Future Of Nwa?????

[N813CA]

Is there one? Or do you see a merger and furlough?

 

[Fly4hire]

Is there one? Or do you see a merger and furlough?

Very bright future. NWA will need 2-3000 additional pilots as a result of 787 alone. If we merge we have a substantial productivity advantage that factors into effective number of pilots for integration calculations (however you do it) that evens the playing field even with the usual suspect larger carriers. We have large numbers of older pilots, who 65 or not will be retiring in the next 10 years.

 

[contrail67]

2-3000 just for the 787??? How many are you suppose to get?

 

[IXLR8]

I'm thinking 200-300......typo

 

[xjhawk]

yeah, on the books for 18 solid orders, and options thereafter. It will be sought after plane by most companies, and they are already announcing delays for first deliveries. Guess what, it will be real hard to get more of those 787's. Oh, and I would think even though NWA is the launch customer here in the US, I do not think it has the most orders. So given NWA's past history with Boeing, it will not be high on the list to be getting those additional orders. I am referring to NWA giving their last big contract to airbus (32 A330's instead of the B777) and before that, ordering 100's of 320's instead of 737's. I might be wrong, but I would think that might have something to do with ordering airplanes.....but them money talks. Not to mention, I am someone who will be the first to say I am not an expert on this deal

 

[Fly4hire]

yeah, on the books for 18 solid orders, and options thereafter. It will be sought after plane by most companies, and they are already announcing delays for first deliveries. Guess what, it will be real hard to get more of those 787's. Oh, and I would think though NWA is the launch customer here in the US, I do not think it has the most orders.

18 orders, 50 options. The question you need to ask is where are those options executable? If they are production line, head of the line options they can tie up deliveries for other carriers who were not first in line. Think about the strategic ramifications of NWA having almost a monopoly on the US flag carriers with a fleet of up to 68 787's enjoying 30% plus fuel savings on their international routes while no other flag carrier other than CAL has even ordered yet, for a 5 yr plus wait.

As to crews, we crew at 7 crews/acft for ~1000 on the 787, plus retirements and there is your 2-3K pilots over the next 5 yrs

 

[Green Banana]

Very bright future. NWA will need 2-3000 additional pilots as a result of 787 alone..

I believe the number is closer to "2"

 

[DAL737FO]

Very bright future. NWA will need 2-3000 additional pilots as a result of 787 alone. If we merge we have a substantial productivity advantage that factors into effective number of pilots for integration calculations (however you do it) that evens the playing field even with the usual suspect larger carriers. We have large numbers of older pilots, who 65 or not will be retiring in the next 10 years.

Either you have pilots on your list or you don't there is no such thing as a "productivity advantage that factors into effective number of pilots for integration calculations". You had better take a look at your ALPA merger policy and see what it says about hypothethical pilots for integration. If any of your union reps are telling you this now you might as well recall them. If this is your standpoint over there you might as well plan on going to arbitration. It worked out so well for US Air in that regard.

 

[Fly4hire]

Either you have pilots on your list or you don't there is no such thing as a "productivity advantage that factors into effective number of pilots for integration calculations". You had better take a look at your ALPA merger policy and see what it says about hypothethical pilots for integration. If any of your union reps are telling you this now you might as well recall them. If this is your standpoint over there you might as well plan on going to arbitration. It worked out so well for US Air in that regard.

Don't get your double breasted panties in a twist. There are actual pilots on the property, and then there are modifiers to that baseline for integration calculation puposes. If DAL pilots are flying for example an avg. of 70 hrs. a month, and NWA pilots are flying 90, there is 22% productivity difference between groups. In other words it would take 22 fewer DAL pilots out of 100 to fly the same block hours at NWA. Trust me, it factors. It'll be the respective merger comitees that hammer this out if it comes to it. Talk to them, not your Reps. We'd probably do better in a arbitration IMO.

 

[DAL737FO]

Don't get your double breasted panties in a twist. There are actual pilots on the property, and then there are modifiers to that baseline for integration calculation puposes. If DAL pilots are flying for example an avg. of 70 hrs. a month, and NWA pilots are flying 90, there is 22% productivity difference between groups. In other words it would take 22 fewer DAL pilots out of 100 to fly the same block hours at NWA. Trust me, it factors. It'll be the respective merger comitees that hammer this out if it comes to it. Talk to them, not your Reps. We'd probably do better in a arbitration IMO.

How funny. NWA merger committee rep to arbitrator:

"I know our list only has 5,000 pilots on it, however we want to be credited with 6,000 pilots because we are more productive"

Good luck with that.

If that is your plan for a merger then it will go to arbitration, regardless of who you might be merging with.

