Are you furloughed?
If so, here's my perspective, FWIW, with emphasis on the short term outlook, since that what would affect you directly.
I wouldn’t call it doom and gloom either, but as erichartman says I’m sure its different if you’re still furloughed, or on the bottom. But there’s no way I see any more pilot furloughs coming. We’ll be recall/hiring eventually, not furloughing. The question is when.
Here’s key points to watch for, IMO
How quickly will the remaining DC8s get parked? There’s still 16 active captains and 22 FOs that will eventually get moved to 767 or DC9. Worst case, of course, would be if they all get parked real soon. But I’ve even heard rumors that DHL is considering putting a couple DC8s thru C check (that decision supposedly sometime next month), which means of course they’ll hang around for quite some time.
Where do the additional 767s get put into service? (5-6 more, I think) If its in the DHL network, they can be crewed with maybe half the staffing required for putting them on some of these charters. We’re short 767 crews now. If they go to charters we’ll be REALLY short of 767 crews. If this Japan operation thats rumored happens we’ll be REALLY REALLY short of 767 crews. Meanwhile, 767 training continues.
I’ve read lots of concern about getting rid of the DC9s, but that’s not gonna happen anytime soon. DHL will have to have a replacement first, and there’s no sign of one coming right now, whether its ABX or anybody else. Put that in the long term concern column. Short term, they’re safe.
Put it all together, and here’s the worst/best case scenarios…
Worst case: Remaining DC8s get parked right after Christmas rush. Additional 767s go to DHL.
Those 36 DC8 pilots will have to go to 767/DC9. Recall and hiring gets pushed off until that’s done. Call me crazy, but I still don’t see pilot furloughing with that (unlikely) scenario.
Best case: DC8s just keep hanging around, maybe DHL pays to C-check one or two. (the most likely DC8 scenario IMO) This Japan 767 operation gets fast-tracked. In that case, I’m gonna bet we see recall/hiring in the first quarter 2007, certainly in the first half of next year.
BTW, anybody else notice mgmt seemed to have changed their tune? We’re no longer hearing ‘we’re adequately staffed’. Now they’re admitting they were ‘caught short’ of pilots. FWIW