Pilot shortage?????

[pilotyip]

This is why airlines are requiring a 4 yr. degree. I can't figure out what you were trying to say.

do you have a 4 yaer degree? might be the prob

 

[LeonPhelps]

do you have a 4 yaer degree? might be the prob

As you can tell by my number of posts, I don't have much to say on here...just more of a reader. Nevertheless, it stands out that you constantly have something to say/have a chip on your shoulder about a college degree. Not flaming, just curious...what gives?

Cheers...

 

[HA25]

there will NEVER be a shortage of good pilot jobs (read Majors, Legacies).. the shortage will only exist at the $14,000/yr regional jobs. Don't bank on a shortage... and this new FAA NPRM for rest rules is only going to make it worse, with longer flight hour limits, and slim requirements for augmented crews for long haul.

 

[pilotyip]

As you can tell by my number of posts, I don't have much to say on here...just more of a reader. Nevertheless, it stands out that you constantly have something to say/have a chip on your shoulder about a college degree. Not flaming, just curious...what gives?

Cheers...

goes back a long way, maybe 2000 on the ole FI, my stance is a college degree has nothing to do with flying an airplane. Kinda a trademark. It is my duty to counter the constant barrage of "You must go to college to be a pilot". So any chance I see to comment on the 4 yr degree, it is my duty to take stance. I have flown with too many non-degreed guys who were superior to their degreed counterparts, I have flown with pilots who got their degrees while working with me, I saw no change in their ability. Yes I know you must have one to get an interview at maany places, because of the HR club. The highest paid people in my family do not have 4 yr degrees, the lowest paid people in my family have 4 yr degrees. BTW I have 4 year degree, and Master's.

 

[dillfer]

goes back a long way, maybe 2000 on the ole FI, my stance is a college degree has nothing to do with flying an airplane. Kinda a trademark. It is my duty to counter the constant barrage of "You must go to college to be a pilot". So any chance I see to comment on the 4 yr degree, it is my duty to take stance. I have flown with too many non-degreed guys who were superior to their degreed counterparts, I have flown with pilots who got their degrees while working with me, I saw no change in their ability. Yes I know you must have one to get an interview at maany places, because of the HR club. The highest paid people in my family do not have 4 yr degrees, the lowest paid people in my family have 4 yr degrees. BTW I have 4 year degree, and Master's.

Just a way to thin out the resume's. Can't imagine that many people would argue that you have to have a 4 year degree to fly.

 

[tankerhead]

Everyone knows that college kids can drink more and hold their alcohol better than their H.S. counterparts. You don't wanna layover with an amateur, do you?

 

[inline]

goes back a long way, maybe 2000 on the ole FI, my stance is a college degree has nothing to do with flying an airplane. Kinda a trademark. It is my duty to counter the constant barrage of "You must go to college to be a pilot". So any chance I see to comment on the 4 yr degree, it is my duty to take stance. I have flown with too many non-degreed guys who were superior to their degreed counterparts, I have flown with pilots who got their degrees while working with me, I saw no change in their ability. Yes I know you must have one to get an interview at maany places, because of the HR club. The highest paid people in my family do not have 4 yr degrees, the lowest paid people in my family have 4 yr degrees. BTW I have 4 year degree, and Master's.

Very true. The HR snobs hold your career in their hands. What's really a travesty is a pilot with several thousand hours, maybe a few type ratings and a HS diploma having to get a degree to be competitive for a flying job. Have seen it happen. Talk about putting the cart before the horse.

 

[flyburg]

I don't know what xenofobic means but if you mean xenophobic, I must totally disagree with you as I don't have an intense or irrational dislike or fear of people from other countries. What I do have a RATIONAL fear of are the likes of pilots such as many at some Indian or Chinese airlines who have totally fabricated their backgrounds, flying airliners in and over my country after seeing what can happen when control of said airliners is put in the control of people who wish us harm. It is not the harmless Dutch that are the target of terrorists all over the world, it is ME and my fellow Americans. And we ought to d*mn well know the people who are flying 800,000 pound, or 363,000 Kilos for you Dutch people (oh sorry, was that a xenophobic statement?) airliners over our cities. We have learned that the hard way!



My heart goes out to you.



