.

He has done research on hundreds of Strategic Petroleum Engineer papers and has come to the conclusion that Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer is having serious problems with their oil fields and is getting close to a decline.

The Ghawar oil field, which produces 5 times more oil than any other OIL FIELD in the WORLD is having serious troubles. This one field produces 5 million barrels of oil a day. Every oil field eventually begins to decline, but if this field begins to decline we're in trouble. It produces 6% of the World's OIL and 60% of Saudi Arabia's oil.

The Saudi's inject 7 million barrels of WATER a day into their Ghawar oil field to maintain well pressures. The WATER CUT (amount of water coming out of the wells with the oil) has also been increasing tremendously. They're having to resort to serious 3D Seismic mapping to attempt to avoid water at this point but it's still not helping. They've been having more and more water encroachment even when using the newest technological horizontal well technology. The field just isn't what it used to be.

All of Saudi Arabia's 6 giant oil fields which have been pumping oil for over 50 years are having similar troubles which are common for all oil fields that are old. These fields produce over 85% of Saudi Arabia's oil, and Saudi Arabia has nothing to fall back on when the inevitable decline that all oil fields go through approaches.

He basically through research of over 200 Strategic Petroleum Engineer papers provides proof that Saudi Arabia is in trouble. Matthew Simmons was actually on CNBC in an interview last week and was countering claims by the Saudi Oil Minister Al Naimi.

I hope PEAK OIL happens later rather than sooner. If Saudi Arabia begins to decline the WORLD will begin to decline immediately. If PEAK OIL happens in the next five years we as a society FINANCIALLY are in a lot of trouble. The scary part is many analysts are thinking PEAK production will happen as soon as the end of this year.

From what I've read though there are enough MAJOR new projects in the works to delay peak until atleast 2008-2010.

I do however think SUPPLY WILL NOT MEET DEMAND as soon as the end of this year though. That is the major reason why the price just hit a record on Friday. Analysts are starting to get real nervous about the supply problems. Supply not meeting demand is scary enough!! The oil prices are going to get to hurtful levels soon and just keep going up year over year. Then when the inevitable decline begins after we pass peak, WE'RE IN SERIOUS TROUBLE!! I'm not joking when I say serious wars might be fought over this resource. Or have they already been fought?? Iraq 1 & 2 ??

SCARY STUFF and SCARY TIMES we're going to live in really soon! I used to be worried about my airline. Now I'm worried about the USA and the WORLD.

Jet

 

[Cobra]

The GOVERNMENT NEEDS to start funding alternatives now like we did for the MANHATTAN PROJECT!!

I'm VERY GLAD WE INVADED IRAQ. It's great that we've secured the IRAQ oilfields for our future use, but the $200 Billion spent on IRAQ could have helped us avoid the PROBLEMS of PEAK OIL in other ways.

Read this about IRAQ AND PEAK OIL:
http://globalresearch.ca/articles/ENG408A.html

Don't get me wrong I'm glad we secured the Iraq oil fields for our future use. I just wish it would have gone smoother than it has and not cost so much. Also we haven't been able to secure the oil fields. Iraq has only been able to pump about 1.5 million barrels/day since we invaded. We need to get that number up to historic numbers of 3+ million barrels/day as soon as possible. Halliburton is doing everything they can to repair the damage done by sabotage and bombings. I just wish we could stop the insurgents and terrorists from blowing the facilities and pipelines up in the first place!

Jet

I guess your fellow Americans (almost 2 thousand of them now) dead somehow don't factor in concerning all this. By the way who's we? You got a mouse in your pocket somewhere?

G

 

[Cobra]

The GOVERNMENT NEEDS to start funding alternatives now like we did for the MANHATTAN PROJECT!!

I'm VERY GLAD WE INVADED IRAQ. It's great that we've secured the IRAQ oilfields for our future use, but the $200 Billion spent on IRAQ could have helped us avoid the PROBLEMS of PEAK OIL in other ways.

Read this about IRAQ AND PEAK OIL:
http://globalresearch.ca/articles/ENG408A.html

Don't get me wrong I'm glad we secured the Iraq oil fields for our future use. I just wish it would have gone smoother than it has and not cost so much. Also we haven't been able to secure the oil fields. Iraq has only been able to pump about 1.5 million barrels/day since we invaded. We need to get that number up to historic numbers of 3+ million barrels/day as soon as possible. Halliburton is doing everything they can to repair the damage done by sabotage and bombings. I just wish we could stop the insurgents and terrorists from blowing the facilities and pipelines up in the first place!

