ABX update

[xspud]

Any recalls or hiring next year?

It seems like that question deserves some response but the fact is nobody can say for certain whether there will ever be any recalls or hiring at ABX.

My opinion is that ABX will be around for the long haul and that eventually we will need to recall/hire. My question is whether ABX will be a smaller company down the road (ie: 50-60 767's) or whether we grow back to the size we were. Which direction we go depends a lot on factors that are out of our control. In my opinion, ABX has a pretty good handle on where we are and a pretty good strategy for the future, but whether it pans out is anybody's guess.

My guess for 2007 into 2008 is that 767's will replace DC8's, the DC8 crews will be absorbed into the other airplanes, so that would postpone recall/hiring. We have more 767's coming than we have active DC8's, but how many DC9's will be flying a year from now? There's no replacement aircraft on the horizon, but the DC9 is not the "airplane of the future" (of course, neither is the 727/DC8-70/A300).

Based on the above, my guess is that we won't see any recall/hiring in early 2007.

I hope that I'm wrong and that they start calling everyone back in January!

 

[abxaviator]

Like xspud said, the US fleet DHL has flying for them is NOT a long-term fleet with the exception of the 767's. Just as FedEx recently announced long-term plans to replace their entire 727 fleet with 90 757's, the DHL group needs also to come up with a fleet replacement plan. Until such plans are made known (if they ever are) there will be very little upon which to surmise what the future may look like.

 

[AV8OR]

It seems like that question deserves some response but the fact is nobody can say for certain whether there will ever be any recalls or hiring at ABX.

My opinion is that ABX will be around for the long haul and that eventually we will need to recall/hire. My question is whether ABX will be a smaller company down the road (ie: 50-60 767's) or whether we grow back to the size we were. Which direction we go depends a lot on factors that are out of our control. In my opinion, ABX has a pretty good handle on where we are and a pretty good strategy for the future, but whether it pans out is anybody's guess.

My guess for 2007 into 2008 is that 767's will replace DC8's, the DC8 crews will be absorbed into the other airplanes, so that would postpone recall/hiring. We have more 767's coming than we have active DC8's, but how many DC9's will be flying a year from now? There's no replacement aircraft on the horizon, but the DC9 is not the "airplane of the future" (of course, neither is the 727/DC8-70/A300).

Based on the above, my guess is that we won't see any recall/hiring in early 2007.

I hope that I'm wrong and that they start calling everyone back in January!

Amazing isn't it X. DHL rolls into the US, gives UPS and FedEx the finger on national television to the tune of 150 Mill, spends 300 mill on a brand new hub , then another 300 mill to buy the old hub, paints everything by-God yellow, flys 20-40 yearold aircraft at 1/3-1/2 of their competition's pay rates and work rules, (while we give them outstanding performance, DHL's assesment, not mine) and then has the gall to whine about costs. Socialist ingrates. We, AStar and ABX have way more in common than differences. Sorry they roped yall into our nightmare.

 

[xspud]

We, AStar and ABX have way more in common than differences.

Agreed. It's a shame that they've set this up so that employees (not just pilots) must view each other as competitors, instead of viewing FedEx & UPS as competitors.

 

[Bitter]

Agreed. It's a shame that they've set this up so that employees (not just pilots) must view each other as competitors, instead of viewing FedEx & UPS as competitors.

Agreed, while everyone is fighting over the work, the only thing that suffers is service. DHL is already a very distant third player, and getting father behind each day.

The contractor business model is working poorly in the US, and multiple airlines etc is bleeding them dry. There effort to save money by placing express on trucks instead of aircraft is fool hardy, at best it might work, some of the time. That is not good enough. Freight will be lost.

DHL, in my humble opinion, just does not yet grasp the US express market.

As for Abx, it will just keep shrinking. The eights are done, and the nines are going, slowly but surely......One line at a time. No growth, no replacement a/c in the works, and Hete fighting with the germans over the remainder of the 76's.....All adds up to shrinkage. From an 850 pilot airline to a 600 pilot airline.....how long till we are at 500? Two years is my guess.

I would have to guess thst if 60 changes to 65, furloughs will have to follow.

What a sad state of affairs.

Anybody think differently?

 

[rotor&wing]

just something to think about...............................not to mention also that FedEx buying 757's has also driven that market up.......




New life for older airplanes

Shortage of wide-body jets raising values, driving up price for leasing

By Julie Johnsson
Tribune staff reporter
Published December 3, 2006

The Boeing 767, America's 25-year-old workhorse plane, was supposed to be obsolete, headed for a dusty desert parking space, otherwise known as aviation's scrap heap.

But a global shortage of wide-body aircraft, and the recent production and design problems involving two yet to be launched Airbus wide-bodies, has turned the hulking 767 and other old models into hot commodities, even as Chicago-based Boeing Co. mulls shutting down its 767 production line.

Lease rates paid by airlines for some used 767s have more than doubled, to about $550,000 per month, and there isn't a single plane in the 767-300 series available for rent worldwide, according to Back Aviation Solutions, which tracks the global aircraft market.

"If you had this real firm desire to lease a 767 tomorrow, your chances are very slim," said Joe Ozimek, managing director of asset management with Boeing Capital Corp., the aircraft manufacturer's financing arm.

It's not just the 767. Boeing's venerable 747 jumbo jets and Airbus' popular A330 aircraft are also in high demand as airlines aim to boost international routes. And the Boeing 777, the aircraft of choice for many international carriers? Forget about it.