I'm sure it is quitE extensive as it should be, so is ours! And once again, it is not the little harmless Netherlands that are the target of terrorists, it is the good ole USA! We have a very good reason for requiring the crew visa application you filled out. If your country decided to engage in some reciprocatry, or reciprocity as it were, it would be purely out of spite, a tit for tat sort of thing, not because your country felt it was necessary. Remember, many of the terrorists who attacked us came here through European countries. The terrorists that engage in attacks on other countries don't come through the USA. Something to think about!

My bad, and I apologise, I came on a little too strong!!

I understand the NL is not on the risk list, however, what I tried to say is that every airline flying over ot to the US has to submit a master crewlist (even the dutch) I assume the US does something with that list when it comes to risk countries! Same goes for the crew visa, I assume, mine got a cursory glance while the application from a risk country get's a more thorough check. So there is a check and I hope not a huge double standard!

When it comes to qualification requirements, that's a tough one, how do you enforce international standards?? How does one country check that the other countries pilot is qualified? However, that has nothing to do with security, that problem excisted long before 9/11.

Once again, I didn't mean to offend, just to give an insight of the requirments the US ask's of foreign pilots flying over or into the US

 

[thunderworm]

Just a way to thin out the resume's. Can't imagine that many people would argue that you have to have a 4 year degree to fly.

I agree. I have flown with many good guys that do not have a degree. I guess it just shows HR that a degree proves you have the ability to learn. I think that those who continue to go to school have a better time at learning new things like; types and new SOPs. BTW I have a masters.

 

[Emb120Trash]

For the people that don't think there is going to be a pilot shortage in the next few years, I don't think they understand the large number of baby boomers or guys between 55-65 years of age at the legacies/majors/lccs and have ran any real numbers to understand what is about to happen. In a few short years, American, Alaska, Ual/Cal, Airways, Southwest, Delta are going to have 2,000-3,000 pilots retiring annually for many years. If you take all the captains that are actually interested in moving on from the regionals like ASA, Eagle, SkyWest, Chataqua, Republic, Shuttle, Comair, Expressjet, Pinnacle, Transtates, Mesaba, Colgan, Commutair, Mesa, Great Lakes you may have 10,000 pilots. I know there are corporate and military pilots here as well, but it won't change the numbers that much. Without any growth, that leaves 3-4 years before the pool of qualified captains is drained. Take into consideration that not many people are all that interested in entering this profession and in the very near future both the regionals and legacies/majors/lccs/cargo will be crapping in there pants and we will finally see the pilot shortage that Kit Darby has been talking about for the last 30 years..HA! and I can't wait.

 

[Dumb Pilot]

It is already happening in the international market, you are seeing more and more non type rated opportunities out there

 

[pipejockey]

Maybe if we would butt the F out of other peoples business we would not have these problems.

Would it surprise you if I said that I totally agree! Not quite sure why you used my post as the prompt for your "mind your own business" opinion, but once again...I AGREE! The USA seems to think they have the right to force their will and ideals on the rest of the world...it's bullsh*t!

 

[pipejockey]

Just a way to thin out the resume's. Can't imagine that many people would argue that you have to have a 4 year degree to fly.

Realistically you don't need a degree of any sort for anything! 90% of what is learned in college is pushed right out of the mind shortly after taking your exams and graduating. On the job training and experience in what you will actually be doing is all that one really needs. A Harvard graduate isn't necessarily going to be a better CEO than a high school graduate that works alongside an experienced CEO for several years under his tutelage.

My bad, and I apologise, I came on a little too strong!!
Once again, I didn't mean to offend, just to give an insight of the requirments the US ask's of foreign pilots flying over or into the US

Thank you! Nor did I.

 

[Dumb Pilot]

it is not the little harmless Netherlands that are the target of terrorists, it is the good ole USA!

They are not????? I suggest you check your facts, the terrorism problem in Europe is deep rooted and long standing my dear sir. Terrorism is not an American problem, it is a world problem.

 

[TDK90]

It is already happening in the international market, you are seeing more and more non type rated opportunities out there

Could you offer a few examples? Apart from Emirates, who else is providing non-type rated opportunities?

 

[Dumb Pilot]

The opportunities are for folks with heavy jet experience under their belts but they are out there.
Out of the top of my head; ANA, Korean, Turkish, Air China

 

[pilotyip]

It is already happening in the international market, you are seeing more and more non type rated opportunities out there

Korean and Emirates were at the Flt Ops Job Fair in LAS last Friday. I picked up some of their handouts, I don’t remember seeing anything about having a 4-yr degree as a requirement. Could be they are just looking for people who fly airplanes.

