Virgin America Revenue...

[TCBKING]

I see V.A. has lost alot of money since they Began flying.. (661 mil since Aug 2007). Is that due to startup costs? Do you think they will start making money soon?

 

[jayme]

Management is predicting a profit for 2012, just like they predicted a profit for 2011 and that didn't work out so well. For exact numbers, Fubijaakr is probably the best autthority. I'm sure he'll chime in soon.

Our unit revenue is approaching industry average, and our unit cost is coming down. The problem is how expensive and time-consuming it is to install our fancy interiors. They take about 30 days, during which we pay for the airplane to sit idle, and the installation. Then we put it on a new route that we have to discount heavily to get people to try it. All of our routes that are at least a year old are actually profitable, but the 5 or so new routes and the down-time for airplane mods overcame that profit and we posted big losses. Next year we are looking at adding only 2 cities. If all 16 "mature" routes are profitable next year too, we should be in decent shape.

 

[Fubijaakr]

Or as long as you get Sir Dick to keep pouring cash down the rathole.

 

[TCBKING]

Great Info Jayme.. Thanks..

As for the other dick with nothing but horrible things to say about your company, Its pretty obvious he has nothing worthy to say. It makes it pretty easy to ignore him, to get the info i need. Thanks again

 

[Fubijaakr]

Great. Another RJ wanna be.

 

[jayme]

I have him on "ignore." It makes it easier to avoid the self-loathing that I used to feel after getting sucked into a "debate" with him. You know... that "arguing with a fool" saying?

 

[NEDude]

Or as long as you get Sir Dick to keep pouring cash down the rathole.

Thanks for chiming in with your same old tired mantra. Can you at least try to come up with something new? Or would that strain your brain too much?

 

[jayme]

VA just announced a $16 million operating profit, $3 million net loss for the 3rd qtr.

 

[Fubijaakr]

Nice. Another net loss.

 

[ualdriver]

Management is predicting a profit for 2012, just like they predicted a profit for 2011 and that didn't work out so well. For exact numbers, Fubijaakr is probably the best autthority. I'm sure he'll chime in soon.

Our unit revenue is approaching industry average, and our unit cost is coming down. The problem is how expensive and time-consuming it is to install our fancy interiors. They take about 30 days, during which we pay for the airplane to sit idle, and the installation. Then we put it on a new route that we have to discount heavily to get people to try it. All of our routes that are at least a year old are actually profitable, but the 5 or so new routes and the down-time for airplane mods overcame that profit and we posted big losses. Next year we are looking at adding only 2 cities. If all 16 "mature" routes are profitable next year too, we should be in decent shape.

Sorry, the problems Virgin has ARE NOT due to putting in aircraft interiors. Every airline bears that cost. United is completely redesigning their first and business class product, but that doesn't mean the whole airline loses money. There are deep, structural issues at Virgin that are broken. For the 9 months ending Sept 30, you guys had a net loss of 70M on 760M of revenue. You lost money on what should be your strongest quarter. I was very surprised someone was willing to loan Virgin 150M. It is either at a sky high interest rate or it has so many strings attached to it that it would make your CFO look like one of those old time string puppets.

Guys, when the other airlines start hiring in 2012 with retirements and such, GET OUT while you can. You might think I am the biggest tool on the forum, but the numbers don't lie. Go on your website and go to the about us section on the website then look at your most recent press release. Look at the Consolidated Statement of Operations. It is all easy math.

 

[Fubijaakr]

No, I (according to the Red Kool-Aid suckers) am the biggest tool. But, like you, I've tried to tell them the truth. They won't listen.

They're going to take over the skies with their new paradigm. I guess they could ask B6 guys how that works.

Its called getting sold a bill of goods. And they've swallowed it hook, line and sinker.

True believers...ya gotta love 'em.

 

[mxer]

UAL,
Fubi is absolutely and undeniably correct. I dont even care if my fellow VX pilots disagree with me. He is correct! He is THE biggest tool on the internet. Don't take offense though.

 

[Lake Alice]

Sorry, the problems Virgin has ARE NOT due to putting in aircraft interiors. Every airline bears that cost. United is completely redesigning their first and business class product, but that doesn't mean the whole airline loses money. There are deep, structural issues at Virgin that are broken. For the 9 months ending Sept 30, you guys had a net loss of 70M on 760M of revenue. You lost money on what should be your strongest quarter. I was very surprised someone was willing to loan Virgin 150M. It is either at a sky high interest rate or it has so many strings attached to it that it would make your CFO look like one of those old time string puppets.

Guys, when the other airlines start hiring in 2012 with retirements and such, GET OUT while you can. You might think I am the biggest tool on the forum, but the numbers don't lie. Go on your website and go to the about us section on the website then look at your most recent press release. Look at the Consolidated Statement of Operations. It is all easy math.

UAL is correct about the numbers and the numbers don't lie. It is also interesting the continuous infusion of cash.

 

[NEDude]

No, I (according to the Red Kool-Aid suckers) am the biggest tool. But, like you, I've tried to tell them the truth. They won't listen.

They're going to take over the skies with their new paradigm. I guess they could ask B6 guys how that works.

Its called getting sold a bill of goods. And they've swallowed it hook, line and sinker.

True believers...ya gotta love 'em.