Jet

I guess your fellow dead Americans (almost 2 thousand of them now and counting) somehow doesn't factor in concerning all this. By the way who's we? You got a mouse in your pocket somewhere?

G

 

[jetflyer]

Sorry Cobra,

I didn't mean to sound like I didn't care about our troops and the sacrifices they've given for us. Many have given the ultimate sacrifice. I hate it that the war is not going well and that Americans are getting killed. It angers me badly.

I am sure Bush thought things were going to be a cake walk. The seizing of IRAQ actually was. I think he did what he did for the American people and our way of living. I'm sure he didn't think many Americans would die at all.

LACK OF PLANNING?? DEFINITELY. Did he lie to the American public? Definitely! Did he think he was doing what he did for our welfare? I'm sure of it.

WE CAN BLAME BUSH, but WE MUST PUT MORE OF THE BLAME ON THE INSURGENTS AND THE TERRORISTS. They are the ones killing our wonderful young men and women.

PEAK OIL is one of the major reasons we went to war with IRAQ.
http://globalresearch.ca/articles/ENG408A.html

There is another reason.
Read this article and see that this is the FINANCIAL REASON why we went to war with IRAQ:
http://www.currentconcerns.ch/archive/2003/04/20030409.php

Once again, I'm sorry if I was insensitive Cobra. I wish we'd have never gone to war with IRAQ. We didn't know as many people would die and that it would cost so much money. In hindsight we SHOULD NOT HAVE GONE TO WAR with IRAQ. If we knew it was going to cost $200 BILLION dollars we definitely shouldn't have gone to war.

WE SHOULD HAVE spent the $200 Billion dollars to reduce our independence on foreign oil. We could have used it to advance bio-fuels, develop hydrogen cars, fund FUSION power, build NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS, make ELECTRIC cars more advanced that ran off the nuclear plants, etc. We could have done a lot with that $200 Billion. It will probably be $500 billion before it's all done too. That will suck huh?

I think we've done what we have though, so let's fix IRAQ. I think we should train the Iraqi's to provide the security for themselves and then hide in American reinforced bases. WILL WE EVER LEAVE? NO, NEVER. Iraq has the second most OIL RESERVES second only to Saudi Arabia's. We're going to protect our national interest which is oil.

We're going to need every drop of that oil very soon. Let's hope we can get the Iraqi oil fields pumping and stop them from getting blown up!

Jet

 

[some_dude]

First of all, we did not go to war in Iraq to get their oil. If that was all we wanted, it would have been much cheaper and much easier to make a deal with Saddam.

If you really believe in the peak oil stuff you keep repeating, I strongly suggest a career change. I would consider either organic farmer (advantage: would make you a hero on the peakoil.com messageboard) or nuclear plant technician (might not go over as well on peakoil.com). Either one should do just fine under your scenarios.

 

[jetflyer]

Some dude,

Lol funny.
You too will believe in peak oil soon.
Unfortunately.

Read this BLOOMBERG article from last Thursday talking about the SUPPLY/DEMAND problems coming in the 4th quarter:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=71000001&refer=&sid=aiwRNOjz1HRc
It also says that if oil prices break through the record which it did Friday, then oil wil go to $70 NEXT.

Jet

p.s. you're in denial Don't worry it's normal.

 

[Traderd]

Some dude,

Lol funny.
You too will believe in peak oil soon.
Unfortunately.

Read this BLOOMBERG article from last Thursday talking about the SUPPLY/DEMAND problems coming in the 4th quarter:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=71000001&refer=&sid=aiwRNOjz1HRc
It also says that if oil prices break through the record which it did Friday, then oil wil go to $70 NEXT.

Jet

p.s. you're in denial Don't worry it's normal.

Jet,

I trade in commodities and equities every day. When I read an article in any medium that states the future price of any commodity, I have to smile.

A little background. I am a very small player, generally making about 15 trades a day (equity side) moving about $3M in and out of the market. On the futures side, I am still learning and as such generally trade only a few contracts a day, all without leverage.


