Don't hold your breath for a pilot shortage

[Dumb Pilot]

I think you are starting to see the "shortage" play itself out in Asia. I just got an email today advertising E-170/190 captains in China. The total 3 year compensation on this contract is north of a half million dollars after taxes (Chinese taxes are paid by the airline and the United States and China have a tax treaty which prevents double taxation).

Many companies out here have had to increase their T&C'S to be able to attract suitable candidates, you are seeing more DEC positions being offered without time on type, cross training from Boeing to the Airbi without previous experience is also happening quite regularly, even in jobs that have 500 hours on type as part of their requirements are hiring guys without the time on type. Interesting times in Asia for sure

 

[pilotyip]

Oh to be 40 again in this upcoming job market.

 

[RJLoser]

Oh to be 40 again in this upcoming job market.

You'd give up older and wiser for it? Really?

 

[20sx]

Oh to be 40 again in this upcoming job market.

I'm 40, and I don't feel confidant yet about the shortage. With the thought of massive furloughs from Eagle and perhaps Pinnacle, even the regional market could be tough to get into over the next couple of years. I've been out of flying for almost 3 years with just a little to keep current. Have applied to regionals and haven't heard back...and I have over 4000TT with a little turbine PIC at the last 121 gig. Come on YIP, help me feel better about the future!

 

[Scapegoat]

Again, I just dont see a big pilot shortage on any level. Heres why:

1) I think that Legacy's will replace pilots on a 1:2 ratio at best. If you can get to one of those airlines you better like the right seat cuz all the guys that are currently there in their early 40's will be 68 before they retire and give their seat up to you. And dont get excited with any narrow body orders from em either. CO already takes these 737 ETOPS over to Ireland, look for Legacy's to stretch their use like regionals have done with RJ's.

2) Rest rules will hold up, I agree, but the ATP requirement will not. With that, they will be able to ramp up people for these jobs rather easily I think. How about all the people out of flying that have the itch to get back in. Easing requierments to transition from JAA to FAA. Extending the retirement age. All of these will factor in with the fact that there is no real domestic growth foreseeable (sp). DEN-TUL will never be on an airbus because the traveler (business and leisure), like high frequency which means 50-100 seat airplanes in this day and age. If any of these airlines could support 1 flight a day on a 757 from DEN-TUL, they would be doing it.

3) (last point), Look at Air Canada a few months ago when they tried to create a new airline within an airline. Same job but lower pay and less bene's. You think this effort is going to go away? Hell no. This will eventually succede in the US as well. Why? Because airlines have to make a profit for the sharholders. How can they do that? Cant hedge fuel anymore. Cant raise ticket prices unless someone else does. How do you save money?? Labor costs!! - (Salary, medical, retirement, etc.) They will all get less and less for the same work. Some US company will end up contracting out some real flying here in the next 7 years. No regioal stuff either. And who is gonna do these jobs? People unhappy with their current job will leave for an opportunity for the next big thing. People on the street who have left flying. Flight schools can get commercial students out within 8 months when they want to. (Think: "If you build it, they will come.") Look at all the people that VA is getting now. Ex Midwest Airlines, Comair people out of work and Skywest guys. Finding people will not be a problem. They are out there in towns big and small all across this country waiting......
Cuz no one is gonna go to the middle east or china to do this job if you have friends/ family here. Its just not worth it. (Im generalising of course.)

 

[NEDude]

Again, I just dont see a big pilot shortage on any level. Heres why:

1) I think that Legacy's will replace pilots on a 1:2 ratio at best. If you can get to one of those airlines you better like the right seat cuz all the guys that are currently there in their early 40's will be 68 before they retire and give their seat up to you. And dont get excited with any narrow body orders from em either. CO already takes these 737 ETOPS over to Ireland, look for Legacy's to stretch their use like regionals have done with RJ's.

