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Full pay to the last day!
After 30 failed years of, 'we don't have to make money, we just have to lose less and out last the other guy,' theory it's time to bury the elimination of overcapacity theory in this business as well. I know it comes from ECON 101 supply and demand, but there is zero evidence that the airline industry that supports the overcapacity theory. Airlines have come and gone since deregulation, but their capacity always gets picked up and more passengers continue to travel on planes with historically high load factors. What makes people think that if any of the usual suspect carriers fail that their capacity won't be replaced? Braniff's capacity was more than suitably replaced by AA, DL, and even WN in Dallas, Pan Am and TWA in NY were replaced by Delta, AA, and even CO in EWR. Eastern in ATL by DL and Air Tran and so on. Pittsburgh and St. Louis are the main two hubsites that have been lost but their capacity has not been lost. The allure of market share and the incredible barriers to entry that this industry creates with acquisition of slots and real estate at airports all add into the likelihood that carriers will move quickly to fill any true voids caused by failed carriers.
I agree, mostly.
However, I think that's different this time is that with fuel prices soaring to permanent, very high levels (if, in fact, they are), US airlines are looking at a permanent contraction of significant levels.
Until they get there, there simply are too many planes chasing too few ticket holders. Now gas may drop, or the "magic fuel" may be developed, and we'll be back to the traditional days of easy entry of new capacity into the market.
Personally, I think those days are pretty much over. Many small and a couple of big airlines are going to fail, and the survivors MAY be able to eek out a small profit from a much smaller passenger base when all is said and done.