ABX update

[xspud]

I guess that depends on your perspective (seniority). From my POV it's more wait and see vs doom and gloom.

I concur with that. I'm not impressed with DHL so far, so not everything I've written is positive. But I hope that I'm far from "doom & gloom" and I don't sense that attitude at ABX. Even for those of us who haven't had the opportunities and QOL that we hoped for, it's still a great job. The only guys who've had a truly bad deal are the ones on furlough.

There will have to be some movement after the first of the year due to 767's coming on line. That will actually generate some news. For now, only conjecture.

 

[goastar]

>The outcome of those negotiations (costs, work stoppage/disruption, etc) will IMHO have a major impact. <

This may have an impact in the short term, which I really have no doubt that ABX will be the surviver. You have the ground and air tied up. What concerns me is the long term. A few changes in ownership rules and it won't be long that ABX will be competing with the likes of a DHL Aero Express. That may be said for most airlines, but even more so for ACMI carriers. The next 5 or so years could be interesting. The boys at aero express are already talking about going to 75 school down in Mijami.

I hardly think DHL is a wait and see for anything. I believe its a time to gear up the resume and find something else while you have an income kind of job. I used to laugh of your talk of the Airborne golden days, but you boys were right DHL came in and hosed up a good thing. Good luck, as for me the resumes are flowin.

 

[penguin22]

Any positive news at Abx? Or is it still doom and gloom?

Are you furloughed?
If so, here's my perspective, FWIW, with emphasis on the short term outlook, since that what would affect you directly.

I wouldn’t call it doom and gloom either, but as erichartman says I’m sure its different if you’re still furloughed, or on the bottom. But there’s no way I see any more pilot furloughs coming. We’ll be recall/hiring eventually, not furloughing. The question is when.

Here’s key points to watch for, IMO
How quickly will the remaining DC8s get parked? There’s still 16 active captains and 22 FOs that will eventually get moved to 767 or DC9. Worst case, of course, would be if they all get parked real soon. But I’ve even heard rumors that DHL is considering putting a couple DC8s thru C check (that decision supposedly sometime next month), which means of course they’ll hang around for quite some time.

Where do the additional 767s get put into service? (5-6 more, I think) If its in the DHL network, they can be crewed with maybe half the staffing required for putting them on some of these charters. We’re short 767 crews now. If they go to charters we’ll be REALLY short of 767 crews. If this Japan operation thats rumored happens we’ll be REALLY REALLY short of 767 crews. Meanwhile, 767 training continues.

I’ve read lots of concern about getting rid of the DC9s, but that’s not gonna happen anytime soon. DHL will have to have a replacement first, and there’s no sign of one coming right now, whether its ABX or anybody else. Put that in the long term concern column. Short term, they’re safe.

Put it all together, and here’s the worst/best case scenarios…
Worst case: Remaining DC8s get parked right after Christmas rush. Additional 767s go to DHL.
Those 36 DC8 pilots will have to go to 767/DC9. Recall and hiring gets pushed off until that’s done. Call me crazy, but I still don’t see pilot furloughing with that (unlikely) scenario.

Best case: DC8s just keep hanging around, maybe DHL pays to C-check one or two. (the most likely DC8 scenario IMO) This Japan 767 operation gets fast-tracked. In that case, I’m gonna bet we see recall/hiring in the first quarter 2007, certainly in the first half of next year.

BTW, anybody else notice mgmt seemed to have changed their tune? We’re no longer hearing ‘we’re adequately staffed’. Now they’re admitting they were ‘caught short’ of pilots. FWIW

 

[abxaviator]

4 DC-8 Captains and 4 DC-9 FO's to start 767 class next month.

 

[penguin22]

4 DC-8 Captains and 4 DC-9 FO's to start 767 class next month.

Yes and my numbers above ("There’s still 16 active captains and 22 FOs that will eventually get moved to 767 or DC9") didn't include that bid.

Thanks for clarifying

 

[xspud]

A few changes in ownership rules and it won't be long that ABX will be competing with the likes of a DHL Aero Express.

Anything is possible, of course, but I'm not sure I agree that would be the outcome. My impression is that DHL's modus operandi has been to buy the carrier that's in place instead of growing another carrier. Growing DHL Aero Express from a (I think) 4 airplane operation to something the size of Astar or ABX is not the way DHL has done business in the past. Being owned by DHL doesn't seem to have provided many growth opportunities for the carriers they've bought so far.

There's not much sympathy for foreign ownership in the U.S. right now, either. Europe may force something to happen by holding out open skies, but there's a lot of sentiment against it for the time being. I see status quo in ownership rules for a while.