 

[Fly4hire]

How funny. NWA merger committee rep to arbitrator:

"I know our list only has 5,000 pilots on it, however we want to be credited with 6,000 pilots because we are more productive"

Whatever. If you think it's going to be apples to oranges because that's to your advantage think again. It will be apples to apples. Re: arbitration - this is no USAir/AMW mismatch. You might not like what you get.

The only thing for sure is it's not going to be decided here. Here's a traveling tip though: start getting over about how good, big, better you think you are, and it has nothing to do with what Moak or Anderson say in PR bites.

 

[Speedbird34]

Hopefully this two pilot groups do not merge. I believe the pilots are totally opposite in personality. Look at the fight that the Northwest dude is already starting.
I get the feeling that Northwest guys believe that what management says goes as regards mergers, contract etc with some exceptions. That is a very bad attitude. The feeling that Pilots have no say in their future.
Folks you are the long term employee in your company. You spend 30 yrs plus there. the Manager spends 5 yrs there. it is more your future than the manager.
Delta Pilots know this fact. A great group of guys who stand up for what is right even if it cost them their careers. Look how many of those guys quit during the difficult times to preserve their honor.
To Delta Pilots I salute you and to those weakboned Northwest dudes who give the rest a bad image. Get a backbone.

 

[WSurf]

Delta Pilots know this fact. A great group of guys who stand up for what is right even if it cost them their careers. Look how many of those guys quit during the difficult times to preserve their honor.
To Delta Pilots I salute you and to those weakboned Northwest dudes who give the rest a bad image. Get a backbone.

They didn't quit during difficult times to preserve their honor. They Quit to get them Lump Sum of money because they thought there pension was about to go away! Wake up alice your still in wonderland. LOL

 

[G4G5]

I love these pilot estimates, what happens when the DC9's start going away and nothing comes back? Compass?

 

[Diesel-9]

Speedbird34 Dude. Over the past 20+ years the I would say the NWA group has done more that their share of having backbone. Since I have been alive I think NWA leads DAL in strikes by a 5-0 count. Wasn't NWA that allowed the large RJ numbers to take mainline flying and ripple through the industry. I think DAL has lost approx. 4000 mainline jobs because of senior pilot's getting/taking theirs and sacrificing the junior guy.. The two groups were hiring applicants that were mirror images of each other in the 80's and 90's when I came into this industry. The difference being each company leaning strongly toward the introverted/extroverted personalities that fit each culture. Still think NWA is preparing for something other than DAL. If it is that, the groups are similar in size and each bring huge international systems with little overlap. NWA and it hundreds of weekly slots all over Asia where the future growth is the next 50 years is huge and must remain/fly under NWA Inc. NWA has a poison pill, DAL doesn't. Would not be surprised if it would be a date of hire merger, base freezes, or even have each group move up their own list of slots as guys retire from their respective lists. That would keep the guys at DAL happy who have moved up the list ahead of any expectations they ever had as the senior guys bailed out the last few years. http://www.amazon.com/Airline-Witho...es-Debunking-Myth/dp/0934601550/ref=sid_dp_dp

 

[Fly4hire]

Hopefully this two pilot groups do not merge. I believe the pilots are totally opposite in personality. Look at the fight that the Northwest dude is already starting.
I get the feeling that Northwest guys believe that what management says goes as regards mergers, contract etc with some exceptions. That is a very bad attitude. The feeling that Pilots have no say in their future.

You don't know what the you are talking about. This has nothing to do with NW management, or starting a fight. As far as Kool-Aid, is see a lot more drinking of it from your new CEO than we ever do. I agree with you that the best outcome would be no merger.

The attitude that has been prevalent here is that DAL will buy, and to the victor goes the spoils, and the NW pilots should simply be glad to wear a DAL uniform.

Ain't so boys. Any integration is going to be complex, convoluted, and painful process. I hear way too much banter about this and that advantage the DAL boys have, and how tough their MEC is. Yawn. Productivity IS a factor, as is a myriad of other things. Our old DC9's going away? They are still there. How's about DAL DC9-80's? Doesn't NW own a major share in another DC9 operator - MEH. Where do you think that will factor in in the event of a merger?

Lot's of moving pieces, and tough talk here or in the press does not an integration make.......

You better hope you get hired at one of the 2 soon Speedbird - one place I would not want to be when the Titans clash is as a feeder affiliate.

 

[Diesel-9]

Another book on DAL for those interested. Written after the above book in my previous post. http://www.amazon.com/Airline-Without-Pilot-Leadership-Bankruptcy/dp/0977207609/ref=sid_dp_dp

 

[Sedona16]

You don't know what the you are talking about. This has nothing to do with NW management, or starting a fight. As far as Kool-Aid, is see a lot more drinking of it from your new CEO than we ever do. I agree with you that the best outcome would be no merger.

