Airtran-Midwest getting closer to a deal?

[TV9Driver]

if there is a fence, yeah it would be fair. But, if there isn't then a percentage of the captain slots that would have gone to Airtran f/os would then be going to Midwest f/os - effectively shutting the door on Airtran f/os that originally would have had those slots. I've been here just under 2 years, so this is of big concern to me. Let me say this though, I'm not a fan of the staple. There needs to be a fair integration (ie we don't take any of their slots and they don't take any of ours). I think a 3 year fence might do that.

Also, lest you think a 1 year delay in upgrade is insignificant, it would mean a difference of about $55-60K in pay. That's basically double f/o's make now.

 

[SkiFishFly]

I've been here a little more than a year and this deal concerns me greatly. I am working on putting my flight time into a legit logbook and considering applying elsewhere. I don't like the uncertainty of what this deal/integration might do to my potential to upgrade with AirTran.
If the FO pay rates were brought up - then it would not be so bad to accept the delay in upgrade.

 

[Lear70]

5-7 years is the number for AirTran pilots currently on the bottom 1/4 of the seniority list to upgrade IF the deal goes through with a 1 for 4 seniority integration with NO fences to protect the F/O's.

63 aircraft still on firm order, but delivery dates have been deferred. ALL 13 aircraft next year to replace the MD80's means no upgrades or movement for one year (or very close to zero, attrition only). That means if you're on reserve, you're gonna be on reserve for another year PLUS however long it takes to move the list (a much bigger list) and hire more people.

That leaves 50 aircraft to be delivered.

I believe the number is 15 deliveries in 2008. Haven't heard a firm 2009 / 2010 delivery schedule yet, so I can only go on what I KNOW for FACT we will be taking delivery of.

We have approximately 1500 pilots on the list at AAI now. Assuming approximately 380 Midwest Pilots makes a combined seniority of about 1,880 people.

Assuming half of their pilots (or close to it) are CA's, half are F/O's, with a 1 for 4 seniority integration their most junior CA would be equivalent to our pilots at around the 760 CURRENT AirTran list range, combined list 950.

With that seniority mix, you'd stick approximately 75-100 F/O's on the list AHEAD of AirTran F/O's who have been here 2 1/2 - 3 years and are about to upgrade.

15 deliveries in 2008 staffing at 6 crews per aircraft = 90 CA slots plus attrition at 2 CA's per month = 114 CA slots for 2008.

IF deliveries continue at the same pace, you get yet another 114 slots for 2009 which just barely takes us through the top 1/4 of the nearly 1,000 F/O's on a combined list at the time of merger.

You'd then put yet another 75-100 Midwest pilots in front of the AirTran pilots hired in the last 2 years. Yet another 2 years of upgrades to get through those guys which is 2009 and 2010.

THEN,,, that's the end of deliveries currently on order. Period. WILL they purchase more? Depends if the company is doing well. If they are, then probably so. If not...

Even if more deliveries come at about the same pace, we have yet another 75-100 Midwest pilots in front of the AirTran pilots hired in the last year (which includes me about to hit my 1st year anniversary). Same aircraft delivery schedule, upgrade some time in 2011 or 2012, about 5 years from now.

If you're a F/O about to hit your 3rd year and upgrade, you can look at another year to year and a half in the right seat at quite possibly the lowest paying major in the country. Midwest guys who weren't expecting to upgrade in the next 1-2 years will be upgrading ahead of you.

If you're an F/O about to hit your 2nd year and were expecting to upgrade in the next 12-18 months, you can count on about 3 years instead. Midwest guys who weren't expecting to upgrade in the next 3-4 years will be upgrading ahead of you.

If you're an F/O just coming up on your 1st year anniversary and were expecting to upgrade in 2 years or so can now count on 5 years instead. Midwest guys who weren't expecting to upgrade in the next 5-6 years will be upgrading ahead of you.

That's a pretty big windfall to a pilot to have his upgrade time cut in half while it's a pretty big slap in the face to tell someone their upgrade time is now doubled.

I understand that aviation is never a certainty, but this isn't a market force or a 9/11 set of events, it's a CREATED set of circumstances that wouldn't occur if the company didn't buy Midwest. The company bears the responsibility to either protect their CURRENT employees or compensate us for the lost upgrade opportunities.

