1261 days to go!

[Quiet Flight]

1254!

 

[Quiet Flight]

Custom countdown available here: http://www.timeanddate.com/counters/customcount.html

 

[zonker]

Everyone just calls names and argues their side without any data to back their argument. The young guys say get out of my way and the baby boomers say shut up, I will make more money and you can work five more years also so you shouldn’t complain. It is true the baby boomers will get to work longer and make more money however it will be at the cost of generations to come.
Here is the logic. I will give three scenarios. All will be of a 30 year old regional captain. Scenario #1 will be if said person got hired at a major airline today and the old age 60 rule was still enforced. Scenario #2 he will not get hired at a major airline for another 5 years however he will retire at 65. Scenario #3 he will not get hired at a major airline for another 5 years but will retire early at age 60.
I’ll use rough average numbers $100,000/yr FO and $170,000/yr Captain.
Scenario #1.
$1,000,000 10yrs FO
$3,400,000 20yrs Captain
=
$4.4 million
Scenario #2
$350,000 5yrs regional Captain
$1,000,000 10yrs FO
$3,400,000 20yrs Captain
=
$4.75 million
Scenario #3
$350,000 5yrs regional Captain
$1,000,000 10yrs FO
$2,550,000 15yrs Captain
=
$3.9 million
So yes the baby boomers are right you can work five more years however you won’t make more money. If this person wants to retire at age 60 he will make half a million dollars less than pre age 65 days. Or he can work until 63 and make the same amount, basically working 3 years for free.

Don't forget about compound interest.

Anyway, only a bunch of dumbass pilots could come up with the idea that everyone should work longer for less money. Thanks, John Prater! Hey instead of lobbying to repeal the RLA that has constrained working people since 1926 let's find an easy way out and steal seniority from young families that can barely pay their bills. Brilliant!

 

[aircombat]

Don't forget about compound interest.

Anyway, only a bunch of dumbass pilots could come up with the idea that everyone should work longer for less money. Thanks, John Prater! Hey instead of lobbying to repeal the RLA that has constrained working people since 1926 let's find an easy way out and steal seniority from young families that can barely pay their bills. Brilliant!

yeah compound interest for the few that are smart enough to invest. Compound interest would also be a good argument for a flat rate. However it seems that we aren't in the business of making money.

 

[PeanuckleCRJ]

Everyone just calls names and argues their side without any data to back their argument. The young guys say get out of my way and the baby boomers say shut up, I will make more money and you can work five more years also so you shouldn’t complain. It is true the baby boomers will get to work longer and make more money however it will be at the cost of generations to come.
Here is the logic. I will give three scenarios. All will be of a 30 year old regional captain. Scenario #1 will be if said person got hired at a major airline today and the old age 60 rule was still enforced. Scenario #2 he will not get hired at a major airline for another 5 years however he will retire at 65. Scenario #3 he will not get hired at a major airline for another 5 years but will retire early at age 60.
I’ll use rough average numbers $100,000/yr FO and $170,000/yr Captain.
Scenario #1.
$1,000,000 10yrs FO
$3,400,000 20yrs Captain
=
$4.4 million
Scenario #2
$350,000 5yrs regional Captain
$1,000,000 10yrs FO
$3,400,000 20yrs Captain
=
$4.75 million
Scenario #3
$350,000 5yrs regional Captain
$1,000,000 10yrs FO
$2,550,000 15yrs Captain
=
$3.9 million
So yes the baby boomers are right you can work five more years however you won’t make more money. If this person wants to retire at age 60 he will make half a million dollars less than pre age 65 days. Or he can work until 63 and make the same amount, basically working 3 years for free.

Don't forget the 5 year stagnation as an FO as a result of age 65. 5 years more as an FO.. 5 years less as a CA.

 

[Whataburger]

Our upgrade time doubled.

 

[The Prussian]

Factor in some good stuff like youth,....and beauty....

 

[aircombat]

Don't forget the 5 year stagnation as an FO as a result of age 65. 5 years more as an FO.. 5 years less as a CA.

I calculated the stagnation as a regional captain. clearly that's worse than a major FO. Stagnation as a regional FO would be even worse and if you are stagnated as a flight instructor we are talking huge loses. But we should feel bad for the old guys because now instead of retiring filthy rich they are only going to be moderately rich.