The attitude that has been prevalent here is that DAL will buy, and to the victor goes the spoils, and the NW pilots should simply be glad to wear a DAL uniform.

Ain't so boys. Any integration is going to be complex, convoluted, and painful process. I hear way too much banter about this and that advantage the DAL boys have, and how tough their MEC is. Yawn. Productivity IS a factor, as is a myriad of other things. Our old DC9's going away? They are still there. How's about DAL DC9-80's? Doesn't NW own a major share in another DC9 operator - MEH. Where do you think that will factor in in the event of a merger?

Lot's of moving pieces, and tough talk here or in the press does not an integration make.......

You better hope you get hired at one of the 2 soon Speedbird - one place I would not want to be when the Titans clash is as a feeder affiliate.

A word of advise. Coming on here posting how through "productivity" you get a leg up, true or not its just irritating to the Delta pilots. Do you want to turn this into another ugly AWA/USA? I would suggest keeping some if not all of this to yourself. If it turns into WWIII as it has at USA then all will lose in the end.

 

[WSurf]

A word of advise. Coming on here posting how through "productivity" you get a leg up, true or not its just irritating to the Delta pilots. Do you want to turn this into another ugly AWA/USA? I would suggest keeping some if not all of this to yourself. If it turns into WWIII as it has at USA then all will lose in the end.

Yea, don't let out any secrets that could make this airline industry any worse.

 

[Fly4hire]

A word of advise. Coming on here posting how through "productivity" you get a leg up, true or not its just irritating to the Delta pilots. Do you want to turn this into another ugly AWA/USA? I would suggest keeping some if not all of this to yourself. If it turns into WWIII as it has at USA then all will lose in the end.

Sedona,

Nothing said here is original, nor secret. I'm sure each MEC, Merger, Negotiating Cmte is doing lots of war gaming, and has considered every possible angle, advantage. There will be much hate and discontent no matter what is agreed to, if anything is. JMO opinion but it will probably end up in arbitration any ways unless there is some serious give and take on both sides. FWIW, the AWA/USA comparison is way off - DAL/NWA are far too close in size, scale and composition than the aforementioned, which is why this, if it happens, is not going to be near as cut and dry as some might assume.

Here's to hoping it doesn't happen at all........

 

[NuGuy]

The attitude that has been prevalent here is that DAL will buy, and to the victor goes the spoils, and the NW pilots should simply be glad to wear a DAL uniform.

Heyas,

Nope...it's gonna be NWA/CAL.

NWA is master of the last minute, unexpected move. They snatched CAL from DAL in 98, and MEH from AAI in 07, both at the very last minute, and AFTER everyone said "yup, it's a done deal".

The one thing NWA knows how to do is annoy people: customers, competitors and employees alike.

Nu

 

[General Lee]

You don't know what the you are talking about. This has nothing to do with NW management, or starting a fight. As far as Kool-Aid, is see a lot more drinking of it from your new CEO than we ever do. I agree with you that the best outcome would be no merger.

The attitude that has been prevalent here is that DAL will buy, and to the victor goes the spoils, and the NW pilots should simply be glad to wear a DAL uniform.

Ain't so boys. Any integration is going to be complex, convoluted, and painful process. I hear way too much banter about this and that advantage the DAL boys have, and how tough their MEC is. Yawn. Productivity IS a factor, as is a myriad of other things. Our old DC9's going away? They are still there. How's about DAL DC9-80's? Doesn't NW own a major share in another DC9 operator - MEH. Where do you think that will factor in in the event of a merger?

Lot's of moving pieces, and tough talk here or in the press does not an integration make.......

You better hope you get hired at one of the 2 soon Speedbird - one place I would not want to be when the Titans clash is as a feeder affiliate.

The reason Delta has to be the buyer is because most of the employees are NON union, and if Delta were the buyer they would implement a seniority merger, vs a staple job from the NWA unions.

Will this merger or acquisition happen? I have no idea. But if there has to be mergers, then I think DAL and NWA would be a good fit thanks to lack of significant overlap. Sure, the fleets aren't very close, but Delta had 13 different fleet types at one point, so a few more from the current 6 or 7 would not be too bad. Again, I hope we stay independant, but if we have to do something, then NWA would be the best fit.

And you NWA guys would LOVE to get our rules---no 5 day crappy trips that start with one leg the first day worth 1 hour to MDW. Your DC9s will leave your property before our MD88s leave ours most likely too. Yeah, yeah, I know you say you will park the 787s and then fly a DC9 home, but I think the gas guzlers, along with the 742s (744s will probably replace your 74Fs), are soon to be gone. We have already parked the planes we planned to park (732s, MD11s, 733s, etc).


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Heyas,

Nope...it's gonna be NWA/CAL.