 

[pipejockey]

They are not????? I suggest you check your facts, the terrorism problem in Europe is deep rooted and long standing my dear sir. Terrorism is not an American problem, it is a world problem.

Not wanting to split hairs, but the USA is the holy grail for terrorists! Anything done here will be on a massive scale like 9-11. Not some putz with a bomb strapped to himself. I have heard of terrorists targeting Britain, Spain, Japan, Israel, Japan, the former republics of the USSR, but I have NOT heard of much going on in the Netherlands. So my earlier statement about NED not being the target of terrorists stands. But I will say that any place that isn't a muslim nation will be a possible target at some level for the radical Islamists who offer us 2 choices.....convert or die!!

 

[HalinTexas]

I can speak first hand about China. I was there. Went through the process, recently. They don't have the "pencil-whipped" logbook problem there, and I've never seen it reported.

The airlines take the "kids" out of college, send them to flight school and watch them like a hawk. Then they come back to their in-house program for a couple of years of supervision. Once you start at the airline, they own you. That goes for expats flying over there. You have to get permission to change jobs. The one carrier I was about to work for used radio operators on a B737. As a result, I doubt you'll see any Chinese pilots outside of China. One Chinese national tried to change jobs, and was sued by his airline for over $100 g's for training costs.

The government treats their people pretty poorly, but you couldn't tell that by listening to them. The FO's on a Boeing/Bus are paid less than our RJ FO's, and the captains are paid about the same as an RJ CA. Their flight time and duty time regs are more stringent than the US.

My interview process was tougher than anything I've done in the US, Carrib. or S. America. My sim check was equal to a PC save for the V1 cut.

 

[dillfer]

Here's a gem.

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,898200,00.html

 

[NuGuy]

Here's a gem.

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,898200,00.html

Sad part is, a "massive" order for 33 jets and hiring 190 pilots still sounds pretty good.

Nu

 

[pipejockey]

The FO's on a Boeing/Bus are paid less than our RJ FO's, and the captains are paid about the same as an RJ CA.

And I bet that those Boeing/Bus FO's that are paid less than our RJ FO's are in the top 5% of income earners in China and are living like Princes. And those CA's who earn as much as our RJ CA's are in the top 1% of pay and are living like Kings. Now compare their lifestyles to the RJ pilots over here, and it will be like night and day. Our RJ FO don't even earn an average american wage, and the CA's can just about barely live comfortably depending upon where they reside. You can't just look at the face value of the earnings between our pilots and the Chinese pilots. Because you are able to live much higher on the hog over in China for a given dollar than you can here!

Bottom line is that I am sure the Chinese pilots are living lifestyles over in China compared to the average Chinese citizen that our RJ pilots over here can only dream of living compared to the average US citizen.

 

[SIG600]

All part of the 2012 hiring boom, by 2014 the college degree will no longer define who gets hired.

Yip I've been on this board a while, and you've been talking about the hiring "boom" forever. The only thing that seems to change is the date.

Nadda gonna happen. SWA got over 6,000 applications for their last round. For 100 positions. There is no shortage, nadda gonna be one.

 

[pilotyip]

Yip I've been on this board a while, and you've been talking about the hiring "boom" forever. The only thing that seems to change is the date.

Nadda gonna happen. SWA got over 6,000 applications for their last round. For 100 positions. There is no shortage, nadda gonna be one.

cause we have booms and busts, the last boom was 2007, everyone was getting jobs. I just came from the flt ops job Fair at LAS, a lot of the lower end airlines like us and the commuters are spending a lot more time recruiting to fill our classes. Even FedEx elected to show up at the last minute to see what was going on in the pilot job market. Not that they will have any problems, other than they may have to hire fewer military pilots, just because they are just many of them any more. Just watch. Lot o job coming, and you can take that to the bank,. BTW The 6,000 SWA apps was less than the 10,000 apps that DAL had in 1997, when they said they that they were all set. By 1998, they were down to about 1500, why? Because every airline had the same 10,000 resumes, and after a big hiring year in 97 and 98, where 10,000 were hired, the resume pool was empty. Those 6,000 SWA resume are shared by almost any who flies an airplane

 

[Dumb Pilot]