All that is based on having no fences. They put up a 4-5 year fence and protect my upgrade that I signed on to this company for, then I have no beef with it. If they don't, I'm hosed, as are several hundred other junior F/O's, and will continue to drop as many days as they will let me so I can continue to work on my side jobs to earn a REAL income for my family.

 

[Lear70]

Oh, incidentally, for someone like me who is looking at 5 more years on F/O pay instead of upgrading in 2 more years per a projected delivery schedule without a merger, that's a direct cost to my pocketbook of 3 years missed CA's pay, adjusted for today's dollars of approximately $175,000.

Now do you get the picture why I'm so concerned?

There HAVE to be fences to protect our upgrades or there will be a mass exodus by many F/O's who aren't interested in trying to live on the worst pay scale in the majors for more than half a decade (at HOW much cost to the company to train and replace an F/O?)

A lot of us are already putting the apps in elsewhere to hedge our bets.

 

[crashpad]

Yeah, it $ucks. At least if you had some kind of representation, you could put up a brave fight. But you gotta admit there's something to be said for a strong pilot group, and the Midex pilots have worked hard for that. I said before, they will win big time if this meger goes through. They will take and take until they've had their fill...that's a big price to pay, but should be beneficial to all about 10 years down the road. Just bad timing for the Tran pilots with less than five years seniority.

 

[Remington]

I imagine that the age 65rule getting passed would make all this worse?

 

[Lear70]

I imagine that the age 65rule getting passed would make all this worse?

Not by much.

You're talking a difference of probably 10-20 guys a year (combined list) for the next 5 years, 10-15% or about 2-4 months extra to upgrade.

Crashpad, I don't think the Midwest guys will do quite as well as you think. If they had THAT kind of clout they'd get Date Of Hire, but I don't think that's going to happen.

The CA's here have excellent representation. Everything at this airline is about the CA, one of the few holdout airlines with that mentality. Understandably so, even in recent times, when the F/O's have been willing to shut up and hunker down until upgrade since upgrade has been so relatively quick the last 5 years.

How will that change if it suddenly looks like you won't upgrade for an additional 3, 5, or 7 years? Will the F/O's suddenly develop a more serious voice? Only time will tell.

What needs to happen:

At the VERY first indication that the shareholders are going to accept this purchase, EVERY single F/O needs to email / call their representatives AND the senior management here about fences, career expectations, and the cost to the company if suddenly 500-750 F/O's find themselves facing several more years to upgrade and decide to leave (not to mention the next hiring boom already starting amongst other majors with MUCH better long-term F/O pay scales).

The squeaky wheel gets the grease, and will help mitigate whatever damage a well-organized and unified pilot group (Midwest) would accomplish during seniority integration talks / arbitration. Even mitigated however, it still has the potential for serious damage.

A 3-year fence wouldn't do the trick for all the F/O's currently on property, it would need to be upwards of 4-5.

As far as being beneficial for ALL 10 years down the road? Maybe it will START being beneficial by then for the junior guys...

 

[Ty Webb]

Yeah, it $ucks. At least if you had some kind of representation, you could put up a brave fight. .

We do have representation, and a pretty sizable M/A contingency fund. If our goal was to wrest something out of it that was more than we should receive (ie, a staple) we have the horsepower to do it . . . . . but is it the right thing to do?

I don't think so. There is a precedent, from the Valujet/AirTran merger, which followed the Allegheny/Mohawk precedent. It will likely be relative seniority, with fences.

I don't think it will be as doom/gloom as Lear70, but I sure understand his frustration. I think the upgrades will come to much of a halt for a one year period while the MD80 guys get transitioned, but we will probably grow at a rate after that that would be greater then previous, and there will be more airplanes ordered, rest assured.

When I hired on in 2001, I was told to be ready to upgrade in a year. There were upgrades during that time of 11 months, in some cases (on the DC9). Then, they made the decision to do away with the DC9, and the 717 deliveries, instead of being growth, became replacement deliveries. The upgrades pretty much stopped as the transition training went on. Some DC9 Captains didn't have the seniority to hold 717 CA and were downgraded to FO. Everyone else pretty much stayed where they were for about 18 months or so . . It sucked for everyone, except the guys at the top. My one year upgrade became three.

