Don't hold your breath for a pilot shortage

[NEDude]

More evidence of the tide turning - even in Europe, which has historically been a tighter market than even the U.S.A. is now starting to have a few opportunities crop up. EasyJet is having a hard time crewing its Lisbon, Portugal base and if the rumor mill is to be believed they may start looking for DECs. Parc Aviation currently has summer A320 FO positions open for Aer Lingus out of Dublin - JAA required but no citizenship requirements posted. Going to be interesting pretty soon.

 

[SplitBar]

Sorry gotta call bullcrap on this one.

Senior RJ Captains are making close to 100K at base guarantee. A little over time and premium pay here and there and you can do 120K EASILY. Been there done it.

 

[Andy]

UAVs have a terrible safety record. There is a LONG way to go before we get to that point. Look at how Iran captured that UAV. If we turn airliners over to a similar system, imagine the field day terrorists could have. My guess is the security required for remote controlled airliners will be more expensive than pilots.

Shack. The annual cost of having two pilots in a $100M+ aircraft is cheaper than the increased insurance cost of having that same aircraft as a UAV. Seriously, the cost of two pilots' salaries are peanuts in the scheme of things.
Suppose FedEx went with a bunch of UAVs. I could envision a scenario where a number of players buy puts/sell calls/and short the stock of FedEx and then jam the entire electromagnetic spectrum of Memphis during the period where FedEx's aircraft land for the sort. Don't kid yourselves; this isn't a monumental task.
The cost/benefit is so far out of balance that I don't see pilots being replaced for the next 100 years, if ever. Until you can ensure a 100% reliable link between the ground and aircraft, commercial UAVs are uninsurable. I don't see how anyone could ever ensure 100% reliability.

 

[Andy]

More evidence of the tide turning - even in Europe, which has historically been a tighter market than even the U.S.A. is now starting to have a few opportunities crop up. EasyJet is having a hard time crewing its Lisbon, Portugal base and if the rumor mill is to be believed they may start looking for DECs. Parc Aviation currently has summer A320 FO positions open for Aer Lingus out of Dublin - JAA required but no citizenship requirements posted. Going to be interesting pretty soon.

Interesting. I'd expect the pilot shortages to first appear in SW and SE Asia. Quickly followed by a shortage in the US regionals. I hadn't expected to see shortages in the EU.
In the US, I expect age 65 along with the ATP requirement, going into effect on 1 Aug 2013, to cause many majors to decrease frequency/upguage to mainline many city pairs that are now RJ-only.
One example is UAL's DEN-TUS flights. They're all RJs; 6 flights/day with 50 & 70 seaters. Cut that back to 4 flights/day with 2 RJs and 2 A320s. Same capacity with less frequency.

 

[twott driver]

You are assuming that the industry won't lobby their cronies in congress with lots of $$$$ to get the age 65 and ATP/Rest rules thrown out.... watch this space

 

[Andy]

You are assuming that the industry won't lobby their cronies in congress with lots of $$$$ to get the age 65 and ATP/Rest rules thrown out.... watch this space

Valid points.
I've chewed on the age 65 issue and am concerned that IATA will be pushing for a higher retirement age - fully embraced by ALPA (after more than a decade, I've become convinced that mobsters have more honor than unions). But that portion of the equation (increasing retirement age) can't be pushed out very much further in the US. I know that many over 60 think of themselves as real life Benjamin Buttons but that just isn't the case. Want to kill a profession? Stop having new members join the ranks. That's what the piloting profession has done over the last decade and it's going to bite them in the hind quarters starting in Dec 2012. We can kick the can down the road a little bit but the bite's going to be deeper.

ATP rule thrown out - very possible.

Rest rules thrown out - I don't think so. Too many problems with fatigued crews over the last few years. And this issue gets worse if you extend mandatory retirement age. Does anyone think that a 66 year old can get by with as little sleep as a 23 year old? My (22, 20 year old) kids kick my butt on that metric.

 

[Dumb Pilot]

Interesting. I'd expect the pilot shortages to first appear in SW and SE Asia. Quickly followed by a shortage in the US regionals. I hadn't expected to see shortages in the EU..

Well, there isn't a shortage of pilots in the EU per say, there is a shortage of good jobs, there are many JAA licensed pilots on the contract market that simply will not go back for what is being offered at some of this jobs that are showing up here and there, self sponsored (we know it as PFT) low pay, minimum days off and barely regulatory rest are some of the reasons why they are having difficulty filling up classes, not because there aren't enough pilots.

 

[Andy]

Well, there isn't a shortage of pilots in the EU per say, there is a shortage of good jobs, there are many JAA licensed pilots on the contract market that simply will not go back for what is being offered at some of this jobs that are showing up here and there, self sponsored (we know it as PFT) low pay, minimum days off and barely regulatory rest are some of the reasons why they are having difficulty filling up classes, not because there aren't enough pilots.

I want to apologize up front for sounding like a jerk; I have a tendency to do that.

