Pilot shortage?????

[get2flyin]

Two upcoming events will have to drive new hiring: Age 65 retirements, rest rule changes.

Don't worry, I'm sure the movement to change the retirement age to 70 is well underway and don't try to stop it because that would make you a greedy punk. (Rolling eyes)

 

[xjhawk]

US Airways....? Never, I would not want to be making regional FO pay at a major. That needs to be fixed before I touch that place with someone elses........

 

[Peardc10]

Pilot shortage according to Aviation Week

Aviationweek.com January 24/31 2011

"Pilot shortage" is a threat that has waxed and waned over the last decade, but which has yet to become a reality-except for some unfortunate airlines in high-growth markets where demand already outpaces supply.
Raising the retirement age for pilots and cutting fleet capacity during the economic downturn postponed the problem for most airlines, but Boeing and others are warning the day of reckoning is fast approaching.
With the five-year reprieve gained by raising the retirement age to 65 drawing to a close, and capacity growth returning, the pilot-shortage threat level is again being raised-even in the U.S., where hundreds of furloughed flight crew remain to be recalled.
Based on its outlook for global aircraft deliveries, Boeing sees fleet growth and pilot retirements almost doubling the demand for pilots over the next 20 years. Total demand for more than 466,000 pilots is forecast for 2010-2029-an average of 23,300 new pilots a year.
The largest growth will be in the Asia-Pacific region, with a requirement for 180,600 pilots-70,600 of those in China. There is already a growing shortage of pilots in Asia-and in the Middle East, where Boeing forecasts a need for 32,700 pilots in the next 20 years.
Demand in North America and Europe will be unprecedented by recent history standards, with Boeing predicting a need for nearly 97,400 and 94,800 pilots, respectively, in markets that seem ill-prepared to respond.
In the U.S. 37,000 pilots will be needed over the next 10 years, rising to 56,000 over the next 14 years, just to replace retirements and not accounting for any fleet expansion. But new-pilot starts and down by 50-80% in the U.S., reaching a 10 year low in 2010, so the pipe-line is not being replenished let alone expanded.
Reasons include unattractive pay and conditions at the regional airlines, which have traditionally acted as pilot farms for the majors. And those individuals who still want to be pilots now face difficulties obtaining bank financing for training.
Congressional legislation requiring a minimum 1,500 hr. experience, up from 250 hr., will only exacerbate the problem as it will take new pilots 3-4 years, rather than a year, to reach the new target by traditional means.

 

[cynic]

Flying airplanes is pretty darn easy and it's a fun job! The ONLY barrier to entry is the ability to pay for flight training.

Unless someone wants to do something like require a Master's degree to obtain an ATP (not that I think it's necessary so settle down pilotyip) ; It is highly unlikely that pay rates will change. When a job is easy and fun and a whole lot of people can do it, it doesn't pay well. Check starting salaries for resort scuba instructors for a comparison

 

[bri5150]

Flying airplanes is pretty darn easy and it's a fun job! The ONLY barrier to entry is the ability to pay for flight training.

Unless someone wants to do something like require a Master's degree to obtain an ATP (not that I think it's necessary so settle down pilotyip) ; It is highly unlikely that pay rates will change. When a job is easy and fun and a whole lot of people can do it, it doesn't pay well. Check starting salaries for resort scuba instructors for a comparison

Listen to Cynic. He knows what he is talking about because he models molecular biophysics on a big super computer. A job that couldn't possibly be outsourced to the lowest bidder. *sarcasm*

 

[Gillegan]

It's been a pretty miserable 15 years for our profession so it's no wonder that folks are sceptical of the numbers. The same demographics that have made for stagnating career progression in the U.S. - a large number of pilots born in the late 40's and early 50's will also fuel a hiring boom. Add to that the growth in Asia (the Chinese are starting to pay) and the fact that no one is going into the profession (because of these miserable 15 years) and there will be jobs. I've read the Boeing report and the numbers don't lie. There will be some big changes in our profession over the next 15 years - don't ask me what, I'm as curious as you. There have been shortages before (mid 1960's) and they seem to come all at once.

