Future Of Nwa?????

[737 Pylt]

As if any further evidence was needed to confirm that this idiot has lost his ever-loving mind!

BTW-West cost feed? Is that not called "Skywest?" And is that not cheaper than buying another major?

P.S.-Also a bit tough to wing that stuff when your stock is doing a great "brick from sky" impersonation!

Hey einstein, have you taken a look lately? Everyone's stock is in the dumper!

737

 

[michael707767]

There are actual pilots on the property, and then there are modifiers to that baseline for integration calculation puposes. If DAL pilots are flying for example an avg. of 70 hrs. a month, and NWA pilots are flying 90, there is 22% productivity difference between groups.

Not a factor. Keep in mind, any merger will generate negotiations for a new contract. Are you telling me the NWA pilots would want to keep their current work rules?

And by the way, the NWA cannot average flying 90 hours a month when the yearly limit is 1000. If you want to tell me the NWA pilots average 90 pay hours a month, thats a different story. But then you get down to only being a couple of hours above what the Delta pilots are in pay hours a month.

Oh, and what kind of modifier will we use to compensate for the fact that the NWA DC-9s would be parked the next day in a DL/NW merger?

 

[General Lee]

Not a factor. Keep in mind, any merger will generate negotiations for a new contract. Are you telling me the NWA pilots would want to keep their current work rules?

And by the way, the NWA cannot average flying 90 hours a month when the yearly limit is 1000. If you want to tell me the NWA pilots average 90 pay hours a month, thats a different story. But then you get down to only being a couple of hours above what the Delta pilots are in pay hours a month.

Oh, and what kind of modifier will we use to compensate for the fact that the NWA DC-9s would be parked the next day in a DL/NW merger?

Well, the NWA pilots would probably like to fence out their 744s from Delta pilots, I think we could fence out the DC9s--if they are parked, those people are thrown to Compass. Fences can work both ways. This is if it happens at all.

Bye Bye-General Lee

 

[ThisistheDream]

If the NWA DAL deal where to become a mutual MERGER and not a buy out, how could that effect the merging of the lists? Since both groups are ALPA would you mostly go by date of hire since it was a merger and not a buyout? the AWA USairways was a merger not a buyout from what i remember?

 

[General Lee]

If the NWA DAL deal where to become a mutual MERGER and not a buy out, how could that effect the merging of the lists? Since both groups are ALPA would you mostly go by date of hire since it was a merger and not a buyout? the AWA USairways was a merger not a buyout from what i remember?

As far as the pilots go, since ALPA is at both carriers, ALPA merger policy would probably be applied, with fences. For the rest of the employees though, there are no other unions at Delta, so Delta would probably be the acquirer to make sure the other employees aren't stapled to the bottom. Also, most articles I have read project Delta as the agressor, and that is where most people think DL could possibly be the one doing the buying...? Who knows? Lot's of speculation going on, but I would much rather stay independant and pick up the pieces of others that do fall. We did go through BK and did get rid of a lot of debt and baggage (along with our pensions unfortunately and high pay rates), but we and NWA are better positioned now thanks to that. United went through the process too, but did not get rid of as much debt, and USAir/AWA are just a mess operationally and the employees aren't a happy bunch. It will be interesting to see what happens this year for sure.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[GogglesPisano]

Even the British are speculating. From the FT ...

Delta holds key to shape of US fleets

By Justin Baer in New York
Wednesday Jan 2 2008 15:50
This year could see consolidation in the US airlines industry, with the fate of Delta Air Lines (NYSEAL) likely to prove pivotal, executives, bankers and investors say.

Delta recently emerged from bankruptcy protection unencumbered by financial agreements that restrict some potential deals, and is not as big as, say, American Airlines parent AMR (NYSE:AMR) .

As a result, it features prominently in most consolidation scenarios concocted by industry insiders and shareholders alike.

The Atlanta-based carrier is working with its bankers at Merrill Lynch and Greenhill to review potential mergers. Delta's executives believe a merger would help the combined company save money and weather future downturns. But they are not convinced a deal is worth pursuing at all costs, given the challenges it would pose, from winning the approval of regulators and organised labour to combining complex operations, people familiar with their thinking said.

