Future Of Nwa?????

[N813CA]

Is there one? Or do you see a merger and furlough?

 

[Fly4hire]

Is there one? Or do you see a merger and furlough?

Very bright future. NWA will need 2-3000 additional pilots as a result of 787 alone. If we merge we have a substantial productivity advantage that factors into effective number of pilots for integration calculations (however you do it) that evens the playing field even with the usual suspect larger carriers. We have large numbers of older pilots, who 65 or not will be retiring in the next 10 years.

 

[contrail67]

2-3000 just for the 787??? How many are you suppose to get?

 

[IXLR8]

I'm thinking 200-300......typo

 

[xjhawk]

yeah, on the books for 18 solid orders, and options thereafter. It will be sought after plane by most companies, and they are already announcing delays for first deliveries. Guess what, it will be real hard to get more of those 787's. Oh, and I would think even though NWA is the launch customer here in the US, I do not think it has the most orders. So given NWA's past history with Boeing, it will not be high on the list to be getting those additional orders. I am referring to NWA giving their last big contract to airbus (32 A330's instead of the B777) and before that, ordering 100's of 320's instead of 737's. I might be wrong, but I would think that might have something to do with ordering airplanes.....but them money talks. Not to mention, I am someone who will be the first to say I am not an expert on this deal

 

[Fly4hire]

yeah, on the books for 18 solid orders, and options thereafter. It will be sought after plane by most companies, and they are already announcing delays for first deliveries. Guess what, it will be real hard to get more of those 787's. Oh, and I would think though NWA is the launch customer here in the US, I do not think it has the most orders.

18 orders, 50 options. The question you need to ask is where are those options executable? If they are production line, head of the line options they can tie up deliveries for other carriers who were not first in line. Think about the strategic ramifications of NWA having almost a monopoly on the US flag carriers with a fleet of up to 68 787's enjoying 30% plus fuel savings on their international routes while no other flag carrier other than CAL has even ordered yet, for a 5 yr plus wait.

As to crews, we crew at 7 crews/acft for ~1000 on the 787, plus retirements and there is your 2-3K pilots over the next 5 yrs

 

[Green Banana]

Very bright future. NWA will need 2-3000 additional pilots as a result of 787 alone..

I believe the number is closer to "2"

 

[DAL737FO]

Very bright future. NWA will need 2-3000 additional pilots as a result of 787 alone. If we merge we have a substantial productivity advantage that factors into effective number of pilots for integration calculations (however you do it) that evens the playing field even with the usual suspect larger carriers. We have large numbers of older pilots, who 65 or not will be retiring in the next 10 years.

Either you have pilots on your list or you don't there is no such thing as a "productivity advantage that factors into effective number of pilots for integration calculations". You had better take a look at your ALPA merger policy and see what it says about hypothethical pilots for integration. If any of your union reps are telling you this now you might as well recall them. If this is your standpoint over there you might as well plan on going to arbitration. It worked out so well for US Air in that regard.

 

[Fly4hire]

Either you have pilots on your list or you don't there is no such thing as a "productivity advantage that factors into effective number of pilots for integration calculations". You had better take a look at your ALPA merger policy and see what it says about hypothethical pilots for integration. If any of your union reps are telling you this now you might as well recall them. If this is your standpoint over there you might as well plan on going to arbitration. It worked out so well for US Air in that regard.

Don't get your double breasted panties in a twist. There are actual pilots on the property, and then there are modifiers to that baseline for integration calculation puposes. If DAL pilots are flying for example an avg. of 70 hrs. a month, and NWA pilots are flying 90, there is 22% productivity difference between groups. In other words it would take 22 fewer DAL pilots out of 100 to fly the same block hours at NWA. Trust me, it factors. It'll be the respective merger comitees that hammer this out if it comes to it. Talk to them, not your Reps. We'd probably do better in a arbitration IMO.

 

[DAL737FO]

Don't get your double breasted panties in a twist. There are actual pilots on the property, and then there are modifiers to that baseline for integration calculation puposes. If DAL pilots are flying for example an avg. of 70 hrs. a month, and NWA pilots are flying 90, there is 22% productivity difference between groups. In other words it would take 22 fewer DAL pilots out of 100 to fly the same block hours at NWA. Trust me, it factors. It'll be the respective merger comitees that hammer this out if it comes to it. Talk to them, not your Reps. We'd probably do better in a arbitration IMO.

How funny. NWA merger committee rep to arbitrator:

"I know our list only has 5,000 pilots on it, however we want to be credited with 6,000 pilots because we are more productive"

Good luck with that.

If that is your plan for a merger then it will go to arbitration, regardless of who you might be merging with.

 

[Fly4hire]

How funny. NWA merger committee rep to arbitrator:

"I know our list only has 5,000 pilots on it, however we want to be credited with 6,000 pilots because we are more productive"

Whatever. If you think it's going to be apples to oranges because that's to your advantage think again. It will be apples to apples. Re: arbitration - this is no USAir/AMW mismatch. You might not like what you get.

The only thing for sure is it's not going to be decided here. Here's a traveling tip though: start getting over about how good, big, better you think you are, and it has nothing to do with what Moak or Anderson say in PR bites.

 

[Speedbird34]

Hopefully this two pilot groups do not merge. I believe the pilots are totally opposite in personality. Look at the fight that the Northwest dude is already starting.
I get the feeling that Northwest guys believe that what management says goes as regards mergers, contract etc with some exceptions. That is a very bad attitude. The feeling that Pilots have no say in their future.
Folks you are the long term employee in your company. You spend 30 yrs plus there. the Manager spends 5 yrs there. it is more your future than the manager.
Delta Pilots know this fact. A great group of guys who stand up for what is right even if it cost them their careers. Look how many of those guys quit during the difficult times to preserve their honor.
To Delta Pilots I salute you and to those weakboned Northwest dudes who give the rest a bad image. Get a backbone.

 

[WSurf]

Delta Pilots know this fact. A great group of guys who stand up for what is right even if it cost them their careers. Look how many of those guys quit during the difficult times to preserve their honor.
To Delta Pilots I salute you and to those weakboned Northwest dudes who give the rest a bad image. Get a backbone.

They didn't quit during difficult times to preserve their honor. They Quit to get them Lump Sum of money because they thought there pension was about to go away! Wake up alice your still in wonderland. LOL

 

[G4G5]

I love these pilot estimates, what happens when the DC9's start going away and nothing comes back? Compass?

 

[Diesel-9]

Speedbird34 Dude. Over the past 20+ years the I would say the NWA group has done more that their share of having backbone. Since I have been alive I think NWA leads DAL in strikes by a 5-0 count. Wasn't NWA that allowed the large RJ numbers to take mainline flying and ripple through the industry. I think DAL has lost approx. 4000 mainline jobs because of senior pilot's getting/taking theirs and sacrificing the junior guy.. The two groups were hiring applicants that were mirror images of each other in the 80's and 90's when I came into this industry. The difference being each company leaning strongly toward the introverted/extroverted personalities that fit each culture. Still think NWA is preparing for something other than DAL. If it is that, the groups are similar in size and each bring huge international systems with little overlap. NWA and it hundreds of weekly slots all over Asia where the future growth is the next 50 years is huge and must remain/fly under NWA Inc. NWA has a poison pill, DAL doesn't. Would not be surprised if it would be a date of hire merger, base freezes, or even have each group move up their own list of slots as guys retire from their respective lists. That would keep the guys at DAL happy who have moved up the list ahead of any expectations they ever had as the senior guys bailed out the last few years. http://www.amazon.com/Airline-Witho...es-Debunking-Myth/dp/0934601550/ref=sid_dp_dp