We're saying the same thing. You're stating that the shortage of pilots (x axis of a labor supply-demand curve) in the EU is due to low pay and benefits (y axis of a labor supply-demand curve). The upward sloping supply of pilots is less than the downward sloping demand of pilots at the current wage rates. EU airlines will be forced to increase wages in order to have the supply-demand curves back in equilibrium. The end result will be more pilots hired in the EU at higher wages.
The shortages that the EU is starting to see are due to the higher wages offered by Middle Eastern and Asian airlines. They are forced to offer higher wages due to their own supply-demand imbalances.

I hadn't thought abut the supply and demand of pilots on a worldwide scale; age 65 is going to be a big game changer in terms of pilot wages due to the lack of new pilots entering the profession worldwide over the last decade.

 

[sniper]

Sorry gotta call bullcrap on this one.

You can call what you want to call Tom but the fact is a fact.

Mesa pilots would have made over 100k and a better contract back in 2003 if people like you did not go to Freedom.

I guess upgrading to a captain out of seniority as a freedom A pilot did not help your career. I see you change many jobs

cheers

 

[NEDude]

Well, there isn't a shortage of pilots in the EU per say, there is a shortage of good jobs, there are many JAA licensed pilots on the contract market that simply will not go back for what is being offered at some of this jobs that are showing up here and there, self sponsored (we know it as PFT) low pay, minimum days off and barely regulatory rest are some of the reasons why they are having difficulty filling up classes, not because there aren't enough pilots.

I didn't mean to imply there was a shortage of pilots in the EU, more to indicate to indicate what you are saying - the lower end jobs are finding it hard to fill seats at the compensation levels they have been able fill seats with in the past.

I think you are starting to see the "shortage" play itself out in Asia. I just got an email today advertising E-170/190 captains in China. The total 3 year compensation on this contract is north of a half million dollars after taxes (Chinese taxes are paid by the airline and the United States and China have a tax treaty which prevents double taxation).

The major "legacy" carriers - United, Delta, British Airways, Lufthansa, etc - will always be able to fill their flight deck seats. It is at the LCC and regional level where you will see issues, and you are beginning to see glimpses of that in a few places. EasyJet is having trouble crewing its Lisbon base, some regional airlines are having 10-20% no show rates for new-hire classes.

 

[Dumb Pilot]

I think you are starting to see the "shortage" play itself out in Asia. I just got an email today advertising E-170/190 captains in China. The total 3 year compensation on this contract is north of a half million dollars after taxes (Chinese taxes are paid by the airline and the United States and China have a tax treaty which prevents double taxation).

Many companies out here have had to increase their T&C'S to be able to attract suitable candidates, you are seeing more DEC positions being offered without time on type, cross training from Boeing to the Airbi without previous experience is also happening quite regularly, even in jobs that have 500 hours on type as part of their requirements are hiring guys without the time on type. Interesting times in Asia for sure

 

[pilotyip]

Oh to be 40 again in this upcoming job market.

 

[RJLoser]

Oh to be 40 again in this upcoming job market.

You'd give up older and wiser for it? Really?

 

[20sx]

Oh to be 40 again in this upcoming job market.

I'm 40, and I don't feel confidant yet about the shortage. With the thought of massive furloughs from Eagle and perhaps Pinnacle, even the regional market could be tough to get into over the next couple of years. I've been out of flying for almost 3 years with just a little to keep current. Have applied to regionals and haven't heard back...and I have over 4000TT with a little turbine PIC at the last 121 gig. Come on YIP, help me feel better about the future!

 

[Scapegoat]

Again, I just dont see a big pilot shortage on any level. Heres why:

1) I think that Legacy's will replace pilots on a 1:2 ratio at best. If you can get to one of those airlines you better like the right seat cuz all the guys that are currently there in their early 40's will be 68 before they retire and give their seat up to you. And dont get excited with any narrow body orders from em either. CO already takes these 737 ETOPS over to Ireland, look for Legacy's to stretch their use like regionals have done with RJ's.

2) Rest rules will hold up, I agree, but the ATP requirement will not. With that, they will be able to ramp up people for these jobs rather easily I think. How about all the people out of flying that have the itch to get back in. Easing requierments to transition from JAA to FAA. Extending the retirement age. All of these will factor in with the fact that there is no real domestic growth foreseeable (sp). DEN-TUL will never be on an airbus because the traveler (business and leisure), like high frequency which means 50-100 seat airplanes in this day and age. If any of these airlines could support 1 flight a day on a 757 from DEN-TUL, they would be doing it.

3) (last point), Look at Air Canada a few months ago when they tried to create a new airline within an airline. Same job but lower pay and less bene's. You think this effort is going to go away? Hell no. This will eventually succede in the US as well. Why? Because airlines have to make a profit for the sharholders. How can they do that? Cant hedge fuel anymore. Cant raise ticket prices unless someone else does. How do you save money?? Labor costs!! - (Salary, medical, retirement, etc.) They will all get less and less for the same work. Some US company will end up contracting out some real flying here in the next 7 years. No regioal stuff either. And who is gonna do these jobs? People unhappy with their current job will leave for an opportunity for the next big thing. People on the street who have left flying. Flight schools can get commercial students out within 8 months when they want to. (Think: "If you build it, they will come.") Look at all the people that VA is getting now. Ex Midwest Airlines, Comair people out of work and Skywest guys. Finding people will not be a problem. They are out there in towns big and small all across this country waiting......
Cuz no one is gonna go to the middle east or china to do this job if you have friends/ family here. Its just not worth it. (Im generalising of course.)