 

[GoABX]

Rumor 1: Proffer for 6 DC-9 captains in Jan

Rumor 2: Recall and perhaps draining pool in Jan

My vote is for another 6 month mega proffer to give us and the company some visibility. Only downside is mgt. may be trying to increase morale as they enter talks on pay and retirement in hopes of getting off cheaper.

 

[penguin22]

Only downside is mgt. may be trying to increase morale as they enter talks on pay and retirement in hopes of getting off cheaper.

they must be dreaming :laugh:





like my new sig?

 

[penguin22]

like my new sig?

hmmm. 'No concessionary contracts' kinda sounds like a contract without a payraise would suffice.

Of course we need a payraise!!

I'll have to tweak that signature somehow.

 

[GoABX]

With upgrade expectations going from 5 to 15 years, we need to realign FO rates back to the percentages.

We need a B-Fund, even a small one to start, just so we can work on it in future contracts. Does it matter whether you get a 5%/yr pay raise or a B fund that increases 5%/yr? Can you imagine having a 25% B fund after 5 years?!!!!

UPS/FDX minus 15% will work for me and still give DHL a cost advantage.

 

[abxaviator]

With upgrade expectations going from 5 to 15 years, we need to realign FO rates back to the percentages.

We need a B-Fund, even a small one to start, just so we can work on it in future contracts. Does it matter whether you get a 5%/yr pay raise or a B fund that increases 5%/yr? Can you imagine having a 25% B fund after 5 years?!!!!

UPS/FDX minus 15% will work for me and still give DHL a cost advantage.

For seat and time my HOURLY is ABOVE both F&U. I'd like to keep it that way.

 

[GoABX]

You don't pay your mortgage with an hourly rate. Monthly or W-2 is what counts and we lag both by a wide margin. If you like the rate then bump the guarantee, we don't fly anything close to it (for the most part). Our retirement isn't so grand compared to them either.

 

[Jurassic Jet]

You don't pay your mortgage with an hourly rate. Monthly or W-2 is what counts and we lag both by a wide margin. If you like the rate then bump the guarantee, we don't fly anything close to it (for the most part). Our retirement isn't so grand compared to them either.

I tried to explain that to him a few posts ago. Don't think I got through.:smash:

 

[Clipperskip]

Results of the Proffer 07-01

Yes and my numbers above ("There’s still 16 active captains and 22 FOs that will eventually get moved to 767 or DC9") didn't include that bid.

Thanks for clarifying

Not to be picky but it appears to be only 3 DC-8 Captains awarded the 767 in the last proffer. The other captain was from the DC-9. Still three captains off the DC-8 in one month is approximately 1/5 the total number!

 

[LarryinTN]

Still three captains off the DC-8 in one month is approximately 1/5 the total number!

They'd just hate it if they had to have a DC8 Capt class!

 

[Bitter]

Are you furloughed?
If so, here's my perspective, FWIW, with emphasis on the short term outlook, since that what would affect you directly.

I wouldn’t call it doom and gloom either, but as erichartman says I’m sure its different if you’re still furloughed, or on the bottom. But there’s no way I see any more pilot furloughs coming. We’ll be recall/hiring eventually, not furloughing. The question is when.

Here’s key points to watch for, IMO
How quickly will the remaining DC8s get parked? There’s still 16 active captains and 22 FOs that will eventually get moved to 767 or DC9. Worst case, of course, would be if they all get parked real soon. But I’ve even heard rumors that DHL is considering putting a couple DC8s thru C check (that decision supposedly sometime next month), which means of course they’ll hang around for quite some time.

Where do the additional 767s get put into service? (5-6 more, I think) If its in the DHL network, they can be crewed with maybe half the staffing required for putting them on some of these charters. We’re short 767 crews now. If they go to charters we’ll be REALLY short of 767 crews. If this Japan operation thats rumored happens we’ll be REALLY REALLY short of 767 crews. Meanwhile, 767 training continues.

I’ve read lots of concern about getting rid of the DC9s, but that’s not gonna happen anytime soon. DHL will have to have a replacement first, and there’s no sign of one coming right now, whether its ABX or anybody else. Put that in the long term concern column. Short term, they’re safe.

Put it all together, and here’s the worst/best case scenarios…
Worst case: Remaining DC8s get parked right after Christmas rush. Additional 767s go to DHL.
Those 36 DC8 pilots will have to go to 767/DC9. Recall and hiring gets pushed off until that’s done. Call me crazy, but I still don’t see pilot furloughing with that (unlikely) scenario.