 

[hopalong]

It's been a pretty miserable 15 years for our profession so it's no wonder that folks are sceptical of the numbers. The same demographics that have made for stagnating career progression in the U.S. - a large number of pilots born in the late 40's and early 50's will also fuel a hiring boom. Add to that the growth in Asia (the Chinese are starting to pay) and the fact that no one is going into the profession (because of these miserable 15 years) and there will be jobs. I've read the Boeing report and the numbers don't lie. There will be some big changes in our profession over the next 15 years - don't ask me what, I'm as curious as you. There have been shortages before (mid 1960's) and they seem to come all at once.

Great post!

 

[Gillegan]

There has been growth in the last 20 years but it has largely been at the regionals - for the aforementioned slave wages. I would expect a concerted effort to address the numbers while minimizing the pay. Look for modest improvements in regional pay and a big effort to attack scope along with creative ways to get around the training (MPL?). Supply and demand should mean an improvement in pay but ironically, the inflexibility of the unions may actually slow down the pay increases as the pilots, stung by the stagnation of the last 15-20 years opt for stability and long term contracts over rolling the dice. And don't forget, the Railway Labor Act is geared to maintain the status quo.

 

[Jetjockey]

Flying airplanes is pretty darn easy and it's a fun job! The ONLY barrier to entry is the ability to pay for flight training.

Unless someone wants to do something like require a Master's degree to obtain an ATP (not that I think it's necessary so settle down pilotyip) ; It is highly unlikely that pay rates will change. When a job is easy and fun and a whole lot of people can do it, it doesn't pay well. Check starting salaries for resort scuba instructors for a comparison

Mr. Mensa himself has spoken. All hail the high and mighty computer geek! Don't you have some term papers to correct?

 

[27 driver]

And don't forget, the Railway Labor Act is geared to maintain the status quo.[/QUOTE]

You nailed it. Until we get out from under the RLA there will be minuscule changes and minor improvements in pay at the cost of scope or QOL. Management has the upper hand in our negotiations and they know it. Until we are legally able to or have the cojones to withhold our services things won't change. As long as I have been around there has always been a steady stream of people willing to work for poverty wages to build time and move on. IMHO that will not change. We are our own worst enemy. I truly hope there is a looming shortage but they have been predicting this as long as I can remember and it hasn't happened. Time will tell.

 

[pipejockey]

Very simple to answer this. There will NEVER EVER EVER NEVER EVER EVER NEVER EVER be a shortage of airline pilots for US major carriers. There will always be plenty of RJ CA's with 1,000 pic, which after all only takes about 3 to 4 years from regional newhire to 1,000 PIC regional CA when there is a lot of movement. The only pilot shortages that may arise for brief moments in time are at the regionals. We have seen it in the past and will see it again. But it will never be a longterm problem. And for those of you that think this may be a good thing for regional pilots and give them leverage to raise pay, well think again. Before airline management will ever pay regional pilots a wage that will allow them to live well above the average American, which WOULD attract more people to the profession, they would first stand on street corners and offer company paid ab-initio training from 0 hours to RJ FO job, to any schmuck willing to try. This is the level of respect they have for those of us that have devoted our lives to this profession...nice huh?

 

[pipejockey]

Aviationweek.com January 24/31 2011
With the five-year reprieve gained by raising the retirement age to 65drawing to a close,and capacity growth returning,

Yes, this pilot shortage talk occurred in 1999 through August 2001, but then there was 9-11 and the reprieve that created, then our destruction of all those WMD's in Iraq in 2003 creating another drop off in travel and yet another reprieve, then oil prices that starting going up considerably in 2007 and early 2008 causing cutbacks and another reprieve, then the worst recession since the Great Depression as a result of 8 years of Bushenomics and another reprieve, now oil prices in 2011 and you guessed it, another reprieve. Bottomline is that this industry is so delicate and precarious that there will always be some issue that send it running with it's tail between it's legs. And on top of the oil price issue at the moment, I'd love to know how the Japan Earthquake/Tsunami/Nuclear meltdown is going to effect Delta and AA's revenue. Doesn't UAL go there as well?

Reasons include unattractive pay and conditions at the regional airlines, which have traditionally acted as pilot farms for the majors. And those individuals who still want to be pilots now face difficulties obtaining bank financing for training.
Congressional legislation requiring a minimum 1,500 hr. experience, up from 250 hr., will only exacerbate the problem as it will take new pilots 3-4 years, rather than a year, to reach the new target by traditional means.

