Delta-Northwest Deal at Risk

[General Lee]

General Lee,

Heres the issue for me. Delta has a few planes on order, great. Most of the movement will come from growth at Delta. You guys have a lot of debt due in the future and a lot lower margins. I don't know how often you get thru DTW or MSP but we have very few weather delays and run a very smooth operation in what are basically fortress hubs. What fortress hubs does Delta have now? Great your getting a few 777's to fly to Asia. Those a/c will be just like your 767's and somewhat obsolete in the next ten years with the 787 coming onboard. NWA has been talking to the manufacturers about a 737, DC9 replacement a/c with a geared turbine and much lower operating costs.

The hub in Asia, is not only for USA to Asia pax. A majority are from Japan and Asia and stay in Asia. NWA is able to pick up addtl pax in Narita, Osaka etc. Delta has nothing like this around the world and can't get any kind of agreement like this in Asia.

Current Delta pilots such as yourself benefited from the early outs and the govt pension bailout. There will be very little movement from retirements on your side for a long time. The NWA pilots saved pensions and have a Targeted Distribution but also have many many retirements in the next few years. Most won't stay til 65 because their pension is frozen. Do you really think it's fair to have the junior Delta pilots come onboard above the junior NWA pilots. They would then benefit more from your early outs and then benefit from our upcoming retirements.

Don't get me wrong I think both NWA and Delta would be stronger in the upcoming Worldwide Airline Enviornment as a team rather than separate. Hopefully something fair can be worked out...

I am glad you too want something fair, just like most of us. The news articles can be misleading of course, but most are pointing at your "cowboy" negotiators. (in Liz Fador's article) We all know that the press can add to the flame, but come on now.

I will try to refute some of your claims.


So, we have A LOT OF DEBT due in the future. We do? Are we not addressing those issues with our CONSTANT addition of INTL routes with better yields available? Today we announced even more flights to Europe this Summer, and that is when we and most airlines make our big money. We are working on our revenue management, and we have guys now that have brought it up ten fold from where it was in BK. It is a work in progress to say the least, but we have smart guys on it.

We are getting a few planes you say. We are getting 12 more 777LRs (new ones--LONG RANGE) in the next two years--for a total of 20 777s. (more than your number if 744s) Have you seen the migration of Asian carriers switching to 777s or 777-300ERs on Asian routes? Why are they doing that? They carry about the same cargo, with more fuel efficiency. ANA flies 777s to all US destinations now from NRT, and EVA now flies the same to LAX from TPE. More of the 744s are moving to the cargo side, and yours will likely do the same. They just eat too much gas. And you say they will be obsolete in 10 years? We are getting the newest version, the LR. I doubt that. We are also getting up to 25 737-700s for more Latin America expansion (something you know nothing about except your Sat A320 service from Liberia to MSP in the Wintertime), and can buy MD90s (something you should trade your old DC9-50s for) when we want to. You are only focused on Asia, and you haven't really added any new routes there in awhile. You traded out your 742s to GUM and SPN to A330s, and also added one from HNL to NRT. Not much new growth at all. Your European expansion is underwhelming, and your new BDL-AMS route is skeptical at best. You cut your BRU service from DTW, and the only new service I can see is DTW to Dusseldorf. Didn't you go to Rome, too? Gone now. We both have new service to LHR coming up, and you also will add CDG to MSP, the first NEW European service from MSP in years....In reality, you have substituted your A330 expansion to Europe with your A330s replacing your DC10 and 742s in Asia, and you don't have much room to grow without getting those 787s, which are now delayed again. I am glad NWA has been "talking" to manufacturers about a DC9 replacement. How long will it take?

So, you are the Asian's pick for intra Asia flying out of NRT, huh? Really? You don't have that many flights. Most of the cities you go to from NRT have one daily flight, whereas the national airlines of those other countries have 3 or 4 daily flights (Singapore Airlines has 4 daily flights from SIN to NRT, and you have one). You do fly a lot of Guam and Saipan, with only competition from JALWays (JAL's LCC). JAL and ANA probably have the locals' "heart"--not you guys, unless you believe Diesel9 and his lady gate agent friend in NRT....

