Airtran-Midwest getting closer to a deal?

[RIDETHELIGHTING]

From what Im hearing there will be a 1-4 intergration, and a fence. So as long as there is a fence that will protect the upgrade for the fo`s on property now. No facts, just rumored.

 

[Kenney G]

The plan on the merger presentation from the web show the md80's to be gone by the end of the year. I belive they will take 14 737s and get rid of 13 80's

 

[Lear70]

The plan on the merger presentation from the web show the md80's to be gone by the end of the year. I believe they will take 14 737s and get rid of 13 80's

Bingo.

The management bigwigs want to replace the MD80's ASAP. That would mean almost ZERO upgrades for at least one year (attrition only which is 2-3 a month historically from what I can see).

THEN if you do a 1 for 4 seniority integration (which is a HUGE windfall to the Midwest F/O's), and you put 15 more 737's online in 2008 means about 1/3 of the (now) 2nd year guys get to upgrade with our current delivery schedule the rest would be Midwest F/O's who were anywhere from a few months to a few YEARS away from upgrade.

Then the music stops.

If you have hired on here in the last two years and this deal goes through, you will NOT see Captain for the next 5-7 years unless we buy more planes. Period. Our attrition just isn't that high, especially on the CA side.

If you hire on here in the next 6 months, you will likely be stuck as an F/O for up to a decade and at least 1 year on reserve, possibly longer, again unless we buy more planes.

It's really very simple math - I made a LOT of money base-hopping at my last job by being able to determine seat vacancies based on aircraft deliveries and this one should scare the bejeezus out of any F/O who has less than 2 years on property with AAI.

If the deal goes through and we don't staple, anyone who isn't already a CA or isn't CURRENTLY at AAI within 4-6 months of upgrade won't see the left seat with the current delivery schedule. Everything hinges on whether or not you believe the company will continue to buy new planes after this delivery schedule ends.

The only exception to all of this would be if they create the fences so as to lock the Midwest F/O's out of contention for upgrades (fenced them into their current seat and domicile). If they did this, the AAI F/O's who are currently within 2 years of upgrade would be OK. Otherwise,,,

 

[Ty Webb]

Just a question for the AirTran guys:

1) What is the crew/plane ratio? I'm trying to find out how long upgrade would be if I get on in 07, and this Midex deal is done.

About 12 pilots per plane, if you include mngmnt, mil leave, training, etc.

 

[bendover]

airtran currently has something like 65 firm orders for 737's. even if they get rid of the 11 md80's that midwest has that leaves 54 more to be dilivered over the next 4 yrs. So I don't know where you think that there will be no movements for 5-7 years. .. I agree with a merger it may delay the current fo's upgrade up to another year. but with 65 more aircraft coming it hardly stops. I beleive a ratio and some kind of 2-3 yr.fence would be fair.

 

[TV9Driver]

if there is a fence, yeah it would be fair. But, if there isn't then a percentage of the captain slots that would have gone to Airtran f/os would then be going to Midwest f/os - effectively shutting the door on Airtran f/os that originally would have had those slots. I've been here just under 2 years, so this is of big concern to me. Let me say this though, I'm not a fan of the staple. There needs to be a fair integration (ie we don't take any of their slots and they don't take any of ours). I think a 3 year fence might do that.

Also, lest you think a 1 year delay in upgrade is insignificant, it would mean a difference of about $55-60K in pay. That's basically double f/o's make now.

 

[SkiFishFly]

I've been here a little more than a year and this deal concerns me greatly. I am working on putting my flight time into a legit logbook and considering applying elsewhere. I don't like the uncertainty of what this deal/integration might do to my potential to upgrade with AirTran.
If the FO pay rates were brought up - then it would not be so bad to accept the delay in upgrade.

 

[Lear70]

5-7 years is the number for AirTran pilots currently on the bottom 1/4 of the seniority list to upgrade IF the deal goes through with a 1 for 4 seniority integration with NO fences to protect the F/O's.

63 aircraft still on firm order, but delivery dates have been deferred. ALL 13 aircraft next year to replace the MD80's means no upgrades or movement for one year (or very close to zero, attrition only). That means if you're on reserve, you're gonna be on reserve for another year PLUS however long it takes to move the list (a much bigger list) and hire more people.

