Pilot shortage?????

[livin'thesim]

At best, I think there will be less of a glut of pilots. IT may feel like a shortage to some, and there may be some occasional anecdotal evidence of difficulty finding qualified pilots, but I don't see an actual "shortage", in the strict sense of the word.

How/when/if the new 1500 hour rule is enforced will play a significant role, IMO.

 

[atpcliff]

Yes with a two year time frame to implement, just like 135 scheduled commuter converting to 121 back in 1996

The Flight/Duty/Rest rules are required by Congressional law to be implemented/in use/in effect prior to 1 Aug. Congressional law gave the airlines a 3 year time frame before the start of the ATP requirement for -121.

I'm almost sure there will be some loophole that corporate america, in this case the airline industry, will create to allow these flight schools that promise the world but deliver a pile of sh*t, to circumvent the 1500 ATP requirement

The FAA rules COULD require less than 1500 hours, but Federal Law requires that all -121 pilots have an ATP by 1 Aug, 2013.

How/when/if the new 1500 hour rule

There is no 1500 hour rule. There is an ATP requirement for all -121 pilots that is LAW, but the actual FAA rules have not been established. Theoretically, the FAA rules may require less than 1500 hours as a requirement to get your ATP. Congress has recommended 1500 hours be one of the minimums for getting an ATP as of 1 Aug 2013.

 

[ualdriver]

And another point I think one should consider, especially a young person, about any future pilot shortage. Let's say that there is a shortage in the next few years.....but let's take a longer view. Do you think that someday, maybe within a decade or two for example, countries like India or China will be able to produce their own supply of pilots? Of course they will be able to. And when that happens, then what? Will we see cheap 3rd world pilots flooding the market willing to work for wages far less than an American pilot? Gee, where have we seen something like this happen before?

So, as a young person deciding to become a pilot, do you sink tens of thousands of dollars, perhaps as high as six figures, into a career where in your 30's or 40's you might be replaced with cheap third world labor, much like what happened to the American factory worker? There is a very real possibility that could happen, and it would suck to be a 40 year old pilot with a family to support and a mortgage to pay to have to retrain for another career.

The heyday of being an American airline pilot, just like the heyday of being a factory worker, may very well be in the rearview mirror, even if in the up and coming years we hit a cycle or two of "pilot hiring booms." If I were a young person, I think I would give this career a pass or at the very least have the money and education for an immediate switch to Plan B when some Indian dude is willing to fly a 777 for a bushel of radishes per flight and $20,000 per year.

 

[bsip03]

I agree somewhat with UAlDriver, but I think there would be a monumental task in getting security clearances for these people to work such a position in the US.

Where would you even begin to do background checks on people from third world countries?

 

[cynic]

Will we see cheap 3rd world pilots flooding the market willing to work for wages far less than an American pilot?

That is the general conundrum faced in the US. How do you allow US workers to compete fairly in a global market that does not enforce worker rights?

My factory workers have a union and won't work for $1 a day. Piss off... I'll make my shirts in China where a communist regime will squash a union like an ant hill and then sell my shirts here in the US.

So what do we do? Do we refuse to trade with countries like China? Use tariffs to create a level playing field? Wait and see?

I've never heard one politician produce a solution to this problem. We are in uncharted territory. The US middle class is dying off.
Countries like China can't drive consumption on their own. They have no middle class to speak of.

It's a problem....

 

[ualdriver]

I agree somewhat with UAlDriver, but I think there would be a monumental task in getting security clearances for these people to work such a position in the US.

Where would you even begin to do background checks on people from third world countries?

I am not trying to devolve this thread into a class on economics or whether or not the US middle class is disappearing....

I think when airlines have the ability to literally save 100's of millions on annual pilot costs by substituting an Indian pilot or a Chinese pilot with a US pilot, they will find a way. My airline, for example, pays its pilots over a billion a year in pay and benefits, never mind all those pesky US labor laws that cost them even more. With the money they would save, they could certainly throw a lot of money at that "problem" of background checks.

Is a young person in 2011 telling his parents that he/she wants to be an airline pilot the same as a young person in the 1960's saying that he wants to be a factory worker? Do you sink a high five figure/low six figure sum to take that bet? Is a near term "pilot shortage" the shiny object that distracts us and the career changer and the young person wannabe pilots from the true danger that lurks just over the horizon, just out of sight?

 

[tzskipper]

I am not trying to devolve this thread into a class on economics or whether or not the US middle class is disappearing....

I think when airlines have the ability to literally save 100's of millions on annual pilot costs by substituting an Indian pilot or a Chinese pilot with a US pilot, they will find a way. My airline, for example, pays its pilots over a billion a year in pay and benefits, never mind all those pesky US labor laws that cost them even more. With the money they would save, they could certainly throw a lot of money at that "problem" of background checks.

