An oil crash???

[FN FAL]

Good luck world, (I used to say good luck Delta)

Jet

Look at the positive side of this thing, when SHTF...

Homies will not be cruising the hood in their Benzos, perp'n drive by shootings no mo.

Fat middle-aged white men will not be running around on their overpriced Harleys, saving lives with their loud pipes.

Airline crashes will be a thing of the past.

No more Exxon Valdez type oil spills.

The US will have run out reasons to go to the Middle East to sort things out.

The ozone hole will grow shut.

All those snot nosed punks at the auto parts store will be out on their asses.

No more "road rage".

Lawyers will starve to death...or be rendered into soap, leather jackets, and beef jerky...whatever. What would you pay to have a wine skin made from a real lawyer’s bladder?

No more obnoxious assault pickup trucks and SUV’s to contend with.

Chopping wood and tending to hand grown vegetables, will make fat people a thing of the past.

Manatee's will cease just being caricatures on a Florida license plate, since PWC's and fishing boats will no longer keep them from the pursuit of living an unmolested life in the inland waterways.

55,000 Americans a year will not die in needless car accidents every year.

Trains will quit killing teens that do not look before they cross the railroad tracks.

 

[jetflyer]

LOL FN FAL

I don't know why I didn't think of all of those positive results of Peak Oil! What a better world we'll have

Jet

 

[FN FAL]

LOL FN FAL

I don't know why I didn't think of all of those positive results of Peak Oil! What a better world we'll have

Jet

every silver lining has a dark cloud...

 

[xrayojilp]

Oil is a heavily traded commodity, if you know exactly which way its going then make some heavily leveraged futures trades and retire early.

As for now . . .

washingtonpost.com
Oil sets new record at $58.60

By Bernie Woodall
Reuters
Friday, June 17, 2005; 4:13 PM



NEW YORK (Reuters) - Oil prices set a new record of $58.60 a barrel on Friday, after the United States and other Western nations shut consulates in oil-producing Nigeria following a terrorist threat.

Concerns about the ability of U.S. refiners to cope with strong U.S. demand, despite rising fuel costs, also helped propel prices above the record of $58.28 set in April.

U.S. crude hit the record near the end of Friday's trading session on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

In London, Brent crude also hit an all-time high of $57.95 a barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange, breaking the former record of $57.65 set in April.

U.S. crude settled at $58.47 a barrel, up $1.89. Brent settled at $57.76 a barrel, up $1.54.

The new records are for nearest-month futures, which are July delivery for U.S. crude and August delivery for Brent. U.S. December crude futures hit a record of $60.40 a barrel, the all-time high for any monthly contract.

Worries about security of supply were highlighted by the closure in Nigeria of the U.S., German and British consulates in Lagos, after a warning of a terrorist threat.

Nigeria is the world's eighth-largest crude exporter and the fifth-biggest exporter oil to the United States. Its exports to the United States have risen to 1.1 million barrels per day in the most recent government statistics -- about 10 percent of U.S. crude imports.

While there was concern about Nigeria as an oil source, the country continued to produce and export crude on Friday.

U.S. authorities shut their consulate after a threat involving foreign Islamic militants, U.S. military and diplomatic sources said.

Intelligence information from foreign Islamic militant channels indicated a specific threat to the U.S. presence in Nigeria and its Lagos consulate, a diplomatic source said.

Nigeria has been named by Islamic militant leader Osama bin Laden as a candidate for "liberation" and the United States said last month it had uncovered links between his al Qaeda network and Nigerians.

In a survey of industry executives this week in Boston, more than half considered "political upheaval in a strategic country" as the most likely cause of a disruption in oil supply.

DEMAND STRENGTH

Demand strength also supported prices.

U.S. data this week showed brisk consumption of transport fuels, renewing concerns about refiners' ability to meet peak summer gasoline demand and to build heating OIL and diesel FUEL inventories for later in the year.

"There's still high demand, despite the fact that oil's been quite expensive," said Sam Tilley, head of research at brokerage Sucden UK Ltd. "If there is bigger demand than currently, especially later in the year, will the refineries be able to handle it?"