​

ICAO STUDY REVEALS STRONG DEMAND FOR QUALIFIED AVIATION PERSONNEL UP TO 2030
MONTRÉAL, 8 March 2011 – More than two million jobs are projected for pilots, maintenance personnel and air traffic controllers as a result of the retirement of qualified professionals and the anticipated growth of commercial air transport to the year 2030.
According to a study just published by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) - Global and Regional 20-year Forecasts – Pilots, Maintenance Personnel and Air Traffic Controllers, ICAO estimates the number of commercially-operated aircraft will have jumped from 61,833 in 2010 to 151,565 between 2010 and 2030, and the number of departures from around 26 million to almost 52 million. This would more than double the current number of pilots, maintenance personnel and air traffic controllers worldwide.
The ICAO study compares the average number of professionals worldwide that will need to be trained annually with the training capacity of existing facilities. This reveals a shortfall of training capacity equivalent to 160,000 pilots, 360,000 maintenance personnel, and 40,000 air traffic controllers.
[FONT=Times New Roman,Times New Roman][FONT=Times New Roman,Times New Roman]

​

Personnel category
Current population (2010)
Population needed (2030)
Training needs *
Training capacity *
Shortage *
Pilots
463,386
980,799
52,506
44,360
8,146
Maintenance
580,926
1,164,969
70,331
52,260
18,071
Controllers
67,024
139,796
8,718
6,740
1,978

[/FONT][/FONT]

​

* estimated on an average annual basis

​

"If no action to increase training capacity is initiated early, shortages in qualified aviation personnel are likely. Thanks to this latest ICAO study, the extent and locations of such shortages can now be better identified and effectively addressed by Member States, industry and other concerned stakeholders," said Raymond Benjamin, ICAO Secretary General.
As part of its mission to maintain the safety of the global air transport system, ICAO is providing leadership in the development of solutions aimed at ensuring that sufficient competent personnel are available. A Next Generation of Aviation Professionals (NGAP) Symposium convened last year by ICAO outlined a strategy for the recruitment, education, training and retention of aviation professionals. A follow up event is planned for April 2012.
Note to Editors: for additional information - http://store1.icao.int/documentItemView.ch2?ID=10242
ICAO Newsroom: http://www2.icao.int/en/newsroom/default.aspx

 

[cynic]

http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos107.htm#outlook

Regional airlines and low-cost carriers will present the best opportunities; pilots attempting to get jobs at the major airlines will face strong competition... <snip> Employment of aircraft pilots and flight engineers is projected to grow 12 percent from 2008 to 2018, which is about as fast as the average for all occupations... Pilots attempting to get jobs at the major airlines will face strong competition, as those firms tend to attract many more applicants than the number of job openings. Applicants also will have to compete with laid-off pilots for any available jobs.... <snip> Employment of pilots is sensitive to cyclical swings in the economy... <snip>


Median annual wages of commercial pilots were $65,340 in May 2008. The middle 50 percent earned between $45,680 and $89,540. The lowest 10 percent earned less than $32,020, and the highest 10 percent earned more than $129,580.


Pretty good pay when all you need to do to become a pilot is whip out a credit card, pay for some licenses and then suck up REALLY bad pay for a few years... Get started early and it's a great career for someone that lacks academic ability.

 

[HalinTexas]

And I bet that those Boeing/Bus FO's that are paid less than our RJ FO's are in the top 5% of income earners in China and are living like Princes. And those CA's who earn as much as our RJ CA's are in the top 1% of pay and are living like Kings. Now compare their lifestyles to the RJ pilots over here, and it will be like night and day. Our RJ FO don't even earn an average american wage, and the CA's can just about barely live comfortably depending upon where they reside. You can't just look at the face value of the earnings between our pilots and the Chinese pilots. Because you are able to live much higher on the hog over in China for a given dollar than you can here!

Bottom line is that I am sure the Chinese pilots are living lifestyles over in China compared to the average Chinese citizen that our RJ pilots over here can only dream of living compared to the average US citizen.

The new-ish FO's still live with their parents or in company or government subsidized housing. They may live better than many other Chinese, but I wouldn't call it "tall cotton." They have very high income tax rates there, and the cities are NOT cheap places to live. They don't work as hard, either.

 

[pilotyip]

not sure

Get started early and it's a great career for someone that lacks academic ability.

actually that is the opposite of what I have expereinced, the best pilots normally score high on our entrance exams, it doesn't mean they have academic creditials, but that their basic intelligence is above average.

 

[mbw]

A pilot shortage is just like the "Free Beer Tomorrow" sign... always right around the corner, but never here!

Spring 2012 and still no free beer! WTF

 

[HA25]

Spring 2012 and still no free beer! WTF

gentleman lets face it, this career is dead.