That leaves 50 aircraft to be delivered.

I believe the number is 15 deliveries in 2008. Haven't heard a firm 2009 / 2010 delivery schedule yet, so I can only go on what I KNOW for FACT we will be taking delivery of.

We have approximately 1500 pilots on the list at AAI now. Assuming approximately 380 Midwest Pilots makes a combined seniority of about 1,880 people.

Assuming half of their pilots (or close to it) are CA's, half are F/O's, with a 1 for 4 seniority integration their most junior CA would be equivalent to our pilots at around the 760 CURRENT AirTran list range, combined list 950.

With that seniority mix, you'd stick approximately 75-100 F/O's on the list AHEAD of AirTran F/O's who have been here 2 1/2 - 3 years and are about to upgrade.

15 deliveries in 2008 staffing at 6 crews per aircraft = 90 CA slots plus attrition at 2 CA's per month = 114 CA slots for 2008.

IF deliveries continue at the same pace, you get yet another 114 slots for 2009 which just barely takes us through the top 1/4 of the nearly 1,000 F/O's on a combined list at the time of merger.

You'd then put yet another 75-100 Midwest pilots in front of the AirTran pilots hired in the last 2 years. Yet another 2 years of upgrades to get through those guys which is 2009 and 2010.

THEN,,, that's the end of deliveries currently on order. Period. WILL they purchase more? Depends if the company is doing well. If they are, then probably so. If not...

Even if more deliveries come at about the same pace, we have yet another 75-100 Midwest pilots in front of the AirTran pilots hired in the last year (which includes me about to hit my 1st year anniversary). Same aircraft delivery schedule, upgrade some time in 2011 or 2012, about 5 years from now.

If you're a F/O about to hit your 3rd year and upgrade, you can look at another year to year and a half in the right seat at quite possibly the lowest paying major in the country. Midwest guys who weren't expecting to upgrade in the next 1-2 years will be upgrading ahead of you.

If you're an F/O about to hit your 2nd year and were expecting to upgrade in the next 12-18 months, you can count on about 3 years instead. Midwest guys who weren't expecting to upgrade in the next 3-4 years will be upgrading ahead of you.

If you're an F/O just coming up on your 1st year anniversary and were expecting to upgrade in 2 years or so can now count on 5 years instead. Midwest guys who weren't expecting to upgrade in the next 5-6 years will be upgrading ahead of you.

That's a pretty big windfall to a pilot to have his upgrade time cut in half while it's a pretty big slap in the face to tell someone their upgrade time is now doubled.

I understand that aviation is never a certainty, but this isn't a market force or a 9/11 set of events, it's a CREATED set of circumstances that wouldn't occur if the company didn't buy Midwest. The company bears the responsibility to either protect their CURRENT employees or compensate us for the lost upgrade opportunities.

All that is based on having no fences. They put up a 4-5 year fence and protect my upgrade that I signed on to this company for, then I have no beef with it. If they don't, I'm hosed, as are several hundred other junior F/O's, and will continue to drop as many days as they will let me so I can continue to work on my side jobs to earn a REAL income for my family.

 

[Lear70]

Oh, incidentally, for someone like me who is looking at 5 more years on F/O pay instead of upgrading in 2 more years per a projected delivery schedule without a merger, that's a direct cost to my pocketbook of 3 years missed CA's pay, adjusted for today's dollars of approximately $175,000.

Now do you get the picture why I'm so concerned?

There HAVE to be fences to protect our upgrades or there will be a mass exodus by many F/O's who aren't interested in trying to live on the worst pay scale in the majors for more than half a decade (at HOW much cost to the company to train and replace an F/O?)

A lot of us are already putting the apps in elsewhere to hedge our bets.

 

[crashpad]

Yeah, it $ucks. At least if you had some kind of representation, you could put up a brave fight. But you gotta admit there's something to be said for a strong pilot group, and the Midex pilots have worked hard for that. I said before, they will win big time if this meger goes through. They will take and take until they've had their fill...that's a big price to pay, but should be beneficial to all about 10 years down the road. Just bad timing for the Tran pilots with less than five years seniority.