Pilot shortage?????

[hopalong]

Insights? I am baffled at all the conflicting reports. Some say it is inevitable w/ 2012 around the corner. Supposed experts claim that there will be approx. 3-10% of the baby boomers retiring annually from 2012-2017. Increasing population may also bring new demands.
However, others claim that with so many pilots on the street and the consolidation of airlines that pilot shortage is out of the question. Please give your opinions.... Thank you in advance...

 

[Flyby1206]

A pilot shortage is just like the "Free Beer Tomorrow" sign... always right around the corner, but never here!

 

[hopalong]

A pilot shortage is just like the "Free Beer Tomorrow" sign... always right around the corner, but never here!

LOL!!! Good one. I knew it was too good to be true... However, I must admit that whenever I checked airlinepilotcentral.com last year, it seemed everyone was furloughing. This year seems to be just the opposite w/ most carriers.

 

[J.Otto]

well, there seems to be a lack of new comm certifications in the last yr or two. Regionals seem to always need pilots and this may make jobs more available to low time pilots, but competition will always be there for the coveted boeing/AB jobs. shortage for the good jobs is not likely. There will always be too many pilots who will apply at that level.

 

[Lake Alice]

well, there seems to be a lack of new comm certifications in the last yr or two. Regionals seem to always need pilots and this may make jobs more available to low time pilots, but competition will always be there for the coveted boeing/AB jobs. shortage for the good jobs is not likely. There will always be too many pilots who will apply at that level.

Exactly. As this career continues to spiral downward less new pilots are coming up through the ranks. The regional will suffer long before any major has a difficult time hiring.

 

[hopalong]

Exactly. As this career continues to spiral downward less new pilots are coming up through the ranks. The regional will suffer long before any major has a difficult time hiring.

Of course, most regional pilots will do whatever it takes to make it to a major or legacy.
However, How can we fix the pay rate of the regionals???? My intentions are genuine and want to look for solutions for our brothers and sisters in this tight knit community. Any suggestions????

 

[J.Otto]

Of course, most regional pilots will do whatever it takes to make it to a major or legacy.
However, How can we fix the pay rate of the regionals???? My intentions are genuine and want to look for solutions for our brothers and sisters in this tight knit community. Any suggestions????

You CANT fix the pay scale at the regionals. Its never going to happen. The whole commuter model is based on cheap labor.

Regionals serve a purpose for both mainline and the aspiring pilot. Cheap lift for hubs and a foot in the door for the hopeful low time pilot who rolls the dice. Its a stepping stone job. They will never pay well.

 

[hopalong]

You CANT fix the pay scale at the regionals. Its never going to happen. The whole commuter model is based on cheap labor.

Regionals serve a purpose for both mainline and the aspiring pilot. Cheap lift for hubs and a foot in the door for the hopeful low time pilot who rolls the dice. Its a stepping stone job. They will never pay well.

NEVER!???!!! What if we educated the up and coming pilots to command their righteous earnings. To me, being paid equivalent to a carpet cleaner is not a leveling playing ground. With all due respect to laborers, most pilots have spent money on a 4yr. degree plus flight school and have accumulated student loans only to qualify for food stamps. We CAN do something and SHOULD. I lecture at high schools and warn the bright and eager shiny jet syndrome scholars of their futures. May be that's not enough. I love AVIATION and want to encourage our youth. I am asking all of you to share your thoughts and wisdom in this matter. If we can start from the bottom, we can recreate a well respected aviation community that was lost in our generation.... Any thoughts????

 

[Dizel8]

How many pilots are actually on the street? True, they may be furloughed from one carrier, but may well be employed at another. Plus, you have some who may never return to flying, having found "real' jobs!

According to the numbers from the aircraft manufacturers, there will be large need for pilots in the next ten years, Boeing being one of them.

Flighschool starts are down, military producing less, age 65 surplus expiring, worldwide need for aviators, so yes, I can see a pilot shortage coming. Just take a look at the retirement numbers for US carriers, I think a company like AA will see 50% retirements in the next 10 years, FedEx looking at big numbers as well.

The contract market in some places is heating up, KAL is offering higher wages and will put 320 pilots into the 330 as Direct Entry Captains.

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo/pilot_technician_forecast.html

 

[hopalong]

How many pilots are actually on the street? True, they may be furloughed from one carrier, but may well be employed at another. Plus, you have some who may never return to flying, having found "real' jobs!

According to the numbers from the aircraft manufacturers, there will be large need for pilots in the next ten years, Boeing being one of them.

Flighschool starts are down, military producing less, age 65 surplus expiring, worldwide need for aviators, so yes, I can see a pilot shortage coming. Just take a look at the retirement numbers for US carriers, I think a company like AA will see 50% retirements in the next 10 years, FedEx looking at big numbers as well.

Dizel8,
I admire your optimism and appreciate your passion.
Would you do me a big favor? Would you mind going on airlinepilotcentral.com and count how many furloughs there are in comparison to hiring? Please include everything from the fractional, regionals, majors, legacy, etc... That would help us all get a better view of our prospects and future. If you don't have time, I totally understand and will find some time to get around to the calculations.