 

[Flying Freddie]

Hey Hoser

No Country For Old Men...GET THE F UCK OUT OF MY SEAT!

It ain't your seat if you ain't in it. Now finish up the weight and balance so you can assist the Captain.

 

[Quimby]

It ain't your seat if you ain't in it. Now finish up the weight and balance so you can assist the Captain.

...with his walker & bags.:smash:

 

[The Prussian]

1253!

 

[Quimby]

30,072 hrs

 

[Whataburger]

I'm diggin' the team effort.

 

[flyf15]

Age 65 has nothing to do with getting to be in that senior widebody captain slot for an extra 5 years.

It means everyone gets to spend 5 extra years where they are now. Senior widebody captains get 5 extra years there. Legacy FOs get 5 extra years there (due to delayed upgrades because of no retirements). RJ pilots get 5 extra years there (due to no hiring because of no retirement). Furloughed pilots get an extra 5 years there. New pilots flight instructing in 172s or flying sketchy Navajos around in the middle of the night get an extra 5 years there. And so on and so forth.

If you're happy with where you are in aviation right now and don't mind spending 5 more years in the seat you're in than you had planned, Age 65 is great. Otherwise, it sucks... especially when the next move you planned on making would've increased your QOL or pay, but now you cannot make that move for 5 years. Need to upgrade before you have that kid? Need to get a job at a better airline before you buy that house? Need to move to bigger equipment before you buy that car? Thats all going to have to happen 5 years later than you planned.

The only people making money off this deal are the ones at the top when the music stopped. Everyone else got delt a bad hand... 5 more years as an FO, as an RJ pilot, on furlough, etc. Compared to what they would be doing, sounds like they're in for losing quite a bit of money.

Plus, as an added bonus, EVERYONE gets to work an extra 5 years now! That part I'm excited about, I was hoping that I wouldn't get to spend all those extra years of my life doing things I want to do. Pilots don't have that great of a life expectancy anyways, why work til 65 when you're going to die at 70-75 anyways.... how many 90 yearold ALPA members or even former airline pilots at all do you see walking around? Personally, I haven't ever....

 

[N1VIBS]

1253!

OK what am I missing here? What happens in 1200 days? The age 65 law will still be around, right? The only difference I see is there will be a new group of over 60's to take the place of the current group. I seriously doubt that in 1200 days, every pilot 60 or older is going to retire. You will, of course move up a few senority numbers when the 65 group leaves, but there will still be a lot of over 60's around. This will go on forever (unless the law changes back to age 60, which I doubt).

 

[Quimby]

OK what am I missing here? What happens in 1200 days? The age 65 law will still be around, right? The only difference I see is there will be a new group of over 60's to take the place of the current group. I seriously doubt that in 1200 days, every pilot 60 or older is going to retire. You will, of course move up a few senority numbers when the 65 group leaves, but there will still be a lot of over 60's around. This will go on forever (unless the law changes back to age 60, which I doubt).

movement.

 

[Flopgut]

OK what am I missing here? What happens in 1200 days? The age 65 law will still be around, right? The only difference I see is there will be a new group of over 60's to take the place of the current group. I seriously doubt that in 1200 days, every pilot 60 or older is going to retire. You will, of course move up a few senority numbers when the 65 group leaves, but there will still be a lot of over 60's around. This will go on forever (unless the law changes back to age 60, which I doubt).

There will be a great deal of movement. Age 60 was young enough that a large number of airline pilot retirees could go on to work longer as pilots. Age 65 changes things. In 1200 days the retired pilots will stay retired whether they want to or not. Additionally, the pilots who missed the cutoff for 65 and are currently working will be long gone. Consider that new pilots aren't in the pipeline....three years from now things might get interesting.

What we have to be guarded against is another backstab from the current old guys.

* Also, it shouldn't take another 1200 days. Most of these guys should not have to work up to the last second. There will be a window in the last 6-12 months where they start to bail out. Only ones hanging on to the last instant are the ones with more than three exes, or even bigger problems?!

 

[GuppyWN]

The rule should be tied to social security age. Period.

The greedy bastards who already had an entire career stay and ************************* the furloughed guys who are trying to get a start.

Gup

 

[The Prussian]

1252!!

 

[20sx]

I'm not sure about the last 6-12 months generating movement. There are still furloughes that have to get called back first. Not that that will take long, it just provides a slight delay.