Pilot shortage?????

[get2flyin]

Two upcoming events will have to drive new hiring: Age 65 retirements, rest rule changes.

Don't worry, I'm sure the movement to change the retirement age to 70 is well underway and don't try to stop it because that would make you a greedy punk. (Rolling eyes)

 

[xjhawk]

US Airways....? Never, I would not want to be making regional FO pay at a major. That needs to be fixed before I touch that place with someone elses........

 

[Peardc10]

Pilot shortage according to Aviation Week

Aviationweek.com January 24/31 2011

"Pilot shortage" is a threat that has waxed and waned over the last decade, but which has yet to become a reality-except for some unfortunate airlines in high-growth markets where demand already outpaces supply.
Raising the retirement age for pilots and cutting fleet capacity during the economic downturn postponed the problem for most airlines, but Boeing and others are warning the day of reckoning is fast approaching.
With the five-year reprieve gained by raising the retirement age to 65 drawing to a close, and capacity growth returning, the pilot-shortage threat level is again being raised-even in the U.S., where hundreds of furloughed flight crew remain to be recalled.
Based on its outlook for global aircraft deliveries, Boeing sees fleet growth and pilot retirements almost doubling the demand for pilots over the next 20 years. Total demand for more than 466,000 pilots is forecast for 2010-2029-an average of 23,300 new pilots a year.
The largest growth will be in the Asia-Pacific region, with a requirement for 180,600 pilots-70,600 of those in China. There is already a growing shortage of pilots in Asia-and in the Middle East, where Boeing forecasts a need for 32,700 pilots in the next 20 years.
Demand in North America and Europe will be unprecedented by recent history standards, with Boeing predicting a need for nearly 97,400 and 94,800 pilots, respectively, in markets that seem ill-prepared to respond.
In the U.S. 37,000 pilots will be needed over the next 10 years, rising to 56,000 over the next 14 years, just to replace retirements and not accounting for any fleet expansion. But new-pilot starts and down by 50-80% in the U.S., reaching a 10 year low in 2010, so the pipe-line is not being replenished let alone expanded.
Reasons include unattractive pay and conditions at the regional airlines, which have traditionally acted as pilot farms for the majors. And those individuals who still want to be pilots now face difficulties obtaining bank financing for training.
Congressional legislation requiring a minimum 1,500 hr. experience, up from 250 hr., will only exacerbate the problem as it will take new pilots 3-4 years, rather than a year, to reach the new target by traditional means.

 

[cynic]

Flying airplanes is pretty darn easy and it's a fun job! The ONLY barrier to entry is the ability to pay for flight training.

Unless someone wants to do something like require a Master's degree to obtain an ATP (not that I think it's necessary so settle down pilotyip) ; It is highly unlikely that pay rates will change. When a job is easy and fun and a whole lot of people can do it, it doesn't pay well. Check starting salaries for resort scuba instructors for a comparison

 

[bri5150]

Flying airplanes is pretty darn easy and it's a fun job! The ONLY barrier to entry is the ability to pay for flight training.

Unless someone wants to do something like require a Master's degree to obtain an ATP (not that I think it's necessary so settle down pilotyip) ; It is highly unlikely that pay rates will change. When a job is easy and fun and a whole lot of people can do it, it doesn't pay well. Check starting salaries for resort scuba instructors for a comparison

Listen to Cynic. He knows what he is talking about because he models molecular biophysics on a big super computer. A job that couldn't possibly be outsourced to the lowest bidder. *sarcasm*

 

[Gillegan]

It's been a pretty miserable 15 years for our profession so it's no wonder that folks are sceptical of the numbers. The same demographics that have made for stagnating career progression in the U.S. - a large number of pilots born in the late 40's and early 50's will also fuel a hiring boom. Add to that the growth in Asia (the Chinese are starting to pay) and the fact that no one is going into the profession (because of these miserable 15 years) and there will be jobs. I've read the Boeing report and the numbers don't lie. There will be some big changes in our profession over the next 15 years - don't ask me what, I'm as curious as you. There have been shortages before (mid 1960's) and they seem to come all at once.

 

[hopalong]

It's been a pretty miserable 15 years for our profession so it's no wonder that folks are sceptical of the numbers. The same demographics that have made for stagnating career progression in the U.S. - a large number of pilots born in the late 40's and early 50's will also fuel a hiring boom. Add to that the growth in Asia (the Chinese are starting to pay) and the fact that no one is going into the profession (because of these miserable 15 years) and there will be jobs. I've read the Boeing report and the numbers don't lie. There will be some big changes in our profession over the next 15 years - don't ask me what, I'm as curious as you. There have been shortages before (mid 1960's) and they seem to come all at once.

Great post!

 

[Gillegan]

There has been growth in the last 20 years but it has largely been at the regionals - for the aforementioned slave wages. I would expect a concerted effort to address the numbers while minimizing the pay. Look for modest improvements in regional pay and a big effort to attack scope along with creative ways to get around the training (MPL?). Supply and demand should mean an improvement in pay but ironically, the inflexibility of the unions may actually slow down the pay increases as the pilots, stung by the stagnation of the last 15-20 years opt for stability and long term contracts over rolling the dice. And don't forget, the Railway Labor Act is geared to maintain the status quo.

 

[Jetjockey]

Flying airplanes is pretty darn easy and it's a fun job! The ONLY barrier to entry is the ability to pay for flight training.

Unless someone wants to do something like require a Master's degree to obtain an ATP (not that I think it's necessary so settle down pilotyip) ; It is highly unlikely that pay rates will change. When a job is easy and fun and a whole lot of people can do it, it doesn't pay well. Check starting salaries for resort scuba instructors for a comparison

Mr. Mensa himself has spoken. All hail the high and mighty computer geek! Don't you have some term papers to correct?

 

[27 driver]

And don't forget, the Railway Labor Act is geared to maintain the status quo.[/QUOTE]

You nailed it. Until we get out from under the RLA there will be minuscule changes and minor improvements in pay at the cost of scope or QOL. Management has the upper hand in our negotiations and they know it. Until we are legally able to or have the cojones to withhold our services things won't change. As long as I have been around there has always been a steady stream of people willing to work for poverty wages to build time and move on. IMHO that will not change. We are our own worst enemy. I truly hope there is a looming shortage but they have been predicting this as long as I can remember and it hasn't happened. Time will tell.