Is a young person in 2011 telling his parents that he/she wants to be an airline pilot the same as a young person in the 1960's saying that he wants to be a factory worker? Do you sink a high five figure/low six figure sum to take that bet?

Cheap labor from China and India? Have you seen the ex-pat contract pay and benefits packages for those two countries? Our industry is about the only one, where (in a strict financial sense) you have to go to a third world in order to get paid a professional wage.

S

 

[ualdriver]

Cheap labor from China and India? Have you seen the ex-pat contract pay and benefits packages for those two countries? Our industry is about the only one, where (in a strict financial sense) you have to go to a third world in order to get paid a professional wage.

S

I think if you reread my post 63, my opinion is based upon the fact that countries like India and China are someday going to be able to produce their own pilots. If you think that up and coming countries like India and China are going to let themselves be dependent upon other nations for their supply of professionals, whether it be airline pilots, engineers, doctors, or whatever, I think you will be in for a surprise in the future.

 

[wrxpilot]

I think if you reread my post 63, my opinion is based upon the fact that countries like India and China are someday going to be able to produce their own pilots. If you think that up and coming countries like India and China are going to let themselves be dependent upon other nations for their supply of professionals, whether it be airline pilots, engineers, doctors, or whatever, I think you will be in for a surprise in the future.

It's possible, but I seriously doubt anyplace in the world will EVER be able to train pilots as cheaply as the US does. We have in infrastructure that has taken decades (and several world wars) to develop, as well as a taxpayer funded system with little no no user fees.

It is EXTREMELY cost prohibitive for anyone outside the military to fund their own flight training unless it's in the US. So I really don't see how your Indian pilot example makes any sense. Do you actually think other countries will offer more affordable flight training than the US in the future?

 

[ualdriver]

It's possible, but I seriously doubt anyplace in the world will EVER be able to train pilots as cheaply as the US does. We have in infrastructure that has taken decades (and several world wars) to develop, as well as a taxpayer funded system with little no no user fees.

It is EXTREMELY cost prohibitive for anyone outside the military to fund their own flight training unless it's in the US. So I really don't see how your Indian pilot example makes any sense. Do you actually think other countries will offer more affordable flight training than the US in the future?

I don't know. Countries like China have an endless supply of cheap labor and their government likes to build stuff.....like big capital projects that keep people employed and the country stable. Who's to say they don't start building airports as their airspace is slowly opened for non-military use?

 

[CaptSeth]

Chinese buying Cirrus and Continental. Hmmm

 

[wrxpilot]

I don't know. Countries like China have an endless supply of cheap labor and their government likes to build stuff.....like big capital projects that keep people employed and the country stable. Who's to say they don't start building airports as their airspace is slowly opened for non-military use?

Even if they do, they have a LONG, LONG way to go before they have an infrastructure in place like the US. Even then, I seriously doubt they'll be anywhere close to offering "cheap" civilian pilot training. Do you think they're going to subsidize avgas as well?

 

[ualdriver]

Even if they do, they have a LONG, LONG way to go before they have an infrastructure in place like the US. Even then, I seriously doubt they'll be anywhere close to offering "cheap" civilian pilot training. Do you think they're going to subsidize avgas as well?

I think you underestimate the Chinese and their desire to be just like us, but better.

I do not know if they subsidize avgas. I do know that they subsidize gasoline, although that is changing in an attempt to encourage efficiency.

Even if training is done more cheaply in the US and therefore they train over here, does that mean that they will not work for a lesser wage than a US pilot? Why is United replacing United pilots with Aer Lingus pilots, even though it is far more expensive to train in the EU vs. the US?

The point of this whole conversation is that it is very possible that two decades(?) from now, US pilots could easily be replaced with pilots from other countries who will work for a lesser wage than we are willing to work for. Short term cycles that create temporary "pilot shortages" may make it appear that there is a demand for US pilots, but over the long term there is a distinct possibility those same US pilots could be replaced with cheaper, foreign airline pilot labor.

 

[bahumba]

I think you underestimate the Chinese and their desire to be just like us, but better.

I do not know if they subsidize avgas. I do know that they subsidize gasoline, although that is changing in an attempt to encourage efficiency....

UALdriver I totally agree with your direction in these posts. For those familiar with China it is a "Command Economy" system driven by a series of 5 year plans. All it would take would be a 5 year plan that emphasizes general aviation/student pilot production. They can be a major player virtually overnight (ie 5 years) Then look out world!

Frats: Bahumba

 

[wrxpilot]

I believe you guys are paranoid to the point of illogical thought. What would the Chinese gain by spending that much on aviation infrastructure over the next five years, including subsidizing the crap out of avgas? Some cheaper airline pilots? That makes absolutely no economic sense, and the Chinese typically do not do irrational things that don't make economical sense.