I have no idea if crude will push $100 or $20/bl, but I know if you or anyone else knew, they wouldn't be driving someone else around for a living. Offer real proof of this move to a broker and you should have all the margin you need. Wait, I take that back. Offer real proof of a price move to a broker and they'll trade that info themselves. Since we really don't know for a certainty what the price of any commodity will do in the near term, it is still called specualtion. Oil may hit $200 next week for all I know, but I won't be risking my capital on any crude contracts; I am not smart enough to go head to head with that market right now.

I am not one in denial, and one would assume that oil will increase in price going forward, especially as how it has lagged inflation for such a long time. I'm not sure it's current price is even excessive when inflation adjusted. I would agree that known reserves are declining, since they are what's known and we are using them daily. The reason I can't get too excited and dig a hole in my back yard (well I've already done that but I filled it with cement and water) to hide in is because this chicken little scenario has been oft repeated since oil was found and new sources seem to always pop up. May not happen again and even if new reserves are found they may be quite a bit more expensive than what's under all that sand. So I'll sit back and watch you get rich (you do believe in this stuff right? You are going to risk your very own captial, right?) and salute your market saviness with a smile.

Oh and by the way, I understand that you don't like the current political situation in our country. A word of advice. Don't risk your own money because you hate a current politican. I detect more emotion than logic in your posts and while a fool and his money are soon parted, it is usually becasue a fool makes decisions based on emotions.

Good luck with your contracts this week. Let us know how it goes.

 

[100LL... Again!]

They predicted that crude would be gone by the 1980's.
Guess what?

Alarmist crap is always popular, though.

Here's the real catch: If we were this close to running out of oil, the price would already be much higher.

So just because you found some website that claims to know the future, you believe? Come, now. Prices will probably go up. Quite a bit, even. But if the Saudis were really almost out of oil, they would be selling for more.

Personally, I DO think that the Saudis may diminish as oil producers, but that they will be replaced by others.

Canada is looking good, also, and there is always ANWR. If/when gas is 8 bucks a gallon, the tree hugging soccer moms will be storming the government demanding that ANWR be drilled so that they can drive their SUVs. It is only a matter of price before public opinion will shift. Perhaps we will get more fuel-efficient cars. Perhaps less gas-guzzling SUVs. (Personally, my car gets better tha 40 mpg, so I'm okay with the SUV being phased out).

IF these guys at peakoil really believe this stuff, I'd like to see their portfolio.

Meanwhile, I'm planning on opening a part 135 glider operation, just in case. Anyone know where I can get some REALLY big rubber bands?

 

[Wino]

I love when guys stumble across the peak oil websites.

If they get all concerned, it just means they are about 35 or younger and don't remember the 70s. Or else they were too busy dropping "Tuning In, Turning on, and Dropping out" to pay attention to what was going on around them.

There were even cartoons on the sat morning TV as commercials to get us to conserve.

Peak oil has been predicted within the next 5 years every year since 1970. Just because oil costs go up does not mean we have reached the peak. Infact quite the contrary. The higher oil prices are the more oil there is because now oil that was uneconomical at 20 dollars a barrel is commerically viable at 50 dollars a barrel. (Samething for alternative fuels btw)

Face it we will NEVER run out of oil. It will reach a price where other things become more cost effective, and that is EXACTLY how the market should work.

To quote the Saudi's, (and I hate them btw) "The stone age didn't end because we ran out of rocks." And I will add that it didn't end with big government subsidies for research either. Just like the Bronze age and the Iron age, the economics of something better caused the end of Stone, Bronze, and Iron ages...

Cheers
Wino

 

[jetflyer]

You guys are something else,

First I support Bush. I never said I didn't.

Second, I present information to you guys and you don't read it. They're just "SOME ARTICLEs" to you. You guys do me a favor before you address me again and read what this member of Congress said to the House. If you don't listen and read any of the information I give you, maybe you'll listen to a Congressman.

READ THIS TRANSCRIPT from one of the most CONSERVATIVE Congressman in the HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES.
THIS SPEECH was given by Maryland
Congressman ROSCOE BARTLETT to the HOUSE on MAY 3, 2005 about PEAK OIL:

http://www.energybulletin.net/5948.html

It's a great presentation and has many, many charts, graphs, and other visuals to help support his arguments.

