Delta-Northwest Deal at Risk

[123]

The attractiveness of bases is such a subjective topic that there is no place for it in discussions regarding seniority integration.

Maybe NW/DAL wont be able to broker a deal and you can hook up with United. I am sure that the integration of lists would go much smoother with them.

 

[JOPILOT]

Northwelta Air Lines could offer the top 1200 or so NWA pilots a "don't be a chump take a lump" deal that they could not pass up, much like the DAL senior pilots took... Distribute the rest of the note as unfairly or fairly as DAL did with it's pilots. Afterword I think everyone would be ready for DOH integration, international expansion and retirement of all NWA's sh#tbirds, making way for new equipment while not disrupting the connection/ airlink carriers?

Just an idea, but I just hope I can hold ramper in DTW after the smoke clears from the reaming that is on the way.

 

[General Lee]

The attractiveness of bases is such a subjective topic that there is no place for it in discussions regarding seniority integration.

Maybe NW/DAL wont be able to broker a deal and you can hook up with United. I am sure that the integration of lists would go much smoother with them.

So, if it doesn't matter to you (or the 1000 NWA guys living in warmer places like FLA), then let's fence the bases too. Why not? You don't care...

And, the UAL deal would go the same way. How about you guys and CAL? They have hired a lot more newbies lately than DL. I bet your negotiators smell fresh meat over there too.....riiiight.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

You crack me up. At least it is always sunny in your world. In your case, arrogance is bliss, isn't it?

Tell me where I am wrong here? UPS is parking their 747-100/200s, and even JAL Cargo and NCA are replacing thier 747-200s with -400s. So, let me get this straight, you will be the only ones out there with -200s? Riiight. What will replace them? You also lost your largest cargo contract---DHL. You also bring to the table 90 or so current DC9s. You have no orders for anything other than 787s, which again was delayed. The 787 is supposed to pay more than the A330, so that would be the highest paying plane for the pax side if the 744 goes the cargo route. Can you follow me? No arrogance here, and I would like you to tell me how YOU think your fleet will play out in the next 5 years (without a DL merger).


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[123]

General, for as much experience as you appear to have in the airline business, you must have witnessed base openings and closings, changing of equipment throughout bases, increases and decreases in flying at a particular base to realize that tieing any hopes to a particular base is fruitless.

 

[GogglesPisano]

The attractiveness of bases is such a subjective topic that there is no place for it in discussions regarding seniority integration.

.

You must fly for NWA.

 

[123]

Tell me where I am wrong here? UPS is parking their 747-100/200s, and even JAL Cargo and NCA are replacing thier 747-200s with -400s. So, let me get this straight, you will be the only ones out there with -200s? Riiight. What will replace them? You also lost your largest cargo contract---DHL. You also bring to the table 90 or so current DC9s. You have no orders for anything other than 787s, which again was delayed. The 787 is supposed to pay more than the A330, so that would be the highest paying plane for the pax side if the 744 goes the cargo route. Can you follow me? No arrogance here, and I would like you to tell me how YOU think your fleet will play out in the next 5 years (without a DL merger).


Bye Bye--General Lee

Sounds plausible. Bottom line is that NWA must strive to generate the revenues as predicted in the business plan during bk in order to satisfy lenders. DL has been very forthright in announcing their plans for expansion and growth, in order to meet this demand. Unfortunately, NW has been close-lipped (as usual) about future plans. Bottom line is that you have no more of an idea of the plan than I do.

However, one side of your mouth states that you can't plan expectations due to "possible" retirements of NWA pilots, yet the other side of your mouth is spouting the rapid reduction of NWA aircraft. DL has 777's on order, MD90's are a signature away, etc, etc....NWA 787's don't count because they are not on property and the others are just orders. I know though, it is hard to look at something with a rational mind when looking through those thick Delta is My Home glasses (were you a contributing author to "The South was Right"?)

 

[123]

You must fly for NWA.

