Heyas,
Just so we're clear:
1) The NMB LOVES precedent. They love it because it doesn't make it look like they're inventing anything. This goes double (or triple) if it was recent.
2) The last few pilot arbitrations has gone straight relative seniority. Strip the handwaving/justification away from the recent DAL/NWA merger, and that's what you got, down to a decimal point. Pay didn't matter, contracts didn't matter, merger or acquisition didn't matter, relative size didn't matter. AAA/AWA was essentially the same, with the exception of a cutout for the larger 330 aircraft. AAI/SWA has no such differential.
3) Alot of effort has been used to move away the DOH method of integration. It will be VERY difficult to re-introduce it at this point and be able to point to recent precendence.
4) Pay/contracts do not figure into the equation. The career expectaions that the NMB will see is this: SWA pilot at the end of 20 years: 737 captain. AAI pilot at the end of 20 years: 737 captain.
5) Holding companies prior to SOC are extremely common, and nothing should be read into it. The companies cannot fully merge until they have achived a single operating certificate, which is not done overnight. NWA was placed into their own holding company, operated as a subsidiary to DAL until that date. Even though they carried DAL paint, NWA birds read "Operated by Northwest Airlines" , and used the NWA callsign until SOC, which was a year after the corporate closing.
6) The SWA pilots and the AAI pilots can decide in their own mind whatever is fair, but what they think doesn't matter. In the end, both sides agree, or someone else gets to decide what is fair for them.
7) While it is true that SWA management MAY decide to run a legal gauntlet to set up separate ops, it would be a risk to do so. Relying upon what SWA management has considered important in the past, such as corprate culture, is also suspect, because so may of the other things that were important to them in the past have been jettisoned already, including mergers, hub operations, congested airports, code sharing and bigger/different aircraft.
8) Depending on some sleigh of hand corporate handwaving on SWAs part to avoid combining the pilot groups may help you sleep at night, but I would place odds against it. What you see in the SEC filings happening is a safe bet.
Nu