Demand for gasoline over the past four weeks is up 3 percent from a year ago, while consumption of distillates -- diesel, heating oil and jet fuel -- has risen by 6.5 percent, U.S. government data showed this week.

The strength of demand in the face of high prices has surprised some analysts, but a recent study showed that U.S. retail fuel prices have not risen as much in the past 20 years as many other consumer goods have.

While gasoline is up 67 percent since 1984, all consumer goods are up 92 percent, according to the study by consultancy John S. Herold.

"Even for unleaded regular selling for well over $2 a gallon, gasoline expenditures represent less than 15 percent of the average yearly cost of operating a full-size passenger car," the study said.

U.S. crude inventories are 9 percent up year-on-year. But dealers are worried that spare world production capacity is limited now to heavy-sulfur crude from Saudi Arabia, which needs the type of advanced refinery technology that is already fully employed.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries this week agreed to raise its production limits by 500,000 barrels per day from July, and put another 500,000 bpd on the market soon if prices remained high.

But Saudi Arabia, the only OPEC member with significant production capacity to spare, said it is already meeting demand for as much as it can sell.

© 2005 Reuters

 

[Traderd]

Look at the positive side of this thing, when SHTF...


55,000 Americans a year will not die in needless car accidents every year.

Interesting qaulifying description of car accidents. This would leave one to suppose there are "needed" car accidents.

I could start a list but I would likely "offend" a lot of princess lovers out there.....

 

[some_dude]

I already posted a bunch of links and info regarding some different views on peak oil in this thread:

http://forums.flightinfo.com/showthread.php?t=55719

I'm not going to take the time to repost everything here.

However, on the subject of the Morgan Stanley guy, I think he has a very real chance of being right. The history of oil prices has been periods of high prices followed by a crash. This is because there is a long lead time to both developing extra capacity and slowing demand. If extra capacity comes on line about the same time that demand slows, the result is much lower prices.

This is why many of the large oil companies are so wary about adding capacity.

 

[100LL... Again!]

Correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't it take several weeks for oil price changes to affect pump prices substantially?

 

[klhoard]

If extra capacity comes on line about the same time that demand slows, the result is much lower prices.

This is why many of the large oil companies are so wary about adding capacity.

.
.
.
So. . . . what' you're saying is that we need more LCC's to get into the oil / gas business??
.
.
.

 

[jetflyer]

Exxon predicts NON-OPEC oil will PEAK in 5 years. Exxon is probably even being conservative. Until May they were saying decades not 5 years. They don't want to cause a panic.

Here is my source: http://www.thebulletin.org/article.php?art_ofn=mj05cavallo

"Without any press conferences, grand announcements, or hyperbolic advertising campaigns, the Exxon Mobil Corporation, one of the world's largest publicly owned petroleum companies, has quietly joined the ranks of those who are predicting an impending plateau in non-OPEC oil production.
Their report, The Outlook for Energy: A 2030 View, forecasts a peak in just five years."

Jet

 

[jetflyer]

Read the transcript of one of the most CONSERVATIVE Congressman in the HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES.
This Speech was given by Maryland
Congressman Roscoe Bartlett to the HOUSE on MAY 3, 2005 about PEAK OIL:

http://www.energybulletin.net/5948.html


He says that the WORLD will peak within 5 years. He also has a great description of how the World is going to feel the pain of Peak Oil before the peak because SUPPLY will start not being met by DEMAND. DEMAND will probably not be met by SUPPLY in the FOURTH QUARTER OF THIS YEAR. Many experts including the Iranian analyst whose comments I posted earlier in this thread predict the Demand shortfall in the 4th quarter. That is the main reason for the RUN UP OF OIL PRICES to record highs on Friday.

Read the transcript from Roscoe Bartlett. He is one sharp cookie

He should be applauded for trying to educate the sheeple that their lives are going to change forever if they don't start acting BEFORE the peak is reached. If we're on the downside of the peak when we act inflation is going to be really, really ugly and the economy is going to be in such a recession that overcoming the problems is going to be difficult without the world going into a severe DEPRESSION.

We need to start funding alternatives now.

Jet