Pilot shortage?????

[hopalong]

Insights? I am baffled at all the conflicting reports. Some say it is inevitable w/ 2012 around the corner. Supposed experts claim that there will be approx. 3-10% of the baby boomers retiring annually from 2012-2017. Increasing population may also bring new demands.
However, others claim that with so many pilots on the street and the consolidation of airlines that pilot shortage is out of the question. Please give your opinions.... Thank you in advance...

 

[Flyby1206]

A pilot shortage is just like the "Free Beer Tomorrow" sign... always right around the corner, but never here!

 

[hopalong]

A pilot shortage is just like the "Free Beer Tomorrow" sign... always right around the corner, but never here!

LOL!!! Good one. I knew it was too good to be true... However, I must admit that whenever I checked airlinepilotcentral.com last year, it seemed everyone was furloughing. This year seems to be just the opposite w/ most carriers.

 

[J.Otto]

well, there seems to be a lack of new comm certifications in the last yr or two. Regionals seem to always need pilots and this may make jobs more available to low time pilots, but competition will always be there for the coveted boeing/AB jobs. shortage for the good jobs is not likely. There will always be too many pilots who will apply at that level.

 

[Lake Alice]

well, there seems to be a lack of new comm certifications in the last yr or two. Regionals seem to always need pilots and this may make jobs more available to low time pilots, but competition will always be there for the coveted boeing/AB jobs. shortage for the good jobs is not likely. There will always be too many pilots who will apply at that level.

Exactly. As this career continues to spiral downward less new pilots are coming up through the ranks. The regional will suffer long before any major has a difficult time hiring.

 

[hopalong]

Exactly. As this career continues to spiral downward less new pilots are coming up through the ranks. The regional will suffer long before any major has a difficult time hiring.

Of course, most regional pilots will do whatever it takes to make it to a major or legacy.
However, How can we fix the pay rate of the regionals???? My intentions are genuine and want to look for solutions for our brothers and sisters in this tight knit community. Any suggestions????

 

[J.Otto]

Of course, most regional pilots will do whatever it takes to make it to a major or legacy.
However, How can we fix the pay rate of the regionals???? My intentions are genuine and want to look for solutions for our brothers and sisters in this tight knit community. Any suggestions????

You CANT fix the pay scale at the regionals. Its never going to happen. The whole commuter model is based on cheap labor.

Regionals serve a purpose for both mainline and the aspiring pilot. Cheap lift for hubs and a foot in the door for the hopeful low time pilot who rolls the dice. Its a stepping stone job. They will never pay well.

 

[hopalong]

You CANT fix the pay scale at the regionals. Its never going to happen. The whole commuter model is based on cheap labor.

Regionals serve a purpose for both mainline and the aspiring pilot. Cheap lift for hubs and a foot in the door for the hopeful low time pilot who rolls the dice. Its a stepping stone job. They will never pay well.

NEVER!???!!! What if we educated the up and coming pilots to command their righteous earnings. To me, being paid equivalent to a carpet cleaner is not a leveling playing ground. With all due respect to laborers, most pilots have spent money on a 4yr. degree plus flight school and have accumulated student loans only to qualify for food stamps. We CAN do something and SHOULD. I lecture at high schools and warn the bright and eager shiny jet syndrome scholars of their futures. May be that's not enough. I love AVIATION and want to encourage our youth. I am asking all of you to share your thoughts and wisdom in this matter. If we can start from the bottom, we can recreate a well respected aviation community that was lost in our generation.... Any thoughts????

 

[Dizel8]

How many pilots are actually on the street? True, they may be furloughed from one carrier, but may well be employed at another. Plus, you have some who may never return to flying, having found "real' jobs!

According to the numbers from the aircraft manufacturers, there will be large need for pilots in the next ten years, Boeing being one of them.

Flighschool starts are down, military producing less, age 65 surplus expiring, worldwide need for aviators, so yes, I can see a pilot shortage coming. Just take a look at the retirement numbers for US carriers, I think a company like AA will see 50% retirements in the next 10 years, FedEx looking at big numbers as well.

The contract market in some places is heating up, KAL is offering higher wages and will put 320 pilots into the 330 as Direct Entry Captains.

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/pilot_technician_forecast.html

 

[hopalong]

How many pilots are actually on the street? True, they may be furloughed from one carrier, but may well be employed at another. Plus, you have some who may never return to flying, having found "real' jobs!

According to the numbers from the aircraft manufacturers, there will be large need for pilots in the next ten years, Boeing being one of them.

Flighschool starts are down, military producing less, age 65 surplus expiring, worldwide need for aviators, so yes, I can see a pilot shortage coming. Just take a look at the retirement numbers for US carriers, I think a company like AA will see 50% retirements in the next 10 years, FedEx looking at big numbers as well.