Yep, and I am freezing my ___ here in MN and loving it (well, it could be a little warmer)

 

[727RedTails]

General Lee,

Heres the issue for me. Delta has a few planes on order, great. Most of the movement will come from growth at Delta. You guys have a lot of debt due in the future and a lot lower margins. I don't know how often you get thru DTW or MSP but we have very few weather delays and run a very smooth operation in what are basically fortress hubs. What fortress hubs does Delta have now? Great your getting a few 777's to fly to Asia. Those a/c will be just like your 767's and somewhat obsolete in the next ten years with the 787 coming onboard. NWA has been talking to the manufacturers about a 737, DC9 replacement a/c with a geared turbine and much lower operating costs.

The hub in Asia, is not only for USA to Asia pax. A majority are from Japan and Asia and stay in Asia. NWA is able to pick up addtl pax in Narita, Osaka etc. Delta has nothing like this around the world and can't get any kind of agreement like this in Asia.

Current Delta pilots such as yourself benefited from the early outs and the govt pension bailout. There will be very little movement from retirements on your side for a long time. The NWA pilots saved pensions and have a Targeted Distribution but also have many many retirements in the next few years. Most won't stay til 65 because their pension is frozen. Do you really think it's fair to have the junior Delta pilots come onboard above the junior NWA pilots. They would then benefit more from your early outs and then benefit from our upcoming retirements.

Don't get me wrong I think both NWA and Delta would be stronger in the upcoming Worldwide Airline Enviornment as a team rather than separate. Hopefully something fair can be worked out...

 

[jetflier]

Sure, that makes sense. You are also bringing planes to the table that will likely be parked sooner than later, and that includes the 68 larger DC9s. You have no replacement order for those, except E175s for Compass. Your only outstanding order I believe is the 787 order, which is being delayed constantly. None of your hubs are desireable to anyone of our pilots, unless they commute from there, unlike our warmer hubs to the south, which sound like heaven to your commuters. But hey, if you want to keep your current management and go forward, then that is up to your negotiators, who sound like Easties from USAir (if the reports are right). Let's hope for fair and balanced...


Bye Bye--General Lee

General,

We like our hubs thank you very much...

I know ATL is a southern hub. You do mention others, what are they ?

I might be interested...

 

[Truckdriver]

Do you really think it's fair to have the junior Delta pilots come onboard above the junior NWA pilots.

If both the Delta pilot and Northwest pilot remain in the same relative position as they were before the merger, then it is absolutely fair. If a DC-9 Captain remains a DC-9 Captain and stays in the same relative position as they were before, how is that unfair? The date you were hired is irrelevant. It is all about where you are at NOW and where you will be at AFTER the merger.

 

[123]

If both the Delta pilot and Northwest pilot remain in the same relative position as they were before the merger, then it is absolutely fair. If a DC-9 Captain remains a DC-9 Captain and stays in the same relative position as they were before, how is that unfair? The date you were hired is irrelevant. It is all about where you are at NOW and where you will be at AFTER the merger.

How about that they stay in their relative position throughout the next 15 years? That way, I will be able to realize the benefit of those NWA retirements that the some say may not necessarily be happening. If they don't retire, then we all just plug along in our reletive seniority.

 

[727RedTails]

Truckdriver,

The problem is that there won't be much movement upward on the Delta list for many years to come. There will be on the NWA side. Relative position from retirements mean you go toward the top, relative postion from growth is all behind you.

 

[michael707767]

Truckdriver,

The problem is that there won't be much movement upward on the Delta list for many years to come. There will be on the NWA side. Relative position from retirements mean you go toward the top, relative postion from growth is all behind you.

Then lets just put up fences saying you are stuck with your equipment, we are stuck with ours. I feel just fine about my futue advancement based on our growth and retirements.

 

[727RedTails]

michael707767,

Fences will probably be the answer in the end. But don't forget those 787's are ours, along with the growth they bring.

