AirTran MEC Chair message.

[Lear70]

So what Lear said earlier, 1/3 of the pilot group would love to go to delta. That's about 575 pilots.

I think the number would be higher with a Date-of-Hire arbitration award with CA seat protections; if there was such a thing, it would go nearly straight-line seniority to the maximum number allowed to go.

MaxBlast being one of the few exceptions...

Not to stir the pot (that's Dan's job!), but I have a question for you in-the-know Airtran ALPA guys. I believe you said if "30% of planes or seatmiles go in a single year..." is the language that triggers the clause in your CBA. Is that right?

If you started with 88 717s and 55-odd 737s, and no more than 36 717s go to Delta in any single year, is that even triggering that clause? Thirty-six airplanes in a year sounds like about 25% of 143 aircraft, not 30%. I realize that assumes the same utilization rate between the two fleets, if seatmiles is indeed the applicable metric, but I'm just spitballing here. Is there something I'm missing? Thanks for your input; I'm more curious here than anything.

I like the real questions and debate, it's good stuff, helps us understand each other and what really is going on, discussions on your SL14 are a good example too, I like to know what is going on over there since it looks increasingly like we all will need to row in the same direction.

To answer your question, first, it's not aircraft, it's block hours and the 717 has a higher block hour utilization than the 737 due to the fact that, often, when we reach a west coast or international city, the 737 stops flying until the redeye or the next day, whereas the 717 can keep hopping short hops all day until midnight then has the EMO the next morning.

Second, it's a single-year look-back. So right now, it's 88 717's and 52 737's after the ones already out of the equation. With them taking 16 717's in 2013, that leaves us with 72 717's and 52 737's, 124 aircraft worth of block hours to consider. Taking 36 717's away from 124 in 2014 is just over 30% in terms of block hours.

Hope that helps.

 

[PCL_128]

So what Lear said earlier, 1/3 of the pilot group would love to go to delta. That's about 575 pilots.

I would say that 1/3 of the pilot group would want to go even if it was a pure staple. Maybe even without longevity. If you make it a fair integration, then I think the number climbs to well over 1,000.

 

[Secret Squirrel]

I hope it works like you think. It would be nice to have options. I have seen way too many people disappointed because of what they think our contract guarantees us. ALPA writes a contract based on what they think management is going to do. Management writes it based on what they are really going to do.

 

[Crash Pad]

DOH and 1700 want to go. Staple with zero longevity and 500 stapled FOs decide if a 20 year upgrade is better or worse than a ten year upgrade.

 

[Lear70]

I hope it works like you think. It would be nice to have options. I have seen way too many people disappointed because of what they think our contract guarantees us. ALPA writes a contract based on what they think management is going to do. Management writes it based on what they are really going to do.

LOL - that's the first thing I've agreed with you about in a while...

Like has been said, there's always legal wiggle room in "commercial best effort", but with a growing, thriving company, it's hard to say they didn't try to throw ANY money at the deal yet it was their "commercial best effort". I'm not expecting they worked something out, but we'll see.

 

[Lear70]

DOH and 1700 want to go. Staple with zero longevity and 500 stapled FOs decide if a 20 year upgrade is better or worse than a ten year upgrade.

Closer to a 14-year upgrade for me, 18 for PCL, staying at SWA.

Delta will retire 60% of their seniority list in the next 10 years. That's a fact, assuming age 65 doesn't turn into 68 or 70, in which case ALL bets are off, including at SWA.

Assuming only the bottom 500 wanted to go with a staple and no longevity (which doesn't include me, incidentally), they would upgrade at Delta in 12-14 years... sooner than they would at Southwest.

We've worked the numbers and have a pretty good feel for how many would want to go versus who would want to stay. Not sure PCL is right about his 500 number with a pure staple and NO longevity, basically a new-hire, but I'm sure you'd get at least a 1/2 of the people who were stapled. From a money standpoint, you'd be a fool not to go if you are under 35 with no kids. You'd have to want the SWA bases / culture, etc to stay in that case.

If it's all about the money, you'll make quite a bit more at Delta over your entire career if you're under 35. 35-40 it gets fuzzier. 45+, you stay at Southwest with your longevity in place.

 

[DonVerita]

DOH and 1700 want to go. Staple with zero longevity and 500 stapled FOs decide if a 20 year upgrade is better or worse than a ten year upgrade.

It's going to take more than that.

DOH or better AND CA seat protection = 1700 want to go, but it would be more like 1000 because that is the approx. number of 717 pilots on property now.

If it were staple with or without longevity, then only the most junior would go. Stapling is bad juju and bad karma in ALPA's book by the way. That wouldn't help SWA pilots because most of them are more senior due to the lopsided SLI. That wouldn't help ATN junior and mid-level CA's because it would just be trading one bad ride for another.

But...if ATN CA's are awarded the protections stated above, then it is a win/win. SWA gets to offload a big slice of pissed off ATN pilots. That in turn removes the downward pressure on SWA senior F/O's and junior CA's regarding base displacement/ROR as well as improves the upgrade time for SWA F/O's because the ATN pilots who leave will create a need for new-hires to fill the void. ATN pilots get the seniority and seat protection at DAL that they should have gotten at SWA and to boot get to stay on the same plane they are comfortable with (albeit with a probable equipment lock so as not to displace DAL pilots off of larger and better paying aircraft). DAL gets a highly experienced turnkey operation with almost no associated training costs other than basic indoc stuff. DALPA gets 88 planes that their people can get into if they want after some sort of equipment fence expires and since the ATN pilots come with the planes, there is no net loss of DALPA pilots or upgrade potential that wasn't there pre-merger.

 

[waveflyer]

The point is Don, your pilots would have to make the choice before knowing what kind of seniority deal you'd get. But I actually love that you guys are seriously considering this. A choice is always better in these kinds of situations.

 

[Citrusflyer]

My guess is that if the DAL TA is really tied to the 717's coming over (of which I have my doubts, but it's the stated 'fact') AND along with that the DAL pilots are going to get a significant slice of AT pilots to go with it, they'll flush this thing in a NY minute.

To play devil's advocate ... if there's a choice to go DAL and the scenario plays out that the AT guys are basically stapled, what happens (from an ALPA standpoint) IF not enough AT pilots want to go to Delta? Do they then have to force guys over there to meet whatever fragmentation limits are set? There's still potential to jump right out of the frying pan and straight into the fire ...

 

[Lear70]

But...if ATN CA's are awarded the protections stated above, then it is a win/win.

For everyone except Delta and DALPA. I explained this a bit above.

DAL gets a highly experienced turnkey operation with almost no associated training costs other than basic indoc stuff.

And inherits 1,000 pilots at year 6-12 longevity instead of new-hires. That's a lot of money.

DALPA gets 88 planes that their people can get into if they want after some sort of equipment fence expires and since the ATN pilots come with the planes, there is no net loss of DALPA pilots or upgrade potential that wasn't there pre-merger.

That's not what DALPA will see. DALPA is selling the 717 deliveries to their membership as upgrades for all their senior F/O's. If we come with the planes with CA protections, those CA seats for their senior F/O's are gone, not to mention their F/O's will have us slotted in through their ranks. It doesn't increase their upgrade times significantly because our planes come with us, but it does dilute their bidding power.

They aren't going to see that as a "win" when they're expecting all those CA seats and new-hires below them to fill those F/O seats. That's going to be a fight, just like it was with Southwest. Guaranteed.

Which is why I still continue to believe it wasn't included in the deal...