It may be months before the company decides whe*****ther to proceed, they added.

"There has been talk from one corner or another," said John Prater, president of the Air Line Pilots' Association, whose 60,000 members include pilots at Delta, United and Northwest (NASDAQ:NWAC) .

"Is there going to be consolidation? I think we're going to see some attempts."

Richard Anderson, Delta chief executive, fuelled merger speculation in October, when he said the company recognised the benefits of consolidation and planned to participate. His comments appeared to contradict Delta's stance earlier in the year, when it fought off a hostile bid from rival US Airways.

"Delta has said previously that its board has formed a special committee to work with management to review and analyse strategic options to ensure Delta maintains its leadership position in the industry, including potential consolidation transactions," the airline said in a statement.

"During this period we will not comment on any rumours or speculation regarding mergers or acquisitions."

Some of Delta's peers may have a harder time persuading antitrust regulators to approve any merger. Others would be challenged by existing relationships and financial arrangements. For instance, Northwest has the right to block a deal involving rival Continental Airlines.

Delta's greater flexibility is not lost on the investors who built positions in the company last year.

Pardus Capital Management, a hedge fund with more than 2 per cent of Delta and a 4.8 per cent stake in United parent UAL has said a Delta-United merger represents the best possible combination of large US airlines.

Airlines are bracing for a difficult year. The International Air Transport Association predicted that industrywide profit will slump this year amid record fuel costs and an expected slump in demand for air travel.

 

[ThisistheDream]

General Lee
So with possible fences in place, would that protect the DAL guys to have seniority over bidding the 777, 767 and then protect the NWA guys bidding the 747, 787 and A330?? I havent been involved in a merger with fences and not sure how they would really work? As far as career potential, I see a pilot at DAL and NWA close with similar size a/c with DAL having more overall wide body vs. NWA as of today, but with what NWA has on order with the widebody, the widebody fleet would be very close in size.

 

[General Lee]

General Lee
So with possible fences in place, would that protect the DAL guys to have seniority over bidding the 777, 767 and then protect the NWA guys bidding the 747, 787 and A330?? I havent been involved in a merger with fences and not sure how they would really work? As far as career potential, I see a pilot at DAL and NWA close with similar size a/c with DAL having more overall wide body vs. NWA as of today, but with what NWA has on order with the widebody, the widebody fleet would be very close in size.

First of all, I have never been involved in something like this, but I have watched some of this over the years. I think there would be fences on certain planes--planes that the other airline doesn't have. The 744s are the biggest thing out there(in America--no A380s here), and technically Delta guys never would have flown them ever since we don't have them or any orders for them. That would probably necessitate a fence for a few years. We have 777s and should get more, and we might fence them off for a couple years, as NWA would try to fence the 787s off too. I could see very little movement BETWEEN the fleets for a few years, even though you might move up within your original airline's fleet. There could also be base fences, and maybe a fence of DC9 guys if they remove the DC9s from service within the first 5 years etc.

We do have a lot more widebodies than NWA (and add the 120 757s we have an overall larger fleet in terms of size). Their 747-200s are slowly on the way out, and rumors of their 744s going to the Cargo size and being replaced with 787s on the pax side persist. The big worry over there is what will happen to the DC9s? Will they get replaced with a mainline type plane, like the E190 or 717? Or will Compass E175s take over the DC9s one for one towards the Compass side?

We also have had rumors here of getting more used MD90s on the INTL market (companies in China, Japan, and Saudi Arabia are replacing them with new A320s) for CHEAP---and they are nicer than the MD88s and fairly economical (along with a total $9 million pricetag with engines included). They would have not replaced any MD88s, since they themselves were recently renegotiated for in BK for cheap--($80,000 a month lease down from $280,000). So, the MD90s could help expansion too if we want them, and we already have a sim and the mx expertise to fly them. A lot of that is on hold now so we can see what happens.

