HAL hiring

[Dan Roman]

BTW anyone who thinks buying HA would be easy is mistaken from a purely integration/operational perspective. Hawaii is an island, if anyone thinks they could acquire the employees without giving them seniority in all Hawaii ops over everyone else they would be in for a rude awakening. An outside entity trying to muscle it's way into Hawaii would have their arse handed to them on a platter. Not just pilots but everyone. If SWA tried to do what they did to AirTran here they would create a permanent hostile work environment that would hurt them in ways to numerous to list here.

 

[Dan Roman]

Also Red, yes SWA has some money in the bank and is in good shape (not as good as Pan Am once was! ) But they don't have the money to " buy" an international route system that could compete with DAL,UAL or AA. Not going to happen. Buying HA thinking that it would elevate them into the International arena would be pathetic. HA is good at bringing people to Hawaii as Hawaiian Air, but it hardly would give SWA an "International" presence. More like making SWA a tiny and very vulnerable player is all it would do.

 

[Dan Roman]

Red let me put it in simple terms. If SWA tried to acquire HA it would cost them at least 1.5 to 2 billion. Then because of integration problems they would lose 100's of millions more. Then because SWA and HA are relatively incompatible and an AirBus hub in HNL doesn't fit so well they lose millions more. Next thing you know they have gone through that 3 billion. Still think that's a good idea ?

 

[waveflyer]

Four separate posts, my friend.

It seems we all have discovered what you fear.

There is nothing to "fear" except....

 

[redflyer65]

Dan,

I'm headed out the door shortly, so I didn't dig into each post but let me just say this..

My post WAS just speculation on my part. I tried to convey that. It was in no way meant to stir the pot with you or any HA guy. Just industry speculation and what I think may be coming down the road.

 

[orangebellyav8r]

Dan

SWA and HA folks will have no voice in it if it happens. It is pure wall street and GK boys. Just like AirTran.

 

[HAL]

red/wave/orange, let me put this into a strictly business sense - not related to any 'wish' we have to stay separate. The question is - why would anyone buy Hawaiian? The answer is that it would either a) provide an increase in revenue to make the business grow, or b) provide feed to the current system of the purchasing airline, or c) reduce competition, to allow higher fares for the purchaser.

For a), the problem is that unless the purchaser left HA completely alone as a separate airline, there would be no increase in profits. The ONLY reason HA is profitable is its current business model. HA charges more per seat on average than the competition, and the only reason they are able to do that is the very specific service model they provide. People are willing to pay more to get better service - our current business model proves that. Do you see SWA suddenly agreeing to charge more and provide free meals on its flights? Do you see SWA staffing flights with more than the minimum required number of FAs? Do you see SWA providing passengers with all the amenities that HA does on its longhaul flights? No. If SWA (or any other current U.S. airline) were to buy HA they would change their service & business model to fit into their own, and suddenly all that extra fares HA charges would have to go away, and so would its profits. Like Dan has said so many times before, the business model of HA wouldn't fit into any other airline. Take that business model away, and suddenly HA becomes a money pit that no other airline would touch.

For reason b), that same business model of bringing people to Hawaii wouldn't fit in connecting passengers to feed the purchasing airline, because the flights arrive on the west coast too late to do anything with them, other than put them up in a hotel. Change the departure times, you say? Fine. Then you've killed the business model, because (as we've discovered) most passengers don't want to get up at 5am in Hawaii to catch an 8am departure. We've tried, and with a couple of exceptions, it didn't work.

And for reason c), none of the potential suitors for HA would consider our flights to be competition. SWA certainly isn't flying any of our routes, and if AS or UA or AA or DL wanted to buy us, it would be cheaper to simply put more of their own planes on the routes that go through the expense of trying to buy us. It simply wouldn't be worth the cost of buying us when it would be cheaper to simply add more of their own flights.

So from a business sense, a merger - especially with SWA - just doesn't make sense. If you have other business related reasons why it would, I'd love to hear them.

HAL

 

[Dan Roman]

Four separate posts, my friend.

It seems we all have discovered what you fear.

There is nothing to "fear" except....

LOL, no I think you are making SWA more imortant then it is in this discussion. It really isn't a fear for me. In fact if any merger actually did happen with anyone, I would be retired by the time the dust settles. I enjoy these posts because they are A) about Hawaiian and B) I've got reality on my side. Call me General Dan, but I'm WINNING!!!!:beer:
HAL said it better than I, but read his post. It's not speculation, it's simply some relevant, irrefutable facts. SWA more than anyone simply doesn't fit into HA's business plan. Again, not my opinion, just a simple observation.