Pay and conditions are irrelevant. I have no doubt that this industries management will stoop so low as to stand on street corners or putting ads in the classifieds offering people company paid ab-initio training 0 hours to RJ FO job to any schmuck before raising the pay for regional folks to a point where they would be able to live a life well above the average American. Raising pay certainly would attract more people to this profession but when it would be cheaper for management to offer ab-initio to anyone willing, they will jump at the opportunity. Look at all the fast food workers, grocery store clerks, walmart greeters and all the other low paying untrained positions that people are doing. They would love to jump on a pilot opportunity.

And the 1500 hour rule will never happen. The airlines won't allow it. They'll throw enough money at the problem to make it go away. Mark my words. There will be a so called cutout for certain exceptions to the 1500 hour rule making it null and void. Just like they are doing for the flight time and duty time regs. Apparently cargo and charter pilots are getting thrown under the bus. Money talks, safety and common decency in scheduling pilots walks I suppose.

 

[pilotyip]

The only pilot shortages that may arise for brief moments in time are at the regionals.

Don't forget we have regional pilots because the mainline guys did not want those little T-prop pilots on their seniority list. If far thinking pilots at the majors had said sure come board, sure you will start a dirt wages, but in 5 years you be making good money as a 73 F/O we would not have this problem. Look at Comair, they raised their costs to the mainline in order to pay the pilots, so flying get set someplace else to keep the wages at the mainline. This is not so much a management problem as it is a senior pilots protecting themselves at the expense of the junior pilot.

 

[NEDude]

A friend who is a DE recently attended an FAA conference for DE's. They said that currently training is at 15% of what it was at its peak in the late 1990s. Not down 15% from what it was, down TO 15% of what it was. The number of check rides he is giving is WAY down.

 

[jetwash]

A friend who is a DE recently attended an FAA conference for DE's. They said that currently training is at 15% of what it was at its peak in the late 1990s. Not down 15% from what it was, down TO 15% of what it was. The number of check rides he is giving is WAY down.

Is there anywhere those stats might be published?

 

[hopalong]

a friend who is a de recently attended an faa conference for de's. They said that currently training is at 15% of what it was at its peak in the late 1990s. Not down 15% from what it was, down to 15% of what it was. The number of check rides he is giving is way down.

wow!!!!

 

[pilotgolfer]

A friend who is a DE recently attended an FAA conference for DE's. They said that currently training is at 15% of what it was at its peak in the late 1990s. Not down 15% from what it was, down TO 15% of what it was. The number of check rides he is giving is WAY down.

So I wonder what the headcount at the FAA is down to?? I'd be interested to see the number of people employed at the FAA back in the peak days compared to today....I bet its up 50%.

 

[chris69]

From the military side, the numbers entering flight training today, as well as those still with a seat, have been greatly reduced. From the 2012 budget:

USN/USMC (numbers = input/output) from OP-5 1A2A and 3B2K

Undergrad Pilot Training: FY10, FY11, FY12

Strike/Jet: 229/238, 319/247, 241/211
Maritime/Prop: 123/127, 161/139, 161/146
E2/C2: 41/28, 58/44, 52/44
E6A: 9/8, 22/19, 21/19
Helicopter: 476/465, 542/456, 514/464
Tilt Rotor: 39/36, 48/40, 53/49

Basically, the USN/USMC (USCG) have bugeted to "wing" 211 strike/jet, 146 maritime/prop, 44 E2/C2, 19 E6A, 464 Helo and 49 V22 pilots. Most will be input from previous FY due to the time to train. These won't be able to leave until around the 10-11 year point. Some will have left flying, some will be the future leadership and will stay for a career and some will not be current. Even those with no desire or record to screen for command will stay to 20 due to O-4 pay, the bonus and retirement. The same is probably true for the AF.

USAF (not as easy to glean, from OP-14C-3 FY12 estimates)

T6 SUPT PH2, Fighter/Bomber, Tanker/Transport, Turboprop Helo

FY10
Input: 1185, 294, 654, 178, 59
Output: 1076, 286, 651, 173, 59
Attrition%: 9.2, 2.2, .5, 2.6, 0

FY11
1312, 361, 704, 178, 69
1191, 353, 700, 173, 69
9.2, 2.2, .5, 2.6, 0

FY12
1251, 342, 640, 87, 58
1120, 331, 630, 84, 58
10.5, 3.2, 1.6, 3.4, 0

Basically the USAF/USAFR/ANG have budgeted to "wing" 331 fighter/bomber, 651 tanker/transport, 87 turboprop and 59 helo pilots. No idea on retention expectations.