NWA is master of the last minute, unexpected move. They snatched CAL from DAL in 98, and MEH from AAI in 07, both at the very last minute, and AFTER everyone said "yup, it's a done deal".

The one thing NWA knows how to do is annoy people: customers, competitors and employees alike.

Nu

That would be good. We could buy Alaska and have good West Coast feed.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Fly4hire]

Will this merger or acquisition happen? I have no idea. But if there has to be mergers, then I think DAL and NWA would be a good fit thanks to lack of significant overlap. Sure, the fleets aren't very close, but Delta had 13 different fleet types at one point, so a few more from the current 6 or 7 would not be too bad. Again, I hope we stay independent, but if we have to do something, then NWA would be the best fit.

And you NWA guys would LOVE to get our rules---no 5 day crappy trips that start with one leg the first day worth 1 hour to MDW. Your DC9s will leave your property before our MD88s leave ours most likely too. Yeah, yeah, I know you say you will park the 787s and then fly a DC9 home, but I think the gas guzlers, along with the 742s (744s will probably replace your 74Fs), are soon to be gone. We have already parked the planes we planned to park (732s, MD11s, 733s, etc).


Bye Bye--General Lee

General,

Happy New Year, and here's to no mergers.

I agree with much of what you say, but it is not ours to decide. The hedge funds and institutional investors are driving much of this, and we are not even counting the left field plays - JB, FNT,AK, that may in fact be the first dominoes to fall. There are too many pieces in play to make coherent sense, and the hedges may well drive a counter intuitive match up.

The only certain thing right now is that given the waning days of this administration, the good possibility of a Democratic WH to follow, and the DOJ approval time line for a consummated merger, I see this spring as the do-or-die for any potential deals to unfold. It's going to be an interesting year.....

I also agree with Nu Guy about NW doing something unanticipated and being the spoiler for everyone else.

 

[EdTeachLives!]

Fly4hire:

You are getting way to worked up.

Stop. Breath into a paper bag or something. NWA won't be merging with DAL anyway.

Start thinking, if you must, about how an LCC/NWA would work out. Or even CAL/NWA. Those are much more likely scenarios. A DAL merge is the worlds worst head fake.

Ed

 

[Jmoney]

Yep.....

That would be good. We could buy Alaska and have good West Coast feed.


Bye Bye--General Lee

As if any further evidence was needed to confirm that this idiot has lost his ever-loving mind!

BTW-West cost feed? Is that not called "Skywest?" And is that not cheaper than buying another major?

P.S.-Also a bit tough to wing that stuff when your stock is doing a great "brick from sky" impersonation!

 

[Kugelblitz]

As a general rule, never ask anyone about the future of their airline ( I recently saw a Skybus pilot rip someone for doubting their viability) for you will always find many pilots who have somehow convinced themselves that their airline is the place to be (i.e. I fly for CAL- a supposed place to be).

Good luck NWA, I suppose you will be alright, after the money poured into the DWA terminal and the imminent opening of MSP, I doubt you will be allowed to go out of business. You may however merge along the lines of TWA..............

 

[Fly4hire]

Good luck NWA, I suppose you will be alright, after the money poured into the DWA terminal and the imminent opening of MSP, I doubt you will be allowed to go out of business. You may however merge along the lines of TWA..............

Your arrogance will make your surprise and shock all that much more enjoyable.....

 

[General Lee]

As if any further evidence was needed to confirm that this idiot has lost his ever-loving mind!

BTW-West cost feed? Is that not called "Skywest?" And is that not cheaper than buying another major?

P.S.-Also a bit tough to wing that stuff when your stock is doing a great "brick from sky" impersonation!

Well, you and your boys at ASA got kicked out of SLC right quick, didn't you? When I say FEED, I mean actual mainline feed. We don't need anymore 50 seaters, which is mostly what SkyWest provides us on the West Coast. It is draining us. And, our stock has fallen from the $18 range when we came out of BK to the current $14 and change. Not as bad as Jetblue's, or USAir's. Look at Alaska's stock. You need to think before you type, really. And what wwe need is revenue, not just "cheap feed" from SkyWest. We need to actually make money, not get by. Alaska does well on the entire West Coast, and that is valuable to anyone. Have fun in Brunswick.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[dojetdriver]

Well, you and your boys at ASA got kicked out of SLC right quick, didn't you? When I say FEED, I mean actual mainline feed. We don't need anymore 50 seaters, which is mostly what SkyWest provides us on the West Coast. It is draining us.

Bye Bye--General Lee

Is that why YOUR management wants more 50 seat aircraft from ExpressJet?

Also, it wasn't until just recently, but SkyWest was not allowed to operate in and out of LAX (you know, the west coast) as DelCon. I believe the LAX-SLC was an exception.