 

[Dan Roman]

Dan

SWA and HA folks will have no voice in it if it happens. It is pure wall street and GK boys. Just like AirTran.

True statement that. SWA has enough money to get itself in trouble with bad merger decisions. Think USAir, Piedmont, PSA.... USAir and Piedmont were in as good as financial shape as SWA is now, once they merged it started a down spiral. I think your "Gary" is smarter than that.

 

[Dan Roman]

Your turboprop is wholly owned is it not?
You don't think that'll put downward pressure on things?

This has all been done Dan- why go down the same road spitting out the same arguments that led to all the outsourcing in the mainland?

I missed this one Wave. Small turboprop feed is a good thing for everyone. It doesn't cost jobs at all, it creates them. It feeds mainline from markets that would have not had air service in many cases. This requires more mainline seats, I.E more jobs. When DAL allowed RJ's they muddied the line on that one and now the cat's out of the bag with regional's costing jobs at mainline.
Hawaiian has not and definitely won't cross that line. We do know how to protect Inter-Island flying and it's enough of our heritage that protecting Inter-Island will always be of prime importance.

 

[orangebellyav8r]

I think your "Gary" is smarter than that

Really...Then why did he go after AirTran



And for A B and C

SWA is not the same as years back. And I bet in 5 years SWA is not going to be the same as today. Like I said before "We have no say in it, if it would ever happen"

 

[FlyinGuy]

Guys, this has nothing to do with pilots. It has to do with management. If it did happen, you can bet and expect both unions to fight hard for their groups. Be it DAL, UAL, or SWA.

Look what SWA did to ATL. They bought AT, said they would grow the bitch, then gave it to DAL. If SWA bought HA, it would be for the international arm. So, don't expect them to buy it for a Hawaii launching point. Just an observation...don't shoot the messenger!

 

[redflyer65]

red/wave/orange, let me put this into a strictly business sense - not related to any 'wish' we have to stay separate. The question is - why would anyone buy Hawaiian? The answer is that it would either a) provide an increase in revenue to make the business grow, or b) provide feed to the current system of the purchasing airline, or c) reduce competition, to allow higher fares for the purchaser.

For a), the problem is that unless the purchaser left HA completely alone as a separate airline, there would be no increase in profits. The ONLY reason HA is profitable is its current business model. HA charges more per seat on average than the competition, and the only reason they are able to do that is the very specific service model they provide. People are willing to pay more to get better service - our current business model proves that. Do you see SWA suddenly agreeing to charge more and provide free meals on its flights? Do you see SWA staffing flights with more than the minimum required number of FAs? Do you see SWA providing passengers with all the amenities that HA does on its longhaul flights? No. If SWA (or any other current U.S. airline) were to buy HA they would change their service & business model to fit into their own, and suddenly all that extra fares HA charges would have to go away, and so would its profits. Like Dan has said so many times before, the business model of HA wouldn't fit into any other airline. Take that business model away, and suddenly HA becomes a money pit that no other airline would touch.

For reason b), that same business model of bringing people to Hawaii wouldn't fit in connecting passengers to feed the purchasing airline, because the flights arrive on the west coast too late to do anything with them, other than put them up in a hotel. Change the departure times, you say? Fine. Then you've killed the business model, because (as we've discovered) most passengers don't want to get up at 5am in Hawaii to catch an 8am departure. We've tried, and with a couple of exceptions, it didn't work.

And for reason c), none of the potential suitors for HA would consider our flights to be competition. SWA certainly isn't flying any of our routes, and if AS or UA or AA or DL wanted to buy us, it would be cheaper to simply put more of their own planes on the routes that go through the expense of trying to buy us. It simply wouldn't be worth the cost of buying us when it would be cheaper to simply add more of their own flights.

So from a business sense, a merger - especially with SWA - just doesn't make sense. If you have other business related reasons why it would, I'd love to hear them.

