Michael Derchin of FTN Equity Capital Markets has revised his earnings estimates for Q2 and full year 2009, and he now sees AMR and UAL both posting annual losses in excess of $1 billion.
Derchin said the revisions were "to reflect lower than previously expected unit revenues and higher jet fuel prices." He is now expecting jet fuel to cost about $85 a barrel, up from $75 from his previous estimates.
In a report out Tuesday morning, Derchin projects that AMR, parent of American Airlines, will lose $5.20 a share, or just under $1.5 billion. That is significantly worst that the First Call consensus of a $2.25 per-share loss, or his own $2.36 loss before revisions.
For UAL, parent of United Airlines, Derchin predicts an $8.90 per-share loss, or just under $1.3 billion. First Call consensus is sitting at $7.97.
In an interesting note, Derchin sees five of the top nine U.S. carriers losing money, but four of them making money. The five losers collectively would lose $3.85 billion, while the three winners collectively would earn $490 million.
Below is a chart with Derchin's new estimates. The calculations are based on the most recent share counts (diluted) that I could find (net income and shares in millions):
CompanyIncome per shareSharesNet incomeAMR($5.20)280 ($1,456)UAL($8.90)145 ($1,291)US Airways($3.93)132 ($518)Delta($0.39)825 ($322)Continental($2.13)124 ($264)JetBlue$0.20 275 $55 Alaska$2.94 36 $107 Southwest$0.18 740 $133 AirTran$1.41 138 $195
As a side note, the International Air Transport Association said Tuesday that airlines worldwide lost about $3.1 billion in the first quarter, including $574 million among the 22 North American carriers that it included.
"This deterioration was before the recent rise in fuel prices and was due mostly to the fall in revenues, as a sharp fall in yields added to the impact of weak travel and freight volumes," IATA noted
AS is doing fine... 2.94 per share is twice the next best number that is expected at AAI and miles in front of everyone else. Cash and assets this place looks like APPL compared to the rest of this industry. Our management culture here has always been very conservative. I would think it would bee a good time to grow and keep everyone working but that doesn't seem to be the path management is taking.