Best case: DC8s just keep hanging around, maybe DHL pays to C-check one or two. (the most likely DC8 scenario IMO) This Japan 767 operation gets fast-tracked. In that case, I’m gonna bet we see recall/hiring in the first quarter 2007, certainly in the first half of next year.

BTW, anybody else notice mgmt seemed to have changed their tune? We’re no longer hearing ‘we’re adequately staffed’. Now they’re admitting they were ‘caught short’ of pilots. FWIW

Yep guilty as charged......Your prospective is much different from the junior guys that I still talk to, and the chief pilots office (fwiw).

They are talking of furloughs in the first quarter of the year.

All the 8's going soon, 30+ people there to find a home, 20+ too many in the right seat of the 9, and those guys are not flying much. More 9 cities to be lost in 07, causing 9's to be parked......New 767's going to DHL, thus slim staffing, and loss of more 9 cities with the knock on effect from Astar. 767 replaces a 72, which replaces a 9.

Asia contract is a fishing trip to see how low they can drive pay etc.......

Couple all of that, with the retirement age fixing to change......

I cannot see returning before the furlough expires in May of 08!!

 

[xspud]

ANA/JP Express Crew Contract

Asia contract is a fishing trip to see how low they can drive pay etc.......

I'll take a nibble and try to avoid that hook...

Looking at Hawaii Air Crew Services summary of the ANA/JP Express contract:

Average Compensation, 5 year contract (includes commuting allowances & completion bonus):

FO: $119,232/yr + $6,600/yr self-directed pension
CPT: $163,939/yr + $10,449/yr self-directed pension

These are salary figures, I assume regardless of actual hours.
70 block hours/month.
Perdiem works out to $44/day on "20 operations days/month".

I don't know if the first (plus/minus) $85K is tax-free or not. I'm not sure if the IRS would consider you based in Honolulu or Narita.

Bottom line is, Captain base pay is about 12% below ours, FO pay about 2% below ours, based on 12 year pay.

FWIW, that's the competition (at least one of them, PARC is also interviewing crews for ANA/JP).
I'm all for more jobs for ABX pilots and more opportunities for myself. Whether we can (or want to be) competitive in the contract crew world is a good question. Is it realistic and, if so, do we want to go down that road?

 

[Bitter]

I'll take a nibble and try to avoid that hook...

Looking at Hawaii Air Crew Services summary of the ANA/JP Express contract:

Average Compensation, 5 year contract (includes commuting allowances & completion bonus):

FO: $119,232/yr + $6,600/yr self-directed pension
CPT: $163,939/yr + $10,449/yr self-directed pension

These are salary figures, I assume regardless of actual hours.
70 block hours/month.
Perdiem works out to $44/day on "20 operations days/month".

I don't know if the first (plus/minus) $85K is tax-free or not. I'm not sure if the IRS would consider you based in Honolulu or Narita.

Bottom line is, Captain base pay is about 12% below ours, FO pay about 2% below ours, based on 12 year pay.

FWIW, that's the competition (at least one of them, PARC is also interviewing crews for ANA/JP).
I'm all for more jobs for ABX pilots and more opportunities for myself. Whether we can (or want to be) competitive in the contract crew world is a good question. Is it realistic and, if so, do we want to go down that road?

If it meant getting recalled or preventing more furloughs or god forbid a new hire, I think we should do it. I would gladly come back to that!!

The numbers that you quoted do not lower the bar.......

 

[Bitter]

What up with the RIV hub....Is it closing?

 

[LarryinTN]

Yeah, they had so much fun closing the almost-new CVG hub that they decided to build another brand new hub in RIV so that they could close it a year later.

 

[Bitter]

When is it scheduled to close? How many 9's are going to be parked? How many proposed furloughs?

Ugly!

 

[Jurassic Jet]

I think it's only scheduled to be closed for 3 weeks due to light volume after Christmas.

 

[abxaviator]

Three of the 9's will operate out of LAX until RIV reopens on 1/16.

 

[LarryinTN]

When is it scheduled to close?

I guess my sarcasm didn't come through very well...

 

[abxaviator]

I understood ya LJ.

 

[LarryinTN]

This is one of the few smart things that I've seen DHL do. They are consolidating a number of flights to save money during the period where freight volumes drop right after Christmas.

 

[penguin22]

Somebody said they're doing some resurfacing or something during those couple weeks at RIV, forcing the temp move to LAX. Maybe somebody will fill in the details.

 

[LarryinTN]

That would explain the move from RIV to LAX.

 

[erichartmann]

Apparently ABX has sold (as in hasta la bye-bye, we don't own them or crew them) two of it's cargo door '8's to a party in Peru. They left yesterday (12/21/06).