Pilot shortage?????

[hopalong]

hmmmmmmm....................

 

[Dizel8]

Try to take a slightly longer view, the current economic environment will hopefully change for the better.

Certainly, the change of the retirement age from 60 to 65 has had a profound short term effect, that coupled with retrenchments in the industry has, at least for a while, give us a surplus of pilots.

Obviously one could crunch the numbers, but it would require way more info than is readily available. One would need to know, how many of the furloughed are at other carriers, how large are the retirements at all carriers, how many will not return to aviation.

Right now, there may be a surplus, but how about in two to three years, when age 65 hits and retirements starts again. I searched for the post that was here a while back, it showed the retirement numbers at some of the majors. The numbers starts out small and rapidly accelerates.

 

[xjhawk]

So if retirements at American were 200-300 and only half came back it will be three years before they hire and that is not including the eagle pilots they must take. I think united is a bit better from what one of their pilots told me. The guy laughed and said they will have 1 pilot retire every 18 hours. He also said that a thousand of their 1400 are on military leave (not sure how accurate the guy was) so they should be hiring by the end of the year. As for a pilot shortage, maybe at the regional level given the lack of pilots in training right now. But at the major level there are more than likely over 10,000 pilots willing to apply for those jobs opening up and that is not a shortage. a shortage at the regional level will mean worse schedules and QOL for those stuck at the regionals as their company tries to cover their commitments.

 

[Dizel8]

Don't think I specified that there would only be a shortage at AA or the major carriers. Indeed, the commuters will see it as well, if not more, as you said, people will seek to move up the ladder.

I hope the predictions are true, it may well make the boat rise for all of us.

 

[crashmbern]

Well I think you will see a shortage at the regionals. Majors will always have enough people that would leave a regional in a heart beat. I think you will see a regional shortage and hopefully that means that the majors would have to take over flying that the regionals cannot provide due to lack of pilots.

 

[pilotyip]

All part of the 2012 hiring boom, by 2014 the college degree will no longer define who gets hired.

 

[jetracer5]

stop the hype- AA will take a while to recall as not all of them went to jetblue and virgin. Rumor is the new united will hire by the end of the year but come on we are in an economic slow down, even delta has rumors that they hired too many and will not hire the rest of the year. Our only hope is the regionals do not get more (and bigger) planes. I mean what the heck! transstates has orders for that japanese regional jet (how many seats? 100?)

I think Delta is about to start hiring. Our company had a meeting with them a few weeks ago about there hiring so we can plan on our attrition.

 

[Jetjockey]

Two upcoming events will have to drive new hiring: Age 65 retirements, rest rule changes.

 

[ualdriver]

Again, I doubt there is a pilot shortage nor will there be in the near future. A few years ago there was a shortage of nurses- a REAL shortage of nurses. How did that shortage manifest itself? Did hospitals cut nursing salaries to $20,000 per year in order to attract nurses to their hospital? Nope. They paid REAL salaries with REAL signing bonuses and made REAL efforts to attract people to the profession.

Now, what is going on in the airline pilot biz...Some regional airline pilots make poverty wages. Thousands of airline pilots are unemployed or UNDERemployed. Many have left the profession to pursue other careers. When will a no-crap pilot shortage actually exist? When airlines are compelled to pay their professional pilots wages that are commensurate with other professionals. When airline management has to stop beating its pilot about the head and shoulders and ruling through intimidation. When "new" upstart airlines like Virgin America2 or Skybus2 can't hire pilots at a fraction of the going rate and use low pilot wages as a competitive advantage. When morons like Hulas don't have the ability to drag out contract negotiations for years because if they do, they won't be able to staff their airlines with pilots. When airlines don't go from hiring to furloughs at the flip of a switch. And this has to happen not for just a few months as we have seen in past boomlets, but for long periods of time, perhaps years.

Retirements are starting up again? Big deal. We have had decades of retirements pre 2007. Was there a "pilot shortage" then? Nope.

Someone send me a PM when the above happens. Until then, there is not a pilot shortage. Will there be one in the future? Who knows. There is no way to predict the future, and I am not sure that as a young person or a career changer I would want to make a mid to high 5 figure bet on that proposition.

 

[n89l]

The west side of Us Airways still has aprox 60 out on furlough. The east has recalled all pilots.

 

[get2flyin]

Two upcoming events will have to drive new hiring: Age 65 retirements, rest rule changes.

Don't worry, I'm sure the movement to change the retirement age to 70 is well underway and don't try to stop it because that would make you a greedy punk. (Rolling eyes)

 

[xjhawk]

US Airways....? Never, I would not want to be making regional FO pay at a major. That needs to be fixed before I touch that place with someone elses........