Dizel8,
I admire your optimism and appreciate your passion.
Would you do me a big favor? Would you mind going on airlinepilotcentral.com and count how many furloughs there are in comparison to hiring? Please include everything from the fractional, regionals, majors, legacy, etc... That would help us all get a better view of our prospects and future. If you don't have time, I totally understand and will find some time to get around to the calculations.

 

[Dizel8]

Hopalong,

Did you actually read what I wrote? I am thinking no! Did you click on the link and read what the Boeing analysis said?

Here it is again:

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/pilot_technician_forecast.html

AA does have pilots on furlough, just an example, but how many of those will return, how many of those are working at other carriers? My little company has quite a few, are they going to go back?

Somewhere on here are the retirement numbers for several US air carriers, I believe AA is looking at something like 600+ in one year alone.

Yes, with the global expansion of air travel, coupled with what I have already mentioned, I believe there will be a severe shortage of qualified aviators.

Oh, I almost forgot, the new requirement of having an ATP to fly for a 121 air carrier!

 

[hopalong]

Hopalong,

Did you actually read what I wrote? I am thinking no!

AA does have pilots on furlough, just an example, but how many of those will return, how many of those are working at other carriers? My little company has quite a few, are they going to go back?

Somewhere on here are the retirement numbers for several US air carriers, I believe AA is looking at something like 600+ in one year alone.

Yes, with the global expansion of air travel, coupled with what I have already mentioned, I believe there will be a severe shortage of qualified aviators.

Oh, I almost forgot, the new requirement of having an ATP to fly for a 121 air carrier!

Settle down now... Trust me when I say that I agree that there will be an expansion. I just wanted you to prove it to the "NAY SAYERS" that continue to believe that the sky is falling. There is nothing wrong with optimism; however lack of proof without true figures and solid numbers may be mistaken for false hope. We, as pilots like statistics and accurate figures from our "OWN." (ex. airlinepilotcental.com) I like you dizel8; now do me the honor and calculate the figures?)

 

[hopalong]

What I would love to see is the following:
A. All Legacy airlines and how many they are furlouging or hiring.
B. All Major airlines and how many they are furlouging or hiring
C. All Regionals,etc...
D. All Fractionals, etc....
E. All Cargo, etc...
And so on and so on... This will give us all a bigger picture and thus far, I have concluded that; yes there will be a shortage. We are in need of a mathematician.....

 

[Dizel8]

You go right ahead Hopalong, I got other stuff to worry about, like kids running around.

Think about this: A pilot get furloughed from AA, goes to work for NetJets, gets furloughed from there and is now employed at jetblue! He would show up as being furloughed from two carriers, adding to the overall numbers, but is actually employed at a third carrier.

How does one figure out those numbers, I suppose you could call him!

Supposedly all furloughs have been recalled to AAA, but as posted here, 1 in 8 took a recall, hence they are hiring of the street.

Clearly you got the time and the inclination to crunch these numbers, I reallly don't

Knock yourself out, let us know what you come up with?

 

[hopalong]

You go right ahead Hopalong, I got other stuff to worry about, like kids running around.

Clearly you got the time and the inclination to do this, I reallly don't

Knock yourself out, let us know what you come up with?

Alrighty then... Let me start w/ Legacy

Alaska: RECALLING THE 43 FURLOUGH
American:1890: Furlough, however to annouce 250 for recall in Oct.
Continental: 4749 pilots and 16 furloughs
Delta: 12,300 pilots and still hiring
Hawaiian:445 total
United:7,733 pilots, yet 1437 furloughed
US Airways: 5,137 pilots ( all furlouhees recalled)

 

[Dizel8]

Alrighty then...

Like the kids say nowadays, whatever!

You crunch the numbers and get back to us!

 

[hopalong]

WTF Dizel8? Are you my kid???? HAHA Sounds like it ya lazy ********************er!!!! Just teasing.....

 

[Dizel8]

Alrighty then... Let me start w/ Legacy

Alaska: RECALLING THE 43 FURLOUGH
American:1890: Furlough, however to annouce 250 for recall in Oct.
Continental: 4749 pilots and 16 furloughs
Delta: 12,300 pilots and still hiring
Hawaiian:445 total
United:7,733 pilots, yet 1437 furloughed
US Airways: 5,137 pilots ( all furlouhees recalled)

Okay, now you just need to look at the retirement numbers, in addition, you need to figure out how many of the furloughs are returning, they may be working for other carriers and wil not take a recall.

SWA supposedly is hiring, as is Virgin, jetblue, AAA...and that is just of the top of my head, oh, don't forget all the foreign carriers hiring, Emirates, Qatar, Etihad.....

 

[hopalong]

Okay, now you just need to look at the retirement numbers, in addition, you need to figure out how many of the furloughs are returning, they may be working for other carriers and wil not take a recall.