HAL

I'll play devil's advocate HAL.

a) Hawaiian could be integrated with SW pretty easily. Would it take time? Sure. Look at the acquisition of AirTran. And most likely the HA model of service would change. Staffing more FA's? You really think that would be a problem? Meals? You think that would be a deal breaker for a CEO? The goal for SW would be widebodies with ETOPS immediately. Asia...immediately. A platform for more widebodies with new destinations. It's a jumpstart HAL. Could SW do it alone? Sure. But why not get a turn key Ops for 700 million?

b) Yes, they would adjust the schedule. You think they couldn't change the Hawaiian business model (departure times) and not make money? SW is the PhD of changing schedules to make money. If it doesn't make money, they adapt and change it so it brings in money. I can guarantee you that. Coming Eastbound, how easy would it be for the widebody to land in LA, OAK, or LAS and a 737 to take them to OMA or MCI? Hint..we already have that setup. We (SW) provide the best system of feed in the industry. We operate 3,500 flights a day. Think more widebodies that are full....from 737 feed.

c) Here, I completely agree and you make my point for me. SW wouldn't be buying out a competitor (like AAI), but expanding into long haul, overwater operations. So it's less likely that DAL or AAL would interested. I agree. SW might be.

HAL, I respect your response and appreciate the time you took to post it. But you didn't make any points that wouldn't stop a CEO from making the purchase for the low price that it would take. They don't think like pilots, they look at opportunities for the value presented and then pull the trigger. I highly doubt it would be a disaster for SW if done.

Again, pure speculation on my part and it may never happen. But you have to keep your eyes wide open.

 

[Microclimates]

my .02 is that HAL's biggest potential acquirer might just be the new and improved AA, just as soon as they square away things at home... They are already doing pretty well financially, but have very little exposure to Asia, (and US Air, I think, none). SOoo, in terms of acquiring a new market quickly, with the same aircraft (USair was launch in the U.S for the airbi, no?) for about the profits turned in one good quarter...

Talk about a different service model though!!! And, in terms of work group assimilation... Hawaiian auntie vs East FA would be a pretty good match to witness.. then again HI has a solid MMA tradition!

 

[xjhawk]

So if SWA acquired them would they sell off all the non-B737 planes to Delta……. I am thinking that we have seen the last of the merger/acquisitions on a large scale. All except maybe Indigo buying back into Spirit and merging with Frontier. Alaska and HAL have huge hurdles before any successful merger could be completed. Political and financial. Just my .02, but I do not claim to be an expert.

 

[General Lee]

So if SWA acquired them would they sell off all the non-B737 planes to Delta??. I am thinking that we have seen the last of the merger/acquisitions on a large scale. All except maybe Indigo buying back into Spirit and merging with Frontier. Alaska and HAL have huge hurdles before any successful merger could be completed. Political and financial. Just my .02, but I do not claim to be an expert.

I doubt SWA would purchase them, they would be acquiring 4 different fleets (717, A330, A321s, and outgoing 767s) and they didn't even have a good merger with AT. And the Swapa pilots would again try to avoid arbitration, and try to make every HA pilot start at the "new Southwest" in the right seat (like AT....???) because they need to train them how to LUV each other and the awesome company that just bought them. Doubtful. Especially because they have already proven they knew nothing about INTL flying, and AT is still doing the majority of it today for them, with bag fees no less.....


But, I could see a legacy trying. AA has some extra cash and as a previous poster stated they lack a huge Asia presence. I doubt DL will try because they already compete on some of the same routes out of HNL to several cities in Japan and to the US West Coast and even HNL to JFK this upcoming Xmas/Holiday season. So, my bet too is on AA eventually, which lacks a major Asia presence.



Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[FlyinGuy]

Fleets are not the issue. Yes, 717's would go to Dal, 767's retire, and there would be multiple options for the busses. So, not as difficult as one would think. The biggest issue would be the ops integration, but that would work itself in time. As far as the SLI, I am positive it would go to arby. Just one line swine's opinion which is not worth the bandwidth this post gobbled up.

 

[waveflyer]

I actually think American has the highest chance of purchasing HAL-
They have almost $10B laying around in cash

And Hawaiian pilots have spoken-
They'd rather integrate with APA than SWAPA, and that fact alone will keep GK out of it I'm sure
:-/

 

[Jim]

I actually think American has the highest chance of purchasing HAL-
They have almost $10B laying around in cash

And Hawaiian pilots have spoken-
They'd rather integrate with APA than SWAPA, and that fact alone will keep GK out of it I'm sure
:-/

True, but I think it would be:
Stay HA
FedEx - since we're talking about unrealistic mergers....
Delta
UA
AA - after they settle the seniority list with US Airways
SWA or Alaska - both would have unrealistic expectations of where HA pilots would go on a SLI.

 

[$$$4nothin]

Not to throw a wrench in the plans here guys but how about HAL/JB. No overlap. Would make a great merger and ability to go almost anywhere in the world outside Europe on one airline. HAL also already uses JB terminal for its JFK ops.