Jet
p.s. I looked into futures, you have to trade 1000 barrels of oil at a time! ($60,000!) I can't afford that, lol. I'm just an F.O. I guess my energy and precious metal mutual funds are going to be all I can do for now. I'm also looking into some individual stocks.

 

[Wino]

I got news for you,
I have read what you posted.

You are just too young to know any better.

Those charts are and sights are NOTHING compared to the charts, scientists, and predictions of doom that they used to implement the 50 mph speed limit nation wide in the 70s.

Yes you read that right the speed limit was 50 mph. Then they raised it to 55 in the late 70s, then in the 90s they raised it to 65 in some places and it went even higher since then.

Its not news, and you have been hoodwinked.


And you know what? ITs all the same adgenda. Make the car's less apealing and people will flock to the trains (Yeah right...) Trains aren't green, contrary to popular belief, but they are VERY easy to controll. Then people live where WE want em to live and do what WE want em to do...



Cheers
Wino

PS if you are SURE about your predicitons there are VERY many ways to trade on that knowledge without buying futures. Buy drilling stocks for example.

PPS. Edited to add
If you are really worried you should be looking at these guys http://www.changingworldtech.com/what/index.asp .

You will notice that with oil at 30 dollars a barrel this technology was a net loss. Above 35 or so and its PROFITABLE. IF oil will stay that high then these guys will be everywhere. Get oil prices high enough on a sustained period and these guys will be mining the old landfills. Then all recycling you did in the 90s will come back and haunt us because we will have reduced our reserves.

 

[Traderd]

You guys are something else,

First I support Bush. I never said I didn't.

Second, I present information to you guys and you don't read it. They're just "SOME ARTICLEs" to you. You guys do me a favor before you address me again and read what this member of Congress said to the House. If you don't listen and read any of the information I give you, maybe you'll listen to a Congressman.

READ THIS TRANSCRIPT from one of the most CONSERVATIVE Congressman in the HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES.
THIS SPEECH was given by Maryland
Congressman ROSCOE BARTLETT to the HOUSE on MAY 3, 2005 about PEAK OIL:

http://www.energybulletin.net/5948.html

It's a great presentation and has many, many charts, graphs, and other visuals to help support his arguments.

Jet
p.s. I looked into futures, you have to trade 1000 barrels of oil at a time! ($60,000!) I can't afford that, lol. I'm just an F.O. I guess my energy and precious metal mutual funds are going to be all I can do for now. I'm also looking into some individual stocks.

Jet,

The fact that you can't afford a $60K contract and actually think someone should "LISTEN TO A CONGRESSMAN" speaks volumes of your overall life experience. Do some real research. Find out who has what to gain from what is being said and you'll come out way ahead. Conservative or Liberal, there is always an interst of some kind behind the statements. I am quite the conservative, but when Mr. Dansforth spoke to limiting motorcycles to 100 HP several years ago, I could still call BS.

And by the way, I have been listening to politicians of all sorts since about 1972. Interesting that you claim "Bush lied" but then think we should "listen to a congressman". Be very careful with your money Jack, or someone will sell you magic seeds.

 

[skykid]

If you don't listen and read any of the information I give you, maybe you'll listen to a Congressman.

That statement is a sure-fire credibility loser. You might as well say Maybe you'll listen to Bozo the Clown.

 

[some_dude]

Most of those contracts are done on margin, meaning you don't need the $60,000, just 10% (or $6,000). If you are trading on margin you better be sure you are right, but it looks like you believe you are.

p.s. I looked into futures, you have to trade 1000 barrels of oil at a time! ($60,000!) I can't afford that, lol. I'm just an F.O. I guess my energy and precious metal mutual funds are going to be all I can do for now. I'm also looking into some individual stocks.

 

[klhoard]

.
.
.
Yeah, trading on margin, that's the ticket!!!. . . . .
.
.
.
You'll be just like all the pilots in my old squadron taking stock advice back in 1999 from one of our gunners. . . .
.
.
.

 

[ZOTAN]

Jet,

The most important thing you are forgetting about peak oil is that it is the MIDPOINT of global oil production. It means that we have only used HALF of the worlds oil supply. If oil follows a bell shaped curve, demand will also. When oil becomes to expensive to burn, we will switch to something else. Peak oil is a problem, but not as big as you are making it out to be. It seems like you, and a lot of other people believe everything they read on the internet.

Matt


By the was, this is my first post!