 

[General Lee]

General Lee,

Heres the issue for me. Delta has a few planes on order, great. Most of the movement will come from growth at Delta. You guys have a lot of debt due in the future and a lot lower margins. I don't know how often you get thru DTW or MSP but we have very few weather delays and run a very smooth operation in what are basically fortress hubs. What fortress hubs does Delta have now? Great your getting a few 777's to fly to Asia. Those a/c will be just like your 767's and somewhat obsolete in the next ten years with the 787 coming onboard. NWA has been talking to the manufacturers about a 737, DC9 replacement a/c with a geared turbine and much lower operating costs.

The hub in Asia, is not only for USA to Asia pax. A majority are from Japan and Asia and stay in Asia. NWA is able to pick up addtl pax in Narita, Osaka etc. Delta has nothing like this around the world and can't get any kind of agreement like this in Asia.

Current Delta pilots such as yourself benefited from the early outs and the govt pension bailout. There will be very little movement from retirements on your side for a long time. The NWA pilots saved pensions and have a Targeted Distribution but also have many many retirements in the next few years. Most won't stay til 65 because their pension is frozen. Do you really think it's fair to have the junior Delta pilots come onboard above the junior NWA pilots. They would then benefit more from your early outs and then benefit from our upcoming retirements.

Don't get me wrong I think both NWA and Delta would be stronger in the upcoming Worldwide Airline Enviornment as a team rather than separate. Hopefully something fair can be worked out...

I am glad you too want something fair, just like most of us. The news articles can be misleading of course, but most are pointing at your "cowboy" negotiators. (in Liz Fador's article) We all know that the press can add to the flame, but come on now.

I will try to refute some of your claims.


So, we have A LOT OF DEBT due in the future. We do? Are we not addressing those issues with our CONSTANT addition of INTL routes with better yields available? Today we announced even more flights to Europe this Summer, and that is when we and most airlines make our big money. We are working on our revenue management, and we have guys now that have brought it up ten fold from where it was in BK. It is a work in progress to say the least, but we have smart guys on it.

We are getting a few planes you say. We are getting 12 more 777LRs (new ones--LONG RANGE) in the next two years--for a total of 20 777s. (more than your number if 744s) Have you seen the migration of Asian carriers switching to 777s or 777-300ERs on Asian routes? Why are they doing that? They carry about the same cargo, with more fuel efficiency. ANA flies 777s to all US destinations now from NRT, and EVA now flies the same to LAX from TPE. More of the 744s are moving to the cargo side, and yours will likely do the same. They just eat too much gas. And you say they will be obsolete in 10 years? We are getting the newest version, the LR. I doubt that. We are also getting up to 25 737-700s for more Latin America expansion (something you know nothing about except your Sat A320 service from Liberia to MSP in the Wintertime), and can buy MD90s (something you should trade your old DC9-50s for) when we want to. You are only focused on Asia, and you haven't really added any new routes there in awhile. You traded out your 742s to GUM and SPN to A330s, and also added one from HNL to NRT. Not much new growth at all. Your European expansion is underwhelming, and your new BDL-AMS route is skeptical at best. You cut your BRU service from DTW, and the only new service I can see is DTW to Dusseldorf. Didn't you go to Rome, too? Gone now. We both have new service to LHR coming up, and you also will add CDG to MSP, the first NEW European service from MSP in years....In reality, you have substituted your A330 expansion to Europe with your A330s replacing your DC10 and 742s in Asia, and you don't have much room to grow without getting those 787s, which are now delayed again. I am glad NWA has been "talking" to manufacturers about a DC9 replacement. How long will it take?

So, you are the Asian's pick for intra Asia flying out of NRT, huh? Really? You don't have that many flights. Most of the cities you go to from NRT have one daily flight, whereas the national airlines of those other countries have 3 or 4 daily flights (Singapore Airlines has 4 daily flights from SIN to NRT, and you have one). You do fly a lot of Guam and Saipan, with only competition from JALWays (JAL's LCC). JAL and ANA probably have the locals' "heart"--not you guys, unless you believe Diesel9 and his lady gate agent friend in NRT....