Overall, I think a DL acquistion of NWA might be a good thing for survival purposes, since we would really cover the WORLD for INTL connections, and we would have a solid domestic platform. I think a couple of the current bases would be made into "focus cities" (CVG and MEM thanks to their proximity to other larger hubs--DTW and ATL), but not dismantled due to local political opposition and allowing LCCs the opportunity to set up new hubs. Will any of this really happen? Only a few people know that for sure right now.

Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Superpilot92]

First of all, I have never been involved in something like this, but I have watched some of this over the years. I think there would be fences on certain planes--planes that the other airline doesn't have. The 744s are the biggest thing out there(in America--no A380s here), and technically Delta guys never would have flown them ever since we don't have them or any orders for them. That would probably necessitate a fence for a few years. We have 777s and should get more, and we might fence them off for a couple years, as NWA would try to fence the 787s off too. I could see very little movement BETWEEN the fleets for a few years, even though you might move up within your original airline's fleet. There could also be base fences, and maybe a fence of DC9 guys if they remove the DC9s from service within the first 5 years etc.

We do have a lot more widebodies than NWA (and add the 120 757s we have an overall larger fleet in terms of size). Their 747-200s are slowly on the way out, and rumors of their 744s going to the Cargo size and being replaced with 787s on the pax side persist. The big worry over there is what will happen to the DC9s? Will they get replaced with a mainline type plane, like the E190 or 717? Or will Compass E175s take over the DC9s one for one towards the Compass side?

We also have had rumors here of getting more used MD90s on the INTL market (companies in China, Japan, and Saudi Arabia are replacing them with new A320s) for CHEAP---and they are nicer than the MD88s and fairly economical (along with a total $9 million pricetag with engines included). They would have not replaced any MD88s, since they themselves were recently renegotiated for in BK for cheap--($80,000 a month lease down from $280,000). So, the MD90s could help expansion too if we want them, and we already have a sim and the mx expertise to fly them. A lot of that is on hold now so we can see what happens.

Overall, I think a DL acquistion of NWA might be a good thing for survival purposes, since we would really cover the WORLD for INTL connections, and we would have a solid domestic platform. I think a couple of the current bases would be made into "focus cities" (CVG and MEM thanks to their proximity to other larger hubs--DTW and ATL), but not dismantled due to local political opposition and allowing LCCs the opportunity to set up new hubs. Will any of this really happen? Only a few people know that for sure right now.

Bye Bye--General Lee

As far as I know the regional feed is limited to only 18 more aircraft orders per the contract. If more aircraft were to go to a regional feeder NWA would have to take on more aircraft. Anyone have any more info on that?

 

[NuGuy]

As far as I know the regional feed is limited to only 18 more aircraft orders per the contract. If more aircraft were to go to a regional feeder NWA would have to take on more aircraft. Anyone have any more info on that?

Heyas,

Basically correct.

The "narrowbody floor" gets set in 2 months, and after that they are committed (well, as much as management ever is).

They can't arbitrarily park the 9s without something to replace them.

Nu

 

[PCL_128]

For the rest of the employees though, there are no other unions at Delta, so Delta would probably be the acquirer to make sure the other employees aren't stapled to the bottom.

New legislation that's on the way to the President, and likely to be signed, would eliminate that problem anyway. The ALG/Mohawk LPPs are going to be made law, even for non-union employee groups. So that likely won't be an issue that affects which carrier is the acquirer.

 

[jetflier]

IMHO Compass Airlines could not be a replacement for all the NWA DC-9's because the DC-9 -50 is 124 pax and there is about 50 of them. The rest of the DC-9's are 100 pax, still 24 more pax than Compass ERJ's.

Unless Compass operates a larger bird and SCOPE permits a larger aircraft, the DC-9's will be around untill a mainline replacement happens.

That replacement could very well be the EMB 190.
Unfortunately, NWAALPA agreed to a pay scale for that aircraft during our contract negotiations. The pay scale for the EMB 190 is similar to the regional pay rates at other regional carriers.

If that happened, NWA would be jamming another pay cut down the throats of the NWA pilots.