Next you point out that we have benefited from our retirements and gov't bailout. Yes, we did benefit from the early outs, which would benefit you too. Do we want 5000 very old guys in a merger? Do you? A lot of them were self centered jerks who didn't even know what an RJ was. I bet you have some of those types too over there. They need to go too. Are you sure they will all go by age 60? If we still had that age 60 rule, then it would be clearer who would go, since they would have to go by 60. That isn't clear now, and you nor I can assume they WILL go at 60. They may not. So, there should be a fence for 5 or more years to keep people out--making sure they will leave by 65 and not disrupt anyone currently here. As far as how the junior should me merged, I think a percentage merger is fair--if you are in the bottom 20% of your company, you should be in the bottom 20% of a new one. That is how the arbitrator did it with USAir--he put the top 550 USAir guys out front, (just like your top 400 744 guys should probably) and the rest in a percentage, regardless of experience. That is also how it would likely turn out in arbitration, along with your career expectations with your DC9s going away without a solid replacement scheduled. 90 planes with only E175s looking to cover for them right now. The arbitrator will know that.


So, I along with you hope for a fair merger of lists, and hope that your cowboy negotiators lasso themselves into reality.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Diesel-9]

Hope they fence the 744-4F's and A-330F's as they come aboard since they are replacement aircraft. P.S. Lt. Lee, I heard what your redneck negotiators asked for. Talk about living in a dream. Just like any negotiations, openers don't mean much. The remaining -9's with higher utilization rates are here for awhile. If the Boeing project fails the new C-Series is rumored to be the -9 replacement with the Em-195 a second choice.

 

[michael707767]

Why do you think that DOH wouldn't be fair, at least for the majority of the seniority lists.

No two airlines are the same, so no two hire dates represent the same thing.

Taken to an extreme, do you think a pilot hired at CMR today is really getting the same job as a pilot hired at Delta today? One will be starting his/her job in a 50 seat RJ, the other an 88, 737 or possibly a 7ER. The CMR pilot will either retire in a 76 RJ, or will leave their current job to move on to.....a job where they may start in an 88, a 737 or a 7ER.

A closer example would be AirTran and Southwest. A pilot hired at Airtran today has the same career expectation as a Southwest pilot hired today, to end up in a 737. But clearly, the Airtran pilot was not hired into a job that has the same career value as a Southwest pilot.

Now things change. A pilot can be hired at an airline that really is not a career airline, but it turns into one. Southwest and Airtran are both examples of that. And new equipment can change that. ACA/Independence changed how they would have been treated in a merger when they got Airbus equipment.

However, as I said, since the career prospects of two pilots hired on the same day are not equal unless they are both hired at the same airline, I don't think their hire dates represent equal seniority within the airline industry. You have to look at what they bring to the table when considering how to integrate two pilot groups.

I don't care when someone was hired. Hire date only matters in determining how to put a new hire on the list of an existing company. But until you can tell me all airlines are equal, with equal equipment, pay scales, advancement, etc. then I don't believe that DOH should be a factor in a merger.

 

[727RedTails]

Career expectations sounds good to me. I'm set to retire at seniority 51 at NWA. :beer:

 

[General Lee]

Hope they fence the 744-4F's and A-330F's as they come aboard since they are replacement aircraft. P.S. Lt. Lee, I heard what your redneck negotiators asked for. Talk about living in a dream. Just like any negotiations, openers don't mean much.

Can you share it with me in a PM? Or, are you fooling everyone just like Liz Fador? Our Rednecks and your Hosers are probably going to go the arbitration way, which favors a percentage merger just like US and AWA got. Did all of that USAir experience matter to Nicelau? Did USAir have 90 or more old planes on the way out, along with 13 742s? I think your experienced hosers might want to rethink arbitration. Hey, can you tell me again what your NRT gate agent friend told you about Delta and our image in Japan? I have a similar story about Northwest in Europe, Africa, and South America...