"It's very difficult today to get your hand on airplanes," said Sheik Ahmed bin Saeed Al-Maktoum, chairman and chief executive of Emirates Airline and Emirates Group, the largest customer for Airbus' much-delayed A380 superjumbo jet. "If you want to buy 777s, there's nothing in the market."

The shortage is a byproduct of the boom in international travel and the challenges Airbus faces in launching its A380 and A350, the European planemaker's answer to Boeing's 787 Dreamliner. The first Dreamliners are to be delivered in 2008; Airbus just last week obtained financing needed for building its new A350-XWB models, which won't enter the market until the next decade.

"You've got a perfect storm right now with the delay of the A380 and the attendant delay of the A350," said Glen Langdon, president and CEO of Langdon Asset Management Inc., a San Francisco-based firm that buys and sells aircraft. "It's a significant problem."

Airlines around the world are looking for twin-aisle planes with therange to transport passengers 5,000 miles or more to far-flung cities. Such flights are lucrative since they attract more first-class and business-class travelers willing to pay premiums.

Carriers like Singapore Airlines and Emirates, which planned to add the first A380s to their fleets this year, are scrambling to find other planes after delivery deadlines for the double-decker plane were pushed back three times.

To help offset delays for the 45 A380s it is slated to purchase, Dubai-based Emirates is shopping for 777s.

"I think we managed so far to get something like six aircraft to come in `08," said Sheik Ahmed. "That's not enough capacity."

Singapore Airlines has signed short-term leases for 19 A330 aircraft to "address the capacity shortfall" caused by delays to the 19 A380s it ordered, said spokesman James Boyd.

Etihad Airways, another Persian Gulf-region carrier, also is finding it difficult to find large jets to make up for the four A380s it was to receive in 2008.

"We haven't really solved the issue," said Geert Boven, vice president, commercial, with the Abu Dhabi-based airline.

Some airlines are extending leases on planes they had planned to drop from their fleets in order to get by until the latest Boeing and Airbus craft hit the market, industry experts and airline officials say.

The mad scramble for jets is a reversal of the market following the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

As a result of reduced demand for travel, U.S. carriers parked hundreds of aircraft in the California and Arizona deserts. United Airlines and other carriers also shed hundreds of aircraft through bankruptcy reorganizations.

As recently as January 2003 there were 267 wide-body jets available across the globe for lease or sale, according to Connecticut-based Back Aviation. But by last month, only 99 such planes were on the market. Of those, only two 777s and three A330s of the preferred models were available.

Such shortages are likely to continue for three to five years, until the latest Boeing and Airbus jets roll off production lines in large numbers, said Gueric Dechavanne, director of valuation services for Connecticut-based Back Aviation.

That could pose a problem for recovering U.S. carriers, which largely have sat out of the global aircraft market in recent years.

Elk Grove Township-based United Airlines, for example, has no immediate plans to add planes to its fleet while it focuses on executing its post-bankruptcy business plan, said spokeswoman Jean Medina.

But United likely will encounter the same problems as other carriers if and when it decides to buy more aircraft equipped to fly trans-continental routes.

"They're in an interesting situation where there [are none] out there," said Dechavanne.

Leasing companies, too, are finding it difficult to track down planes to add to their fleets.

Take the 767. Three years ago, Harold Kugelman said he didn't have any problem finding mint-condition 767s sought by customers. He also didn't have to worry much about competitors snapping up jets he wanted.

That's no longer the case.

"Where a couple of people might be bidding on an airplane, now you could find five or six or more," said Kugelman, who as general manager for AAR Aircraft Sales and Leasing scours the globe for used planes for parent AAR Corp.

"The demand for aircraft is at an all-time high," said John Johnson, group vice president in charge of sales and leasing at Wood Dale-based AAR.

Meanwhile, Boeing's production lines for the 787 and 777, the most sought-after planes for long-distance travel, are sold out for the next several years.

But Boeing officials say there is some wiggle room.

"We're sometimes able to work people in," said Boeing spokesman Tim Neal.

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[email protected]


Copyright © 2006, Chicago Tribune

 

[jkkdca]

Just curious guys. I was hired at ABX in Feb. of '99 and left for DAL after. Do you know where the guys are now who were hired at that time? I wish you all the best. Enjoyed everyone I flew with.

 

[penguin22]

Just curious guys. I was hired at ABX in Feb. of '99 and left for DAL after. Do you know where the guys are now who were hired at that time? I wish you all the best. Enjoyed everyone I flew with.

Looks like mostly DC9 FOs. Most junior 767 FO hired in Sep 98.

 

[PurduePilot]

Just curious guys. I was hired at ABX in Feb. of '99 and left for DAL after. Do you know where the guys are now who were hired at that time? I wish you all the best. Enjoyed everyone I flew with.

I was hired in Jan of 99. I am still a DC-9 fo and there are only around 50 guys below me on the seniority list. I live in Cincy so I bid reserve but still could hold a hard line if I wanted to. Life is pretty good though, they haven't been working us too hard yet. Lots of time home with the family.

 

[Whistlin' Dan]

Agreed. It's a shame that they've set this up so that employees (not just pilots) must view each other as competitors, instead of viewing FedEx & UPS as competitors.

That's the crux of their problem, and why DHL, and their "we don't have any employees, but we have lots and lots of subcontractors!" will keep them from EVER becoming a credible threat to the success that FedEx and UPS are enjoying in the overnight express business.