SWA supposedly is hiring, as is Virgin, jetblue, AAA..........

Work with me Diezel and lets help break down these numbers to sensibiliy....

 

[xjhawk]

stop the hype- AA will take a while to recall as not all of them went to jetblue and virgin. Rumor is the new united will hire by the end of the year but come on we are in an economic slow down, even delta has rumors that they hired too many and will not hire the rest of the year. Our only hope is the regionals do not get more (and bigger) planes. I mean what the heck! transstates has orders for that japanese regional jet (how many seats? 100?)

 

[hopalong]

hmmmmmmm....................

 

[Dizel8]

Try to take a slightly longer view, the current economic environment will hopefully change for the better.

Certainly, the change of the retirement age from 60 to 65 has had a profound short term effect, that coupled with retrenchments in the industry has, at least for a while, give us a surplus of pilots.

Obviously one could crunch the numbers, but it would require way more info than is readily available. One would need to know, how many of the furloughed are at other carriers, how large are the retirements at all carriers, how many will not return to aviation.

Right now, there may be a surplus, but how about in two to three years, when age 65 hits and retirements starts again. I searched for the post that was here a while back, it showed the retirement numbers at some of the majors. The numbers starts out small and rapidly accelerates.

 

[xjhawk]

So if retirements at American were 200-300 and only half came back it will be three years before they hire and that is not including the eagle pilots they must take. I think united is a bit better from what one of their pilots told me. The guy laughed and said they will have 1 pilot retire every 18 hours. He also said that a thousand of their 1400 are on military leave (not sure how accurate the guy was) so they should be hiring by the end of the year. As for a pilot shortage, maybe at the regional level given the lack of pilots in training right now. But at the major level there are more than likely over 10,000 pilots willing to apply for those jobs opening up and that is not a shortage. a shortage at the regional level will mean worse schedules and QOL for those stuck at the regionals as their company tries to cover their commitments.

 

[Dizel8]

Don't think I specified that there would only be a shortage at AA or the major carriers. Indeed, the commuters will see it as well, if not more, as you said, people will seek to move up the ladder.

I hope the predictions are true, it may well make the boat rise for all of us.

 

[crashmbern]

Well I think you will see a shortage at the regionals. Majors will always have enough people that would leave a regional in a heart beat. I think you will see a regional shortage and hopefully that means that the majors would have to take over flying that the regionals cannot provide due to lack of pilots.

 

[pilotyip]

All part of the 2012 hiring boom, by 2014 the college degree will no longer define who gets hired.

 

[jetracer5]

stop the hype- AA will take a while to recall as not all of them went to jetblue and virgin. Rumor is the new united will hire by the end of the year but come on we are in an economic slow down, even delta has rumors that they hired too many and will not hire the rest of the year. Our only hope is the regionals do not get more (and bigger) planes. I mean what the heck! transstates has orders for that japanese regional jet (how many seats? 100?)

I think Delta is about to start hiring. Our company had a meeting with them a few weeks ago about there hiring so we can plan on our attrition.

 

[Jetjockey]

Two upcoming events will have to drive new hiring: Age 65 retirements, rest rule changes.

 

[ualdriver]

Again, I doubt there is a pilot shortage nor will there be in the near future. A few years ago there was a shortage of nurses- a REAL shortage of nurses. How did that shortage manifest itself? Did hospitals cut nursing salaries to $20,000 per year in order to attract nurses to their hospital? Nope. They paid REAL salaries with REAL signing bonuses and made REAL efforts to attract people to the profession.

Now, what is going on in the airline pilot biz...Some regional airline pilots make poverty wages. Thousands of airline pilots are unemployed or UNDERemployed. Many have left the profession to pursue other careers. When will a no-crap pilot shortage actually exist? When airlines are compelled to pay their professional pilots wages that are commensurate with other professionals. When airline management has to stop beating its pilot about the head and shoulders and ruling through intimidation. When "new" upstart airlines like Virgin America2 or Skybus2 can't hire pilots at a fraction of the going rate and use low pilot wages as a competitive advantage. When morons like Hulas don't have the ability to drag out contract negotiations for years because if they do, they won't be able to staff their airlines with pilots. When airlines don't go from hiring to furloughs at the flip of a switch. And this has to happen not for just a few months as we have seen in past boomlets, but for long periods of time, perhaps years.

Retirements are starting up again? Big deal. We have had decades of retirements pre 2007. Was there a "pilot shortage" then? Nope.

Someone send me a PM when the above happens. Until then, there is not a pilot shortage. Will there be one in the future? Who knows. There is no way to predict the future, and I am not sure that as a young person or a career changer I would want to make a mid to high 5 figure bet on that proposition.

 

[n89l]

The west side of Us Airways still has aprox 60 out on furlough. The east has recalled all pilots.