Fubi and others

Virgin America may very well go the way of the dodo bird at some point. But so have hundreds of other airlines. Some airlines that people thought would never go away have gone, other people thought would die are still around. Nobody is predicting Virgin America's invincibility. Anyone who feels their pilot job is stable in this day and age is a fool. As someone who who has been furloughed three times (once from an ALPA carrier, once from a Teamsters carrier and once from a non-union carrier) I can speak to that with some authority. I don't believe there is one person at VX who is totally sold that we are going to be around for the long haul. Hoping we are, yes, totally sold on that fact, no.

That being said there are things that do not make sense in the financial reporting that do require some thought before rushing to judgement. Yes, a lot of money has been lost on the books. Yes it is frustrating. But can anyone explain how Virgin keeps getting financing and keeps expanding? Investors have been holding tight on to money over the last five years, yet somehow Virgin keeps finding money. As has been pointed out numerous times (although often with incorrect examples) Branson will cut and run if the numbers aren't working out. Yet he hasn't in this case. Why and how does Virgin keep getting the money to operate and expand? I don't know, but the only obvious explanation can be that someone who knows far more than myself and the rest of us on here, likes what they are seeing enough to keep financing things.

That all being said, if Virgin does die off at some point, myself and the rest of us will move on again, just like we have several times over. If it succeeds, all the better for us (and all the worse for our friends like Fubi).

 

[Lake Alice]

Fubi and others

Virgin America may very well go the way of the dodo bird at some point. But so have hundreds of other airlines. Some airlines that people thought would never go away have gone, other people thought would die are still around. Nobody is predicting Virgin America's invincibility. Anyone who feels their pilot job is stable in this day and age is a fool. As someone who who has been furloughed three times (once from an ALPA carrier, once from a Teamsters carrier and once from a non-union carrier) I can speak to that with some authority. I don't believe there is one person at VX who is totally sold that we are going to be around for the long haul. Hoping we are, yes, totally sold on that fact, no.

That being said there are things that do not make sense in the financial reporting that do require some thought before rushing to judgement. Yes, a lot of money has been lost on the books. Yes it is frustrating. But can anyone explain how Virgin keeps getting financing and keeps expanding? Investors have been holding tight on to money over the last five years, yet somehow Virgin keeps finding money. As has been pointed out numerous times (although often with incorrect examples) Branson will cut and run if the numbers aren't working out. Yet he hasn't in this case. Why and how does Virgin keep getting the money to operate and expand? I don't know, but the only obvious explanation can be that someone who knows far more than myself and the rest of us on here, likes what they are seeing enough to keep financing things.

That all being said, if Virgin does die off at some point, myself and the rest of us will move on again, just like we have several times over. If it succeeds, all the better for us (and all the worse for our friends like Fubi).

I can't speak for others but I'm not rooting for VX to go our of business. I'm hoping you raise your pay and benefits.

 

[ackattacker]

But can anyone explain how Virgin keeps getting financing and keeps expanding? Investors have been holding tight on to money over the last five years, yet somehow Virgin keeps finding money.

There is no mystery. Virgin keeps expanding because their financial situation is an unstable bubble and it's either expand or implode. There is no stable option so they must grow. So long as they are growing they can convince investors everything is OK and profitability is right around the corner. Maybe they are right. But I wouldn't put too much faith in the omniscient intelligence of corporate investors. There is plenty of money out there looking for a higher rate of return and willing to take big risks. If history has taught us one thing it's that people learn nothing from history.

 

[Lake Alice]

There is no mystery. Virgin keeps expanding because their financial situation is an unstable bubble and it's either expand or implode. There is no stable option so they must grow. So long as they are growing they can convince investors everything is OK and profitability is right around the corner. Maybe they are right. But I wouldn't put too much faith in the omniscient intelligence of corporate investors. There is plenty of money out there looking for a higher rate of return and willing to take big risks. If history has taught us one thing it's that people learn nothing from history.

I'm not sure you understand investing. Investors and analysts from Baker to Greene aren't swayed by expansion particularly when they read, as UAL pointed out, Virgins consolidated statement of operations. Hence why the 150 million infusion is such a mystery.

If you have the time reads Jetblue's investor relations. http://investor.jetblue.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=131045&p=irol-irhome Analysts are crushing Jetblue for expansion while others are retracting even though traffic increased, load factors increased and RASM increased 15% YoY.

There is no logical explanation for investing in Virgin America right now.

 

[ualdriver]

Yeah, I can explain while Virgin keeps getting money....people looking for yield in a low interest rate environment, people willing to take risk, people that think VA will be around long enough to pay THEM back but not necessarily others. And of course there is that quote in Hard Landings that basically stated that people with money just have a love affair with airlines and for some reason are always willing to throw money at them.

What might get interesting for VA pilot pay rates is if later this year the airlines really do start hiring. It is possible that there could be an exodus, particularly from the bottom half of the VA list which would basically force VA management to acknowledge the poor compensation package they offer their pilots. But they can't afford to pay a higher wage and in fact would need labor to take a 50% pay cut across the board just to currently break even. It could kind of turn into a labor death spiral.

That's why I say get out now. Get your apps out and your resumes up to date. There isn't much sense in riding it in unless VA is the best gig available to you.

 

[say again]

There isn't much sense in riding it in unless VA is the best gig available to you.

For some it's the only gig available!

 

[Lake Alice]

Thats the reason why Jetblue is in business.