Having said that I will submit that even you, given your massive technical poweress and tendancy towards being correct most of the time could at some point-based on the information that you had at the time either have in the past (and escaped unscathed) or could at some point in the future make a choice that results in an investigation where after twelve months of gestation many experts from several fields could find you culpable-even though it looked good based on the information you had at your disposal.
Which is, of course, the antithesis of an informed decision, and clearly makes the argument against guesswork.
Regardless of the eventual discovery of additional data, a decision made based on facts is not at all guesswork, and at a minimum a good faith effort at a fully informed decision.
What we have here, instead, is wild speculation that ranges from "the first officer did it" to UFO's, terrorists, referrals to Lockerbie, and some idiotic guesswork involving bad maintenance, airplanes splitting apart on their own, captain and first officer actions (with no information one way or the other, mind you), and my favorite so far, detective work based on irrelevant comparisons with pictures found on airliners.net.
Without regard to the former, one can make no parallels, inferred or otherwise, to making a safety related decision in flight based on the facts to which one is privy at the time, and what's going on here...making 100% guesses with NO facts upon which to make a remotely informed observation or interpretation thereof.
Further, what may be estimable after the fact by those considering the decision and the evidences upon which it was based, is entirely irrelevant to this discussion and to the popularly received concept of speculation and guesswork. Certainly more so to rational, mature, professional discussion of any productive nature, or of any positive worth.
Simply put, guesswork, particularly within the framework of this discussion and this mishap, is asinine.