 

[jetflyer]

The U.S. doesn't have another Saudi Arabia to save it's arse this time, like we did when U.S. oil production reached its peak of 10million barrels per day in 1970 and has dropped to 5 million today. (Prudhoe Bay and the rest of Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico have only slowed the decline in the U.S.) The U.S. has never had a year over year increase in oil production since 1970, ever!! Only declines.
www.yubanet.com/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi/8/15426

This is about to happen to the world. PEAK OIL.

The Canadian Oil Sands and the Alaska Wildlife Preserve are wonderful but will not save us unfortunately.


The U.S. uses 24 million barrels of oil/day. The world uses about 83mb+/- per day NOW. Exxon/Mobil (referenced in above post) has said non-opec countries will peak within 5 years. The reason they don't mention OPEC is because no information is released from them. All of the OPEC countries except Saudi Arabia have said they're pumping at full tilt though.

Demand is supposed to reach 86 million barrels per day(3 million barrels more than now) in the 4th quarter. Every oil producing country except Saudi Arabia has said they are producing at full capacity. If Saudi Arabia can't produce the extra than we're in trouble in the short-term. 5 Saudi OIL FIELDS that are over 50 years old produce over 80% of their oil. These fields are tired and ripe for decline and the Saudi's are pumping close NOW at their historic extraction rates. When you increase extraction in a field you actually can reduce the total amount that can ultimately be pulled out of the ground. The Saudi's will not be able to bring the extra capacity online. Ghawar their biggest field is already experiencing problems. It produces over 60% of their oil!!

The oil sands are going to be a WONDERFUL THING. They will help but only cushion really.

The oil sands aren't like regular oil fields. You have to MINE the stuff. You can't just open the tap like on an oil well.

Canadian Oil Sands: 2015 projection is for 2.2 MILLION BARRELS per day. (THIS WILL BARELY COVER THE SHORTFALL THIS YEAR IN THE 4TH QUARTER!!)Let's say they double that to 4.4 Mb/d. That could be done with a ton of investment. There also has to be the plants created to convert the oil sands into usable liquids and tons of natural gas are needed which is in VERY SHORT supply in North America right now. Let's hope they can do even more that 4.4 MBD!! We're gonna need it.

4.4mbd is pretty good, but will not outpace the depletion as we're on the BACKSIDE OF HUBBERT's PEAK and will only cushion the fall. We need to extract every bit out, don't get me wrong.

The Alaska Wildlife Reserve is going to be a WONDERFUL THING. KILL EVERY MOOSE IF WE MUST! We're gonna need that oil. This too will be even less of a cushion to peak oil unfortunately.

The first drops of oil aren't expected to come out until 2015. There will only be 1 million barrels per day for 25 years. THAT'S IT UNFORTUNATELY! Also unfortunately the US uses 24 million barrels per day. So if we could yank all the oil out in one year, and use it all ourselves, it would be gone in one year.

HAS ANYONE MENTIONED DEMAND FROM CHINA AND INDIA ARE INCREASING??

We're in a lot of trouble. The world needs to stop being skeptical like members of this board, READ THE STONE COLD FACTS, and wake up or we're gonna be in a LOT MORE TROUBLE.

DISCOVERIES OF OIL are almost NIL right now and have been declining severely to almost nothing in the last couple decades. There's not going to be some NEW FIND of oil.

I hope the US takes actions to begin liquefying coal now. We're gonna need to really soon. We unfortunately don't have enough facilities to create the massive amounts that are going to be needed soon, built yet. We also are going to have to begin mining the coal at much, much higher rates. Let's do this yesterday. Yes it's going to make for a dirty world, but it will help us bridge the gap to renewables. Hopefully the damage to the environment won't be too high.

Websites for PEAK OIL introduction:
www.yubanet.com/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi/8/15426
and
www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
and here is a recent Associated press article:
http://home.peoplepc.com/psp/newsstory.asp?cat=news&referrer=welcome&id=20050528/4297ecc0_3421_1334520050528-950973917
Chat group dedicated to peak oil discussion:
www.peakoil.com

Good luck to you all,
Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Zotan,

Let's just hope, since we don't have all these needed alternatives yet, the damage to the economy doesn't become too great.

6 of the last 7 recessions occured with oil price spikes.

Let's hope our economy doesn't burn too much from these high oil prices that are going to only get higher each year.