And, do the Dutch people love you guys more than KLM in AMS too?


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Career expectations sounds good to me. I'm set to retire at seniority 51 at NWA. :beer:

I'm top twenty at Delta.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[michael707767]

Career expectations sounds good to me. I'm set to retire at seniority 51 at NWA. :beer:

Me too. I am set to retire at number 74 at Delta. Given the size of Delta relative to NW, we would retire at about the same percentage.

 

[slinky]

Career expectations sounds good to me. I'm set to retire at seniority 51 at NWA. :beer:

Fine with me. I was hired in Aug 07 at Delta any my retirement # is 187.....

Lets can Sh!t and have the MEC's just be fair....I do not want a windfall. I just want it to be fair. It would be nice to have a good working relationship with the NW guys when we, eventaully, share the same cockpits.

slinky

 

[chk6]

Sounds fine to me. Hired in March 07 and my retirement # is in the top 35. Career expectations should be adressed for the junior Delta guys as well.

 

[727RedTails]

General,

Yes, I'm glad you got rid of the senior guys. We will be in the next couple years. I would say there are quite a few neither one of us would want to fly with. I would like to see you guys get credit for your 50 and over crowd leaving, but us get credit for our old guys leaving in the future. The movement UP in a combined company would be from our retirements at the top, That need to be addressed to be fair.

My solution would be to put a ratio at the top and doh at the bottom of the lists.

 

[123]

We are getting a few planes you say. We are getting 12 more 777LRs (new ones--LONG RANGE) in the next two years--for a total of 20 777s... We are also getting up to 25 737-700s...and can buy MD90s (something you should trade your old DC9-50s for)

Hey General,

Maybe you have more current information, but here is what I pulled up on the Delta.com website regarding aircraft operating and orders:

777-200ER: Owned: 8 Leased: 0 Orders: 0 Options: 0
777-200LR: Owned: 0 Leased: 0 Orders: 8 Options: 11
737 (both types): 50 orders and 60 options
Nothing for the MD90s regarding orders or options

--------
I am just trying to get the facts...

 

[NYRANGERS]

Career expectations sounds good to me. I'm set to retire at seniority 51 at NWA. :beer:

Sounds good, I'm looking at #18. Although the best thing for us Delta guys is for this deal to DIE!!

 

[727RedTails]

NYRangers,

I like the fact your a hockey fan. We've got a pretty good team here in DTW. Now if they can get the cup....

With a DOH merger you would probably stay at 18 or within a couple numbers at retirement. That would be at a much bigger healther company that we can all retire from. NWA pre 9-11 the average age of a new hire was in the mid 30's so those of you hired young at Delta would turn out pretty good. You hear that General.

 

[NYRANGERS]

NYRangers,

I like the fact your a hockey fan. We've got a pretty good team here in DTW. Now if they can get the cup....

With a DOH merger you would probably stay at 18 or within a couple numbers at retirement. That would be at a much bigger healther company that we can all retire from. NWA pre 9-11 the average age of a new hire was in the mid 30's so those of you hired young at Delta would turn out pretty good. You hear that General.

No thanks on DOH. I am 600 numbers from 88 captain in NY. With the 777 737-700s and 757's comming that won't take very long.

As for hockey, you sure do have a great team in DTW. The Rangers managed to blow a 5-0 lead to the Canadians and lose in a shootout. 5-6.


Scratch that....just checked the latest AE. I am 480 numbers from 88 captain in NY.

 

[Cessna340]

Sounds good, I'm looking at #18. Although the best thing for us Delta guys is for this deal to DIE!!

Just checked. Year 2040 I'll be DAL #7. Even though I live in Michigan and commute to NYC from DTW, I'd rather continue this commute than get screwed on seniority for the next 32 years.