 

[Smarta$$]

Heyas,

I still have friends in the flight training business (really? I have friends?), and this is what they say:

Domestic student starts are way, way down. Those on a "career track" at non-career schools (ERAU, UND, FSI, etc) are practically non-existant. There is still a trickle of activity of folks doing their PPL, or IR, and some fairly good activity if you are a "botique" instructor that does type specific training, such as Cirrus or Beech initial or recurrent.

Despite that, finding CFIs is darn near impossible. This is the way it was explained to me:

Look at the hiring window from 1995-2001, and the one prior to that (1986-1989). LOTS of people being hired by LOTS of operators, with LOTS of turnover. Multiple majors would often pump 100/mo through their training pipelines.

Regionals/commuters, overall, were smaller, and you would think, less able to handle the turnover because the relative percentage of people leaving was high.

Despite this, the regionals/commuters still found all the people they needed with ESSENTIALLY ATP mins. Sure, it may have dipped at bit during peak months, but anything below 1000/100 was pretty darn rare, and 1500 and 200 was the typical norm, with the mature regionals getting much higher mins.

Still plenty of people lining up to do the dirty work for crap money. People either came out of the military, or followed the standard civilian career track in which a CFI was a part of.

Fast forward to 2006-08. Slight recovery, majors start to hire again, but numbers of outfits hiring and the overall numbes were MUCH lower than the previous booms. Regionals were much larger, and in threory, should have been better able to cope, because the overall percentage of turnover was far lower.

Yet despite this, regionals had to lower their minimums to wet commercial ticket levels to fill a comparatively lower number of seats...even at VERY mature outfits with decent (relatively) pay and work rules.

Another aspect of this was a far greater percentage of pilots skipped the CFI route. Why bother if you were going to drop right into the right seat of a Barbie Jet at 300 hours? Thus the complete lack of CFIs these days.

Why?

1) Kids are smart. The media and high school today have conditioned kids to go for the maximum result for minimum effort, and they can read teh intrawebz. They realize the risk/return for this career sucks unless you get really lucky.

2) Information is everywhere. You no longer have to subscribe to FAPA or AIR INC to get the information on what's what, and the information is no longer "sole source" or word of mouth, so you get a MUCH wider range of real world conditions.

3) It's really expensive. In 1990 dollars, you could go zero to hero for about $15k, all in, including room and board. If you apply inflation to that, it should run you about $25k today, but in reality, it's probably closer to $35-$40k, assuming you don't get scammed out of your money along the way.

4) Because kids these days need to see instant gratification, the 1,500 hour rule will probably deter a percentage of the every shrinking pool who do decide blow their hard earned cash. VERY, VERY few kids these days do anything for the "love of it"...everything has a price tag attached.

So here we are: No CFIs, Expensive airplanes, a change in flight/time duty time rules, the 1,500 hour rule.

But my prediction is that there will STILL be no pilot shortage, but there will remain, as always, a shortage of pilots willing to work for crap wages at the regionals or anywhere else.

If the regionals were to offer major like compensation packages, the "shortage" would solve itself, because there are a LOT of pilots sidelined because the job is no longer worth doing. But pay the going rate, and watch those classes fill up.

Cancelling flights because of lack of crews when you are paying them FAR BELOW market wages DOES NOT COUNT as a shortage, just a bad business plan.

When major airlines, who are paying their crews somewhat appropriate compensation (I said somewhat, not optimum), start cancelling flights because their classes go unfilled, then yea, that's a shortage.

But you won't see that.

Nu

Great post. My favorite paragraph is underlined. So true.

 

[pipejockey]

I agree somewhat with UAlDriver, but I think there would be a monumental task in getting security clearances for these people to work such a position in the US.

Where would you even begin to do background checks on people from third world countries?

So these foreigners would need extensive background and PRIA type checks to work for a US based airline, but does anyone have any idea what background checks are required for a pilot working for a foreign airline that flies into the US and all over the US airspace? A huge double standard! I think it's a huge security threat to this country to let all these foreign airliners staffed by pilots who they know absolutely nothing about.

 

[HalinTexas]

I can assure you that background checks are as tough, if not tougher (and more expensive), than the US. I can speak for China and India, and I'm sure we all know how tough it is to work in the EU.

 

[27 driver]

China and India already have abinitio programs with American expat pilots doing the training. There are many American direct hire captains flying contract work in these places training young pilots that have gone through airline sponsored training programs and are now in the right seat of A320's or 737's with 300 hrs. We are training our own replacement pilots. You have to love the irony. Oh ya, if you think that these pilots won't be able to get clearance to fly in the US you are sadly mistaken. We give terrorists visa's every day. Open sky agreements are on the way.

 

[zasca]

CHINA has tough background checks???

Seems like there was a story not too far back finding a huge percentage of Chinese pilots had falsified licenses, logbooks, and/or medicals.