To replace the amount of oil we use today is going to be a phenomenal thing. We use the equivalent of 3,528,000,000 gallons a day of gas a day on this planet. (84 million barrels per day which is the YEARLY average).

Uh, we need to hurry, and probably need the government to enact a Manhattan Project-like like approach to overcome the 2-5% declines predicted after peak.

Jet

 

[ZOTAN]

3,528,000,000 gallons a day of gas a day on this planet. (84 million barrels per day).

Transportations account for 90% of our oil usage. That number could probably be cut in half if we used more fuel efficient cars. If we (the US) raised the fuel efficiency on every car by just 1mpg, we could save double the amount of oil the ANWR would be able to put out in the same year. If we raised the fuel efficiency on our cars by just 7mpg, we could stop importing oil from the Middle East. Sucking more of the black goo out of the ground isnt going to help us; like you keep saying, its going to run out one day. We need to have more fuel efficient cars. Hybrids help, but to many IDIOTS drive gas guzzling SUV's down the road. Gas is over 5 dollars a galloon in Europe, yet their economies aren't crumbling. They drive cars just like us (much smaller ones though), but they also have better forms of mass transportation. We have built massive sub divisions in the US without building forms of mass transportation to support them. We get everwhere in cars, and thats gonig to have to change if we dont want any of the economic problems that come with peak oil.

 

[jetflyer]

Thank god our government is right on this and enacting HIGHER FUEL EFFICIENCY standards.

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

If you don't think inflation will be a problem consider this:

Borrowed from www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net

Petrochemicals are key components to much more than just the gas in your car. As geologist Dale Allen Pfeiffer points out in his article entitled, "Eating Fossil Fuels," approximately 10 calories of fossil fuels are required to produce every 1 calorie of food eaten in the US.

The size of this ratio stems from the fact that every step of modern food production is fossil fuel and petrochemical powered:

1. Pesticides are made from oil;

2. Commercial fertilizers are made from ammonia, which is
made from natural gas, which will peak about 10 years
after oil peaks;


3. Farming implements such as tractors and trailers are
constructed and powered using oil;

4. Food storage systems such as refrigerators are
manufactured in oil-powered plants, distributed across
oil-powered transportation networks and usually run on
electricity, which most often comes from natural gas or
coal;

5. In the US, the average piece of food is transported
almost 1,500 miles before it gets to your plate. In
Canada, the average piece of food is transported 5,000
miles from where it is produced to where it is consumed.


In short, people gobble oil like two-legged SUVs.


It's not just transportation and agriculture that are entirely dependent on abundant, cheap oil. Modern medicine, water distribution, and national defense are each entirely powered by oil and petroleum derived chemicals.

In addition to transportation, food, water, and modern medicine, mass quantities of oil are required for all plastics, all computers and all high-tech devices.


Some specific examples may help illustrate the degree to which our technological base is dependent on fossil fuels:


1. The construction of an average car consumes the energy
equivalent of approximately 27 barrels (1,142 gallons) of
oil. Ultimately, the construction of a car will consume an
amount of fossil fuels equivalent to twice the car’s
final weight.



2. The production of one gram of microchips consumes 630
grams of fossil fuels. According to the American Chemical
Society, the construction of single 32 megabyte DRAM
chip requires 3.5 pounds of fossil fuels in addition to 70.5
pounds of water.



3. The construction of the average desktop computer
consumes ten times its weight in fossil fuels.



4. The Environmental Literacy Council tells us that due to
the "purity and sophistication of materials (needed for) a
microchip, . . . the energy used in producing nine or ten
computers is enough to produce an automobile."


When considering the role of oil in the production of modern technology, remember that most alternative systems of energy — including solar panels/solar-nanotechnology, windmills, hydrogen fuel cells, biodiesel production facilities, nuclear power plants, etc. — rely on sophisticated technology.


In fact, all electrical devices make use of silver, copper, and/or platinum, each of which is discovered, extracted, transported, and fashioned using oil-powered machinery. For instance, in his book, The Lean Years: Politics of Scarcity, author Richard J. Barnet writes:


To produce a ton of copper requires 112 million BTU's or the
equivalent of 17.8 barrels of oil. The energy cost component
of aluminum is twenty times higher.

Nuclear energy requires uranium, which is also discovered, extracted, and transported using oil-powered machinery.

