I agree, mostly.
However, I think that's different this time is that with fuel prices soaring to permanent, very high levels (if, in fact, they are), US airlines are looking at a permanent contraction of significant levels.
Until they get there, there simply are too many planes chasing too few ticket holders. Now gas may drop, or the "magic fuel" may be developed, and we'll be back to the traditional days of easy entry of new capacity into the market.
Personally, I think those days are pretty much over. Many small and a couple of big airlines are going to fail, and the survivors MAY be able to eek out a small profit from a much smaller passenger base when all is said and done.