The point being (of all the above data) that once retirements kick in, the military will produce an ever shrinking pool of pilots and the strain will be borne predominately by regional and corporate flight departments. Which may be good for them as their current pilots become more senior and "expensive." But from the info in the public domain, assuming that 2012 isn't the end of the world, it should get better...

 

[pilotyip]

From the military side, the numbers entering flight training today, as well as those still with a seat, have been greatly reduced. From the 2012 budget:

Strike/Jet: 229/238, 319/247, 241/211
Maritime/Prop: 123/127, 161/139, 161/146
E2/C2: 41/28, 58/44, 52/44
E6A: 9/8, 22/19, 21/19
Helicopter: 476/465, 542/456, 514/464
Tilt Rotor: 39/36, 48/40, 53/49


The point being (of all the above data) that once retirements kick in, the military will produce an ever shrinking pool of pilots and the strain will be borne predominately by regional and corporate flight departments. Which may be good for them as their current pilots become more senior and "expensive." But from the info in the public domain, assuming that 2012 isn't the end of the world, it should get better...

interesting stuff, I notice that he majority of USN/USMC pilot will now go helo. Has the civilian aviation community accepted helo time as real flight time yet? BTW In the 1967 when I went through USN flight training, they trained 3600 pilots.

 

[ClubORD]

A friend who is a DE recently attended an FAA conference for DE's. They said that currently training is at 15% of what it was at its peak in the late 1990s. Not down 15% from what it was, down TO 15% of what it was. The number of check rides he is giving is WAY down.

Totally agree.

I own an aviation insurance agency based in Florida. Last year alone I had 4 flight schools that closed their doors due to lack of business and the economy; two of which have been in business for 20+ years.

I am starting to think there may be something to this "pilot shortage" prediction in the next 10-15 years.

 

[Ridgeback]

NEVER!???!!! What if we educated the up and coming pilots to command their righteous earnings. QUOTE]

So Your efforts to demand $40/hr instead of the 20/hr must have been successful considering your at a regional...You are an inspiration

 

[hopalong]

NEVER!???!!! What if we educated the up and coming pilots to command their righteous earnings. QUOTE]

So Your efforts to demand $40/hr instead of the 20/hr must have been successful considering your at a regional...You are an inspiration

I'm Not at a regional.... I, do however remember the days of flight instructing and what we once called commuters, pay crap. I speak at schools and let the potential wannnabe aviators know that it is no joy ride.(pay wise) If you start paying the regionals better, the majors will get more, and the domino effect can take place to level our deserved compensation.

BTW it's you're at a regional, not your. Dummy....

 

[linecheck]

These reports that we are reading set the stage for the single pilot airliner.

Pilot shortage problem solved.

 

[Two Feathers]

I'll go out on a limb and predict a MAJOR pilot shortage from today's numbers over the next 20 years. It will come shortly after shortages in food, fuel and potable water though, that's the only bummer...

 

[NuGuy]

Heyas,

I still have friends in the flight training business (really? I have friends?), and this is what they say:

Domestic student starts are way, way down. Those on a "career track" at non-career schools (ERAU, UND, FSI, etc) are practically non-existant. There is still a trickle of activity of folks doing their PPL, or IR, and some fairly good activity if you are a "botique" instructor that does type specific training, such as Cirrus or Beech initial or recurrent.

Despite that, finding CFIs is darn near impossible. This is the way it was explained to me:

Look at the hiring window from 1995-2001, and the one prior to that (1986-1989). LOTS of people being hired by LOTS of operators, with LOTS of turnover. Multiple majors would often pump 100/mo through their training pipelines.

Regionals/commuters, overall, were smaller, and you would think, less able to handle the turnover because the relative percentage of people leaving was high.

Despite this, the regionals/commuters still found all the people they needed with ESSENTIALLY ATP mins. Sure, it may have dipped at bit during peak months, but anything below 1000/100 was pretty darn rare, and 1500 and 200 was the typical norm, with the mature regionals getting much higher mins.

Still plenty of people lining up to do the dirty work for crap money. People either came out of the military, or followed the standard civilian career track in which a CFI was a part of.