 

[NEDude]

Again, I just dont see a big pilot shortage on any level. Heres why:

1) I think that Legacy's will replace pilots on a 1:2 ratio at best. If you can get to one of those airlines you better like the right seat cuz all the guys that are currently there in their early 40's will be 68 before they retire and give their seat up to you. And dont get excited with any narrow body orders from em either. CO already takes these 737 ETOPS over to Ireland, look for Legacy's to stretch their use like regionals have done with RJ's.

2) Rest rules will hold up, I agree, but the ATP requirement will not. With that, they will be able to ramp up people for these jobs rather easily I think. How about all the people out of flying that have the itch to get back in. Easing requierments to transition from JAA to FAA. Extending the retirement age. All of these will factor in with the fact that there is no real domestic growth foreseeable (sp). DEN-TUL will never be on an airbus because the traveler (business and leisure), like high frequency which means 50-100 seat airplanes in this day and age. If any of these airlines could support 1 flight a day on a 757 from DEN-TUL, they would be doing it.

3) (last point), Look at Air Canada a few months ago when they tried to create a new airline within an airline. Same job but lower pay and less bene's. You think this effort is going to go away? Hell no. This will eventually succede in the US as well. Why? Because airlines have to make a profit for the sharholders. How can they do that? Cant hedge fuel anymore. Cant raise ticket prices unless someone else does. How do you save money?? Labor costs!! - (Salary, medical, retirement, etc.) They will all get less and less for the same work. Some US company will end up contracting out some real flying here in the next 7 years. No regioal stuff either. And who is gonna do these jobs? People unhappy with their current job will leave for an opportunity for the next big thing. People on the street who have left flying. Flight schools can get commercial students out within 8 months when they want to. (Think: "If you build it, they will come.") Look at all the people that VA is getting now. Ex Midwest Airlines, Comair people out of work and Skywest guys. Finding people will not be a problem. They are out there in towns big and small all across this country waiting......
Cuz no one is gonna go to the middle east or china to do this job if you have friends/ family here. Its just not worth it. (Im generalising of course.)

The problem with this is it assumes the number of students training remains constant. Student pilot starts are way down - like 15% of what they were ten years ago. The cost of training has sky rocketed and the quick and easy flight training loans are no longer out there. Some college flight programs that used to have waiting lists as little as 8 to 10 years ago now are only filling half their slots, and others are disappearing completely (Daniel Webster College).

The issue is not going to happen overnight, but the seeds are planted and the trend is visible - flight training numbers WAY down, flight schools closing doors due to lack of students, regional airlines now claiming "more than three failures" is when they start to have issues, other regionals struggling to fill classes, and overseas jobs increasing pay by over 50% (and offering U.S. bases in some cases) in as little as three years in attempts to draw pilots over there.

 

[HalinTexas]

When US carriers up the pay to attract pilots then I'll believe there's a shortage. Otherwise, there's only a shortage of pilots willing to work for what you're paying. It's not going to cripple the economy.

Look at China. They keep upping the contracts to attract people.

 

[pilotyip]

You'd give up older and wiser for it? Really?

Back then 3000 hour military pilots were a dime a dozen, being over 30 and getting a major interview was almost unheard of. Today I would almost have head of the line privileges.

I'm 40, and I don't feel confidant yet about the shortage. With the thought of massive furloughs from Eagle and perhaps Pinnacle, even the regional market could be tough to get into over the next couple of years. I've been out of flying for almost 3 years with just a little to keep current. Have applied to regionals and haven't heard back...and I have over 4000TT with a little turbine PIC at the last 121 gig. Come on YIP, help me feel better about the future!

Hang in there with a recovering economy, age 65 retirements coming up, and a shortage of talent developing, the 20121 hiring boom will be great for guys like you, start shopping.

 

[Secret Squirrel]

Back then 3000 hour military pilots were a dime a dozen, being over 30 and getting a major interview was almost unheard of. Today I would almost have head of the line privileges.

Hang in there with a recovering economy, age 65 retirements coming up, and a shortage of talent developing, the 20121 hiring boom will be great for guys like you, start shopping.

20121, or almost 20,000 years from now? They will have a star trek type transporter or we will have bombed ourselves into the stone age. Either way no need for pilots.

 

[pilotyip]

20121, or almost 20,000 years from now? They will have a star trek type transporter or we will have bombed ourselves into the stone age. Either way no need for pilots.

but you can bet sometime between now and 20121 there will be a pilot shortage, Luke Skywalker benefited from one