Then, the music started again, and the growth/movement continued. . . . and I imagine this will be pretty much the same- at least in that regard.

 

[Remington]

Or, SWA buys Airtran, keeps the -700s, and sells the 717s to MEH?

 

[400ADude]

Or, SWA buys Airtran, keeps the -700s, and sells the 717s to MEH?

Not unlikely. What is Airtran worth? 500-750 million. At least the Airtran guys would get preferential interviews..............at Midwest!:laugh:

 

[Lear70]

I don't think it will be as doom/gloom as Lear70, but I sure understand his frustration. I think the upgrades will come to much of a halt for a one year period while the MD80 guys get transitioned, but we will probably grow at a rate after that that would be greater then previous, and there will be more airplanes ordered, rest assured.

(HeeHaw music) "DOOOOMMM, DesPAAAAIRRR, and agony on me. DEEP DARK DEPREESSION, excessive misery..." LOL

That's one possibility that could change the balance at least somewhat: an accelerated delivery schedule.

Question is, would the airline try to slow down some and get a handle on things for a year or two following the acquisition and MD80 replacements or just blast ahead and accelerate the deliveries for a Mid-west / West Coast expansion (excuse the pun, unintended).

Again, only time will tell. But would you take that chance? If you were a 1st or 2nd year F/O and got the call from SWA or CAL, would you stay or would you go where you KNOW the F/O pay scale for 5-7 years would beat AirTran by more than $100,000 over that period? That's a lot of money to give up for an uncertain gamble of accelerated growth here.

A lot of guys, including myself, were planning on making AirTran a career, but can we afford not only to never make as much as our peer groups (union DVD presentation) but ALSO getting dinged on F/O pay for 20% of our remaining careers (assuming average age in the mid-30's with 25 years or so left until Age 60)?

Hard questions. You'd be a fool not to ask them. The only choices are to hedge your bets NOW, make sure our voice and concerns are heard by Management and the NPA, then make a decision for ourselves and our family when the outcome is decided.

 

[BR715]

Let's just worry about it after if happens. In my opinion Midwest does not want it so it will not happen. Enjoy your holiday's and try not to worry so much!

 

[Phaedrus]

Lear: I'm by no means advocating you bail on AirTran, but you're concerns were exactly mine when I left there over the summer. Too much instability and too many unknowns for my personal taste. That was before the Midwest announcement. I wish you luck in whatever you decide to do.

 

[jobear]

The way AirTran has been shopping for a new partner does seem to me to be a bit weird. Or is it the grow or die mentaily? Not looking to flame anyone just askin'.

Jobear

 

[Lear70]

Thanks, Phaedrus.

I really, really like it here (pay and the Midwest issues aside). I've flown with only 2 guys I wouldn't care to fly with again out of several dozen, the schedules have been good (even on reserve I drop down to 14-15 days off and credit 80-85 hours), and I like that they mostly leave us alone to come fly our trips and go home. It's such a far cry from what I came from that I have a hard time even contemplating going through the angst of another interview, training cycle, etc, but...

I just can't afford to sit 5-7 years as an F/O. If I'm going to do that, I might as well go to CAL or SWA where the F/O pay is good after 1st year or, God willing, Purple or Brown (not that I want to do 6-8 day stints in foreign countries, but I miss cargo). Not that I have all those options, but I have friends at almost every carrier and would hope that I could get at least an interview at one of them...

For me it HAS to be about the money at this point in my career. I've had my fun flying Lears and such and now that I have a family, I have to make enough money to re-start my retirement savings that's been ransacked now after 9/11 and again after taking a $35,000 pay cut to come here.

I can't do that on $40k, $50k, or even $60k a year with a wife, two kids (possibly soon to be 3 and if that happens, someone's tubes are getting tied), and a mortgage unless we live like paupers and you HAVE to have at least SOME life, who knows if you're going to get hit by a truck at 40...?

Don't want to obsess over it, but like I said, you'd be crazy not to take all of this into account.