Fast forward to 2006-08. Slight recovery, majors start to hire again, but numbers of outfits hiring and the overall numbes were MUCH lower than the previous booms. Regionals were much larger, and in threory, should have been better able to cope, because the overall percentage of turnover was far lower.

Yet despite this, regionals had to lower their minimums to wet commercial ticket levels to fill a comparatively lower number of seats...even at VERY mature outfits with decent (relatively) pay and work rules.

Another aspect of this was a far greater percentage of pilots skipped the CFI route. Why bother if you were going to drop right into the right seat of a Barbie Jet at 300 hours? Thus the complete lack of CFIs these days.

Why?

1) Kids are smart. The media and high school today have conditioned kids to go for the maximum result for minimum effort, and they can read teh intrawebz. They realize the risk/return for this career sucks unless you get really lucky.

2) Information is everywhere. You no longer have to subscribe to FAPA or AIR INC to get the information on what's what, and the information is no longer "sole source" or word of mouth, so you get a MUCH wider range of real world conditions.

3) It's really expensive. In 1990 dollars, you could go zero to hero for about $15k, all in, including room and board. If you apply inflation to that, it should run you about $25k today, but in reality, it's probably closer to $35-$40k, assuming you don't get scammed out of your money along the way.

4) Because kids these days need to see instant gratification, the 1,500 hour rule will probably deter a percentage of the every shrinking pool who do decide blow their hard earned cash. VERY, VERY few kids these days do anything for the "love of it"...everything has a price tag attached.

So here we are: No CFIs, Expensive airplanes, a change in flight/time duty time rules, the 1,500 hour rule.

But my prediction is that there will STILL be no pilot shortage, but there will remain, as always, a shortage of pilots willing to work for crap wages at the regionals or anywhere else.

If the regionals were to offer major like compensation packages, the "shortage" would solve itself, because there are a LOT of pilots sidelined because the job is no longer worth doing. But pay the going rate, and watch those classes fill up.

Cancelling flights because of lack of crews when you are paying them FAR BELOW market wages DOES NOT COUNT as a shortage, just a bad business plan.

When major airlines, who are paying their crews somewhat appropriate compensation (I said somewhat, not optimum), start cancelling flights because their classes go unfilled, then yea, that's a shortage.

But you won't see that.

Nu

 

[atpcliff]

And the 1500 hour rule will never happen. The airlines won't allow it. They'll throw enough money at the problem to make it go away. Mark my words. There will be a so called cutout for certain exceptions to the 1500 hour rule making it null and void. Just like they are doing for the flight time and duty time regs. Apparently cargo and charter pilots are getting thrown under the bus. Money talks, safety and common decency in scheduling pilots walks I suppose.

The ATP requirement is LAW, not a rule and there's nothing the faa can do about it. The airlines already tried and failed to influence the ATP law.

The Flight/Rest/Duty rules are intact. The airlines already tried to change them and failed. And, if the FAA tries too mess with them too much, Congress will simply make a law changing them to what Congress wants. The law says the Flight/Duty/Rest goes into effect before 1 Aug.

 

[pilotyip]

The law says the Flight/Duty/Rest goes into effect before 1 Aug.

Yes with a two year time frame to implement, just like 135 scheduled commuter converting to 121 back in 1996

 

[charlie2]

I think NuGuy says there will never be a pilot shortage just a shortage of pilots pilots willing to work for crappy pay and benies...I agree.

 

[FLYLOW22]

Shortage? She said it was a good size.

 

[pipejockey]

I'm almost sure there will be some loophole that corporate america, in this case the airline industry, will create to allow these flight schools that promise the world but deliver a pile of sh*t, to circumvent the 1500 ATP requirement and allow 800 hour or less kids to continue flooding the market in order to keep cockpits staffed with a body. After all, what corporate america wants, corporate america gets!

For instance, the Obama appointed NMB decided to scrap the current union drive process in which you need a majority of WORKERS to vote yes for a union, not a majority of VOTES. But that wasn't what corporate america wanted so what do they sneak in the FAA reauthorization bill? You guessed it, back to the old archaic way in which if out of a 1,000 employee group, 400 vote FOR a union, and 300 vote AGAINST a union and 300 are so complacent and worthless that they don't vote at all, who wins? Yes, the 300 who voted AGAINST even though 400 voted FOR. If this is not something from the twilight zone, I don't know what is. And how anybody can support this process is absolutely unbelievable.