Most of the feedstock (soybeans, corn) for biofuels such as biodiesel and ethanol are grown using the high-tech, oil-powered industrial methods of agriculture described above.

In short, the so called "alternatives" to oil are actually "derivatives" of oil. Without an abundant and reliable supply of oil, we have no way of scaling these alternatives to the degree necessary to power the modern world.

(Note: alternatives to oil are discussed in depth on Page Two)

Read more at www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Take what you read from MATT SAVINAR at
www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
with a grain of salt.

I think he's a person that's genuinely scared and trying to get people to act, but I don't think things will get as bad as he says.

He does present a convincing argument though. He also backs every single thing up with REFERENCES that can be seen from LINKS attached right there. Especially look at the links to just a couple experts from other fields talking about Peak oil that can be found in the first couple paragraphs.

If you look at his site, explore the links as well, and it will be a good first step for you to learn more.

Jet

 

[ZOTAN]

www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net is a very, very bad source. Its written by an unemployed legal clerk. He likes to believe that peak oil is the end of the world, and that there is no hope for mankind. Humans are a pretty creative bunch and we will find a way out of this problem; how big or small it may be.

What you quoted from him isnt that big of a problem. Like I was saying earlier, when oil becomes to expensive to burn we will switch to something else. The only reason fossil fuels power our food supply is because it is cheap and easy to get a hold of.

EDIT: Jet- If you say we should take what we read from Savinar with a grain of salt, why do you always reference him? Should we take what you say with a grain of salt also? Savinar has facts and information, but he presents them in a way that makes the story completetly different than what it actually is.

 

[klhoard]

.
.
.
Well, I guess the end in near. . .
.
.
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And you heard it right here on FlightInfo.com, folks!!!
.
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Now how are we going to fix this Y3K thing? Did you hear that all of the world's computers are going to crash on midnight on January 1, 3000??
.
.
.

 

[ZOTAN]

.
Now how are we going to fix this Y3K thing? Did you hear that all of the world's computers are going to crash on midnight on January 1, 3000??

I heard about Y3k just a few weeks ago on www.lifeafterthecomputercrash.net. Its right up there on my priority list along with peak oil.

 

[jetflyer]

The best description of what peak oil is, comes from this site below. It does the best job of just describing peak oil. He also doesn't fill you full of all the theoretical problems that Matt Savinar from www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net guesses we will have to face.


Here is the best description:
www.yubanet.com/cgi-bin/artman/exec/view.cgi/8/15426

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Zotan,

I present it because his site actually lets people know there is a problem. I haven't found another site yet that presents and puts together such a convincing argument about the difficulties there will be with peak oil production. He also has many facts in his presentation that are undeniable. He links everything. The only problem with him is he thinks it is impossible to survive Peak Oil as a society. That is complete BS and is why I warn people about that.

I believe if we come together as a society and make sacrifices, put trillions into getting the new technologies to the people, we will be ok after years of troubling times.

First people have to stop DENYING there is even a problem. Then we can discuss how to fix it.

It's also good for people to see the extremes of every issue and then decide where they fall.

Most people the last 10-15 years have only had "WE HAVE ENOUGH OIL TO LAST OUR LIFETIME" BS fed to them.

"As the price goes up, we'll get the expensive oil" --This will slow the decline after peak or CAUSE A PLATEAU at the top, but the decline in oil is going to happen. It's a geological inevitability.

This is a finite resource. Peak oil will happen. It's a MATTER OF WHEN, NOT IF.

Most people don't even know there's a problem.

The only way we as a society are going to overcome the problems is by acting very soon. The more people that see there is a problem, the better our chances of not having the "END OF THE WORLD" like Matt Savinar thinks is going to happen.

Jet

 

[jimcav]

Hey zotan I guess Im an IDIOT because I drive an suv. This according to you. Grow up dude. I drive a Tahoe because I like the ride and I would have a very hard time fitting my wife and 3 kids and black lab in a Honda hybrid. And oh yeah, I can afford it. If you feel like a do gooder by advocating that everyone should drive a pregnant rollerskate then God bless you, but in the meantime stop referring to suv drivers as idiots. We're not as dumb as you think. I would love to see some tree hugger give me this holier than thou attitude to my face ,like at the gas station . Strange enough though it never happens. It sure would be fun if it did.