 

[Fly4hire]

For the rest of the employees though, there are no other unions at Delta, so Delta would probably be the acquirer to make sure the other employees aren't stapled to the bottom. Also, most articles I have read project Delta as the aggressor, and that is where most people think DL could possibly be the one doing the buying...? Bye Bye--General Lee

That's pretty funny - this is being driven by the hedge funds and WS - do you think they even care if there is an airline left as long as they make big $$ on the transaction?

Also I would rethink some of the "urban myth" assumptions that DAL will be the aquirer and you will divide the spoils. NWA enjoys a substantial cost advantage over DAL - any deal will be to keep the unit costs for the combined unit lower, not raise it. Contracts will have to be reopened - do you think DAL will want to add 5600 pilots at a higher cost? I suggest you compare put and call options for DAL vs. NWA in early 08', and consider that shares can go up for the acquired and down for the aquirerer......Like water, the costs will favor a roll down hill.

As to parking the DC9's I would not be so sure - we have restructured the fleet just like you have, and most of the 9's remaining will be 110-124 seat 40's and 50's, make lots of revenue, and fly very full. A -88, -90, etc is still a (142 seat) DC9, same type, and needs nothing more than a day of differences to integrate the pilots into the fleet. The fact they are old is immaterial - they are paid for, profitable, flexible, and despite the veneer analysts mantra in the press, there is no excess capacity.

If you don't think there will be integration modifiers so that they are comparing apples to apples you are fooling yourselves. That would be like us saying it's DOH or nothing. Not going to happen.

Another factor is the feeds - how will they factor in? If you count DAL's feeds vs. NW's (and possible MEH), suddenly the DAL family mix vs. the NW family mix skews considerably.

Regardless, it follow the money, not what's good for you, me, the operation or the employees.

 

[Speedbird34]

Fly4hire there you go again saying the employees have no say in what happens to them. Hedge funds decide our future. DC9 and MD88 diffrences takes one day. One day diffrences. Have you ever flown an MD 88. It would take me 10 yrs to learn to fly that piece of scrap called a DC9. You know why I would hate sitting in the flightdeck. That is the reason I never want to work at NWA. That and also the attitude of the DC9 pilots, FA and gate agents who hate Pinnacle pilots and most other pilots. It would make me sick to my stomach to spend days on a flight deck with such negative people. Life is too short to be wasted listening to dudes like FLY4HIRE telling me I have no say over my life and future. So I make sure I go to a great company with employees who have good attitudes and I sincerely hope it does not get contaminants from Northwest.
But maybe once a merger occurs Northwest employees will become happy. I do feel their terrible attitude is related to their bad contracts. Filty blankets in first class, alchoholic FA who steal drinks off the airplane and treat jumpseaters like trash. what a trashy atmosphere. The only class you find at Northwest is the Pilots. The gate agents tell you that a flight with 40 empty seats is full.
I see no way Northwest could merge with anyone! It has a culture unto it self. Delta Pilots pray you never merge or get ready to be treated like trash by everyone and everyone in Northwest. What a nightmarish thought becoming part of Northwest. I would rather fly king airs in Timbuctu or work at a regional any day. More classy folks.
There is a reason very few pilots apply to work at Northwest. The people suck!!!!

 

[Fly4hire]

Hedge funds decide our future.

They are driving the merger fever, not the airline managements. They are going to do what they can regardless of the employees. If we can stop them great, but we are not any consideration to them other than getting in the way of them profit taking.

DC9 and MD88 diffrences takes one day. One day diffrences. Have you ever flown an MD 88. It would take me 10 yrs to learn to fly that piece of scrap called a DC9.

Flown both extensively. Easy transition to the DC9-80 series. I agree it would be much more time consuming to go the other way.

That and also the attitude of the DC9 pilots, FA and gate agents who hate Pinnacle pilots and most other pilots. It would make me sick to my stomach to spend days on a flight deck with such negative people

Oh I see. Did you get rejected by NWA? I enjoy my job as do most of the crews I work with. There are negative people with victim mentality everywhere - like you.

What a nightmarish thought becoming part of Northwest. I would rather fly king airs in Timbuctu or work at a regional any day.

I have a feeling you are.