2) Rest rules will hold up, I agree, but the ATP requirement will not. With that, they will be able to ramp up people for these jobs rather easily I think. How about all the people out of flying that have the itch to get back in. Easing requierments to transition from JAA to FAA. Extending the retirement age. All of these will factor in with the fact that there is no real domestic growth foreseeable (sp). DEN-TUL will never be on an airbus because the traveler (business and leisure), like high frequency which means 50-100 seat airplanes in this day and age. If any of these airlines could support 1 flight a day on a 757 from DEN-TUL, they would be doing it.

3) (last point), Look at Air Canada a few months ago when they tried to create a new airline within an airline. Same job but lower pay and less bene's. You think this effort is going to go away? Hell no. This will eventually succede in the US as well. Why? Because airlines have to make a profit for the sharholders. How can they do that? Cant hedge fuel anymore. Cant raise ticket prices unless someone else does. How do you save money?? Labor costs!! - (Salary, medical, retirement, etc.) They will all get less and less for the same work. Some US company will end up contracting out some real flying here in the next 7 years. No regioal stuff either. And who is gonna do these jobs? People unhappy with their current job will leave for an opportunity for the next big thing. People on the street who have left flying. Flight schools can get commercial students out within 8 months when they want to. (Think: "If you build it, they will come.") Look at all the people that VA is getting now. Ex Midwest Airlines, Comair people out of work and Skywest guys. Finding people will not be a problem. They are out there in towns big and small all across this country waiting......
Cuz no one is gonna go to the middle east or china to do this job if you have friends/ family here. Its just not worth it. (Im generalising of course.)

The problem with this is it assumes the number of students training remains constant. Student pilot starts are way down - like 15% of what they were ten years ago. The cost of training has sky rocketed and the quick and easy flight training loans are no longer out there. Some college flight programs that used to have waiting lists as little as 8 to 10 years ago now are only filling half their slots, and others are disappearing completely (Daniel Webster College).

The issue is not going to happen overnight, but the seeds are planted and the trend is visible - flight training numbers WAY down, flight schools closing doors due to lack of students, regional airlines now claiming "more than three failures" is when they start to have issues, other regionals struggling to fill classes, and overseas jobs increasing pay by over 50% (and offering U.S. bases in some cases) in as little as three years in attempts to draw pilots over there.

 

[HalinTexas]

When US carriers up the pay to attract pilots then I'll believe there's a shortage. Otherwise, there's only a shortage of pilots willing to work for what you're paying. It's not going to cripple the economy.

Look at China. They keep upping the contracts to attract people.

 

[pilotyip]

You'd give up older and wiser for it? Really?

Back then 3000 hour military pilots were a dime a dozen, being over 30 and getting a major interview was almost unheard of. Today I would almost have head of the line privileges.

I'm 40, and I don't feel confidant yet about the shortage. With the thought of massive furloughs from Eagle and perhaps Pinnacle, even the regional market could be tough to get into over the next couple of years. I've been out of flying for almost 3 years with just a little to keep current. Have applied to regionals and haven't heard back...and I have over 4000TT with a little turbine PIC at the last 121 gig. Come on YIP, help me feel better about the future!

Hang in there with a recovering economy, age 65 retirements coming up, and a shortage of talent developing, the 20121 hiring boom will be great for guys like you, start shopping.

 

[Secret Squirrel]

Back then 3000 hour military pilots were a dime a dozen, being over 30 and getting a major interview was almost unheard of. Today I would almost have head of the line privileges.

Hang in there with a recovering economy, age 65 retirements coming up, and a shortage of talent developing, the 20121 hiring boom will be great for guys like you, start shopping.

20121, or almost 20,000 years from now? They will have a star trek type transporter or we will have bombed ourselves into the stone age. Either way no need for pilots.

 

[pilotyip]

20121, or almost 20,000 years from now? They will have a star trek type transporter or we will have bombed ourselves into the stone age. Either way no need for pilots.

but you can bet sometime between now and 20121 there will be a pilot shortage, Luke Skywalker benefited from one