Pilot shortage?????

[Dizel8]

Alrighty then...

Like the kids say nowadays, whatever!

You crunch the numbers and get back to us!

 

[hopalong]

WTF Dizel8? Are you my kid???? HAHA Sounds like it ya lazy ********************er!!!! Just teasing.....

 

[Dizel8]

Alrighty then... Let me start w/ Legacy

Alaska: RECALLING THE 43 FURLOUGH
American:1890: Furlough, however to annouce 250 for recall in Oct.
Continental: 4749 pilots and 16 furloughs
Delta: 12,300 pilots and still hiring
Hawaiian:445 total
United:7,733 pilots, yet 1437 furloughed
US Airways: 5,137 pilots ( all furlouhees recalled)

Okay, now you just need to look at the retirement numbers, in addition, you need to figure out how many of the furloughs are returning, they may be working for other carriers and wil not take a recall.

SWA supposedly is hiring, as is Virgin, jetblue, AAA...and that is just of the top of my head, oh, don't forget all the foreign carriers hiring, Emirates, Qatar, Etihad.....

 

[hopalong]

Okay, now you just need to look at the retirement numbers, in addition, you need to figure out how many of the furloughs are returning, they may be working for other carriers and wil not take a recall.

SWA supposedly is hiring, as is Virgin, jetblue, AAA..........

Work with me Diezel and lets help break down these numbers to sensibiliy....

 

[xjhawk]

stop the hype- AA will take a while to recall as not all of them went to jetblue and virgin. Rumor is the new united will hire by the end of the year but come on we are in an economic slow down, even delta has rumors that they hired too many and will not hire the rest of the year. Our only hope is the regionals do not get more (and bigger) planes. I mean what the heck! transstates has orders for that japanese regional jet (how many seats? 100?)

 

[hopalong]

hmmmmmmm....................

 

[Dizel8]

Try to take a slightly longer view, the current economic environment will hopefully change for the better.

Certainly, the change of the retirement age from 60 to 65 has had a profound short term effect, that coupled with retrenchments in the industry has, at least for a while, give us a surplus of pilots.

Obviously one could crunch the numbers, but it would require way more info than is readily available. One would need to know, how many of the furloughed are at other carriers, how large are the retirements at all carriers, how many will not return to aviation.

Right now, there may be a surplus, but how about in two to three years, when age 65 hits and retirements starts again. I searched for the post that was here a while back, it showed the retirement numbers at some of the majors. The numbers starts out small and rapidly accelerates.

 

[xjhawk]

So if retirements at American were 200-300 and only half came back it will be three years before they hire and that is not including the eagle pilots they must take. I think united is a bit better from what one of their pilots told me. The guy laughed and said they will have 1 pilot retire every 18 hours. He also said that a thousand of their 1400 are on military leave (not sure how accurate the guy was) so they should be hiring by the end of the year. As for a pilot shortage, maybe at the regional level given the lack of pilots in training right now. But at the major level there are more than likely over 10,000 pilots willing to apply for those jobs opening up and that is not a shortage. a shortage at the regional level will mean worse schedules and QOL for those stuck at the regionals as their company tries to cover their commitments.

 

[Dizel8]

Don't think I specified that there would only be a shortage at AA or the major carriers. Indeed, the commuters will see it as well, if not more, as you said, people will seek to move up the ladder.

I hope the predictions are true, it may well make the boat rise for all of us.

 

[crashmbern]

Well I think you will see a shortage at the regionals. Majors will always have enough people that would leave a regional in a heart beat. I think you will see a regional shortage and hopefully that means that the majors would have to take over flying that the regionals cannot provide due to lack of pilots.

 

[pilotyip]

All part of the 2012 hiring boom, by 2014 the college degree will no longer define who gets hired.

 

[jetracer5]

stop the hype- AA will take a while to recall as not all of them went to jetblue and virgin. Rumor is the new united will hire by the end of the year but come on we are in an economic slow down, even delta has rumors that they hired too many and will not hire the rest of the year. Our only hope is the regionals do not get more (and bigger) planes. I mean what the heck! transstates has orders for that japanese regional jet (how many seats? 100?)

I think Delta is about to start hiring. Our company had a meeting with them a few weeks ago about there hiring so we can plan on our attrition.

 

[Jetjockey]

Two upcoming events will have to drive new hiring: Age 65 retirements, rest rule changes.

 

[ualdriver]

Again, I doubt there is a pilot shortage nor will there be in the near future. A few years ago there was a shortage of nurses- a REAL shortage of nurses. How did that shortage manifest itself? Did hospitals cut nursing salaries to $20,000 per year in order to attract nurses to their hospital? Nope. They paid REAL salaries with REAL signing bonuses and made REAL efforts to attract people to the profession.

Now, what is going on in the airline pilot biz...Some regional airline pilots make poverty wages. Thousands of airline pilots are unemployed or UNDERemployed. Many have left the profession to pursue other careers. When will a no-crap pilot shortage actually exist? When airlines are compelled to pay their professional pilots wages that are commensurate with other professionals. When airline management has to stop beating its pilot about the head and shoulders and ruling through intimidation. When "new" upstart airlines like Virgin America2 or Skybus2 can't hire pilots at a fraction of the going rate and use low pilot wages as a competitive advantage. When morons like Hulas don't have the ability to drag out contract negotiations for years because if they do, they won't be able to staff their airlines with pilots. When airlines don't go from hiring to furloughs at the flip of a switch. And this has to happen not for just a few months as we have seen in past boomlets, but for long periods of time, perhaps years.

Retirements are starting up again? Big deal. We have had decades of retirements pre 2007. Was there a "pilot shortage" then? Nope.

Someone send me a PM when the above happens. Until then, there is not a pilot shortage. Will there be one in the future? Who knows. There is no way to predict the future, and I am not sure that as a young person or a career changer I would want to make a mid to high 5 figure bet on that proposition.

 

[n89l]

The west side of Us Airways still has aprox 60 out on furlough. The east has recalled all pilots.