 

[Peardc10]

Pilot shortage according to Aviation Week

Aviationweek.com January 24/31 2011

"Pilot shortage" is a threat that has waxed and waned over the last decade, but which has yet to become a reality-except for some unfortunate airlines in high-growth markets where demand already outpaces supply.
Raising the retirement age for pilots and cutting fleet capacity during the economic downturn postponed the problem for most airlines, but Boeing and others are warning the day of reckoning is fast approaching.
With the five-year reprieve gained by raising the retirement age to 65 drawing to a close, and capacity growth returning, the pilot-shortage threat level is again being raised-even in the U.S., where hundreds of furloughed flight crew remain to be recalled.
Based on its outlook for global aircraft deliveries, Boeing sees fleet growth and pilot retirements almost doubling the demand for pilots over the next 20 years. Total demand for more than 466,000 pilots is forecast for 2010-2029-an average of 23,300 new pilots a year.
The largest growth will be in the Asia-Pacific region, with a requirement for 180,600 pilots-70,600 of those in China. There is already a growing shortage of pilots in Asia-and in the Middle East, where Boeing forecasts a need for 32,700 pilots in the next 20 years.
Demand in North America and Europe will be unprecedented by recent history standards, with Boeing predicting a need for nearly 97,400 and 94,800 pilots, respectively, in markets that seem ill-prepared to respond.
In the U.S. 37,000 pilots will be needed over the next 10 years, rising to 56,000 over the next 14 years, just to replace retirements and not accounting for any fleet expansion. But new-pilot starts and down by 50-80% in the U.S., reaching a 10 year low in 2010, so the pipe-line is not being replenished let alone expanded.
Reasons include unattractive pay and conditions at the regional airlines, which have traditionally acted as pilot farms for the majors. And those individuals who still want to be pilots now face difficulties obtaining bank financing for training.
Congressional legislation requiring a minimum 1,500 hr. experience, up from 250 hr., will only exacerbate the problem as it will take new pilots 3-4 years, rather than a year, to reach the new target by traditional means.

 

[cynic]

Flying airplanes is pretty darn easy and it's a fun job! The ONLY barrier to entry is the ability to pay for flight training.

Unless someone wants to do something like require a Master's degree to obtain an ATP (not that I think it's necessary so settle down pilotyip) ; It is highly unlikely that pay rates will change. When a job is easy and fun and a whole lot of people can do it, it doesn't pay well. Check starting salaries for resort scuba instructors for a comparison

 

[bri5150]

Flying airplanes is pretty darn easy and it's a fun job! The ONLY barrier to entry is the ability to pay for flight training.

Unless someone wants to do something like require a Master's degree to obtain an ATP (not that I think it's necessary so settle down pilotyip) ; It is highly unlikely that pay rates will change. When a job is easy and fun and a whole lot of people can do it, it doesn't pay well. Check starting salaries for resort scuba instructors for a comparison

Listen to Cynic. He knows what he is talking about because he models molecular biophysics on a big super computer. A job that couldn't possibly be outsourced to the lowest bidder. *sarcasm*

 

[Gillegan]

It's been a pretty miserable 15 years for our profession so it's no wonder that folks are sceptical of the numbers. The same demographics that have made for stagnating career progression in the U.S. - a large number of pilots born in the late 40's and early 50's will also fuel a hiring boom. Add to that the growth in Asia (the Chinese are starting to pay) and the fact that no one is going into the profession (because of these miserable 15 years) and there will be jobs. I've read the Boeing report and the numbers don't lie. There will be some big changes in our profession over the next 15 years - don't ask me what, I'm as curious as you. There have been shortages before (mid 1960's) and they seem to come all at once.

 

[hopalong]

It's been a pretty miserable 15 years for our profession so it's no wonder that folks are sceptical of the numbers. The same demographics that have made for stagnating career progression in the U.S. - a large number of pilots born in the late 40's and early 50's will also fuel a hiring boom. Add to that the growth in Asia (the Chinese are starting to pay) and the fact that no one is going into the profession (because of these miserable 15 years) and there will be jobs. I've read the Boeing report and the numbers don't lie. There will be some big changes in our profession over the next 15 years - don't ask me what, I'm as curious as you. There have been shortages before (mid 1960's) and they seem to come all at once.

Great post!

 

[Gillegan]

There has been growth in the last 20 years but it has largely been at the regionals - for the aforementioned slave wages. I would expect a concerted effort to address the numbers while minimizing the pay. Look for modest improvements in regional pay and a big effort to attack scope along with creative ways to get around the training (MPL?). Supply and demand should mean an improvement in pay but ironically, the inflexibility of the unions may actually slow down the pay increases as the pilots, stung by the stagnation of the last 15-20 years opt for stability and long term contracts over rolling the dice. And don't forget, the Railway Labor Act is geared to maintain the status quo.

 

[Jetjockey]

Flying airplanes is pretty darn easy and it's a fun job! The ONLY barrier to entry is the ability to pay for flight training.

Unless someone wants to do something like require a Master's degree to obtain an ATP (not that I think it's necessary so settle down pilotyip) ; It is highly unlikely that pay rates will change. When a job is easy and fun and a whole lot of people can do it, it doesn't pay well. Check starting salaries for resort scuba instructors for a comparison

Mr. Mensa himself has spoken. All hail the high and mighty computer geek! Don't you have some term papers to correct?

 

[27 driver]

And don't forget, the Railway Labor Act is geared to maintain the status quo.[/QUOTE]

You nailed it. Until we get out from under the RLA there will be minuscule changes and minor improvements in pay at the cost of scope or QOL. Management has the upper hand in our negotiations and they know it. Until we are legally able to or have the cojones to withhold our services things won't change. As long as I have been around there has always been a steady stream of people willing to work for poverty wages to build time and move on. IMHO that will not change. We are our own worst enemy. I truly hope there is a looming shortage but they have been predicting this as long as I can remember and it hasn't happened. Time will tell.