Next you point out that we have benefited from our retirements and gov't bailout. Yes, we did benefit from the early outs, which would benefit you too. Do we want 5000 very old guys in a merger? Do you? A lot of them were self centered jerks who didn't even know what an RJ was. I bet you have some of those types too over there. They need to go too. Are you sure they will all go by age 60? If we still had that age 60 rule, then it would be clearer who would go, since they would have to go by 60. That isn't clear now, and you nor I can assume they WILL go at 60. They may not. So, there should be a fence for 5 or more years to keep people out--making sure they will leave by 65 and not disrupt anyone currently here. As far as how the junior should me merged, I think a percentage merger is fair--if you are in the bottom 20% of your company, you should be in the bottom 20% of a new one. That is how the arbitrator did it with USAir--he put the top 550 USAir guys out front, (just like your top 400 744 guys should probably) and the rest in a percentage, regardless of experience. That is also how it would likely turn out in arbitration, along with your career expectations with your DC9s going away without a solid replacement scheduled. 90 planes with only E175s looking to cover for them right now. The arbitrator will know that.


So, I along with you hope for a fair merger of lists, and hope that your cowboy negotiators lasso themselves into reality.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Diesel-9]

Hope they fence the 744-4F's and A-330F's as they come aboard since they are replacement aircraft. P.S. Lt. Lee, I heard what your redneck negotiators asked for. Talk about living in a dream. Just like any negotiations, openers don't mean much. The remaining -9's with higher utilization rates are here for awhile. If the Boeing project fails the new C-Series is rumored to be the -9 replacement with the Em-195 a second choice.

 

[michael707767]

Why do you think that DOH wouldn't be fair, at least for the majority of the seniority lists.

No two airlines are the same, so no two hire dates represent the same thing.

Taken to an extreme, do you think a pilot hired at CMR today is really getting the same job as a pilot hired at Delta today? One will be starting his/her job in a 50 seat RJ, the other an 88, 737 or possibly a 7ER. The CMR pilot will either retire in a 76 RJ, or will leave their current job to move on to.....a job where they may start in an 88, a 737 or a 7ER.

A closer example would be AirTran and Southwest. A pilot hired at Airtran today has the same career expectation as a Southwest pilot hired today, to end up in a 737. But clearly, the Airtran pilot was not hired into a job that has the same career value as a Southwest pilot.

Now things change. A pilot can be hired at an airline that really is not a career airline, but it turns into one. Southwest and Airtran are both examples of that. And new equipment can change that. ACA/Independence changed how they would have been treated in a merger when they got Airbus equipment.

However, as I said, since the career prospects of two pilots hired on the same day are not equal unless they are both hired at the same airline, I don't think their hire dates represent equal seniority within the airline industry. You have to look at what they bring to the table when considering how to integrate two pilot groups.

I don't care when someone was hired. Hire date only matters in determining how to put a new hire on the list of an existing company. But until you can tell me all airlines are equal, with equal equipment, pay scales, advancement, etc. then I don't believe that DOH should be a factor in a merger.

 

[727RedTails]

Career expectations sounds good to me. I'm set to retire at seniority 51 at NWA. :beer:

 

[General Lee]

Hope they fence the 744-4F's and A-330F's as they come aboard since they are replacement aircraft. P.S. Lt. Lee, I heard what your redneck negotiators asked for. Talk about living in a dream. Just like any negotiations, openers don't mean much.

Can you share it with me in a PM? Or, are you fooling everyone just like Liz Fador? Our Rednecks and your Hosers are probably going to go the arbitration way, which favors a percentage merger just like US and AWA got. Did all of that USAir experience matter to Nicelau? Did USAir have 90 or more old planes on the way out, along with 13 742s? I think your experienced hosers might want to rethink arbitration. Hey, can you tell me again what your NRT gate agent friend told you about Delta and our image in Japan? I have a similar story about Northwest in Europe, Africa, and South America...

And, do the Dutch people love you guys more than KLM in AMS too?


Bye Bye--General Lee