Virgin America Revenue...

[ackattacker]

But can anyone explain how Virgin keeps getting financing and keeps expanding? Investors have been holding tight on to money over the last five years, yet somehow Virgin keeps finding money.

There is no mystery. Virgin keeps expanding because their financial situation is an unstable bubble and it's either expand or implode. There is no stable option so they must grow. So long as they are growing they can convince investors everything is OK and profitability is right around the corner. Maybe they are right. But I wouldn't put too much faith in the omniscient intelligence of corporate investors. There is plenty of money out there looking for a higher rate of return and willing to take big risks. If history has taught us one thing it's that people learn nothing from history.

 

[Lake Alice]

There is no mystery. Virgin keeps expanding because their financial situation is an unstable bubble and it's either expand or implode. There is no stable option so they must grow. So long as they are growing they can convince investors everything is OK and profitability is right around the corner. Maybe they are right. But I wouldn't put too much faith in the omniscient intelligence of corporate investors. There is plenty of money out there looking for a higher rate of return and willing to take big risks. If history has taught us one thing it's that people learn nothing from history.

I'm not sure you understand investing. Investors and analysts from Baker to Greene aren't swayed by expansion particularly when they read, as UAL pointed out, Virgins consolidated statement of operations. Hence why the 150 million infusion is such a mystery.

If you have the time reads Jetblue's investor relations. http://investor.jetblue.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=131045&p=irol-irhome Analysts are crushing Jetblue for expansion while others are retracting even though traffic increased, load factors increased and RASM increased 15% YoY.

There is no logical explanation for investing in Virgin America right now.

 

[ualdriver]

Yeah, I can explain while Virgin keeps getting money....people looking for yield in a low interest rate environment, people willing to take risk, people that think VA will be around long enough to pay THEM back but not necessarily others. And of course there is that quote in Hard Landings that basically stated that people with money just have a love affair with airlines and for some reason are always willing to throw money at them.

What might get interesting for VA pilot pay rates is if later this year the airlines really do start hiring. It is possible that there could be an exodus, particularly from the bottom half of the VA list which would basically force VA management to acknowledge the poor compensation package they offer their pilots. But they can't afford to pay a higher wage and in fact would need labor to take a 50% pay cut across the board just to currently break even. It could kind of turn into a labor death spiral.

That's why I say get out now. Get your apps out and your resumes up to date. There isn't much sense in riding it in unless VA is the best gig available to you.

 

[say again]

There isn't much sense in riding it in unless VA is the best gig available to you.

For some it's the only gig available!

 

[Lake Alice]

Thats the reason why Jetblue is in business.

 

[ualdriver]

For some it's the only gig available!

I mean if some decent airlines start hiring again with the up anand ccoming retirements starting up again. Maybe (just maybe) there will be some opportunities in the up and coming months. Once those opportunities start appearing, pull the handles hard.

 

[NEDude]

Yeah, I can explain while Virgin keeps getting money....people looking for yield in a low interest rate environment, people willing to take risk, people that think VA will be around long enough to pay THEM back but not necessarily others. And of course there is that quote in Hard Landings that basically stated that people with money just have a love affair with airlines and for some reason are always willing to throw money at them.

By this logic, most start-up airlines should have had people willing to invest despite losses. But that is not the case, the history books are filled with airlines who died because investors pulled the plug. Why, in very lean times, has Virgin continued to get capital while in more robust times, other airlines could not?

 

[Lake Alice]

I think you are missing his point. When Sky Bus went under interest rates were no where near todays rates. The original investors for Sky Bus/Indy etc and Virgin are vastly different. I don't think it's an easy comparison.

 

[ualdriver]

By this logic, most start-up airlines should have had people willing to invest despite losses. But that is not the case, the history books are filled with airlines who died because investors pulled the plug. Why, in very lean times, has Virgin continued to get capital while in more robust times, other airlines could not?

Because for whatever reason you're not there yet. No one knows what the trigger will be. Maybe it will be $150 oil. Maybe it will be a terrorist attack. Maybe it is the next economic downturn. Maybe one of your notes becomes due and you can't find anyone willing to reloan you the principal. Whatever the trigger becomes, you can't keep losing one dollar of every ten you bring in. Reading your press releases is like watching a slow motion train wreck. I can recognize it because I saw it my airline. One day, a note came due and they couldn't roll it. Why they could roll the one before and not that one is beyond my memory, but if you keep losing cash, one day you won't be able to get a new credit card. Hopefully for your guys you'll read about that day when you're on a layover for a different airline.

 

[Fubijaakr]

There is no mystery. Virgin keeps expanding because their financial situation is an unstable bubble and it's either expand or implode. There is no stable option so they must grow. So long as they are growing they can convince investors everything is OK and profitability is right around the corner. Maybe they are right. But I wouldn't put too much faith in the omniscient intelligence of corporate investors. There is plenty of money out there looking for a higher rate of return and willing to take big risks. If history has taught us one thing it's that people learn nothing from history.

This is a perfect analysis of VX and its place in the industry. Any of you ever heard of a ponzi scheme? That's all VX is...a giant aviation ponzi scheme.

 

[Fubijaakr]

For some it's the only gig available!

Thats the reason why Jetblue is in business.

Anyone who fits these criteria has no business being in the industry.

Whatever the trigger becomes, you can't keep losing one dollar of every ten you bring in. Reading your press releases is like watching a slow motion train wreck. I can recognize it because I saw it my airline.... if you keep losing cash, one day you won't be able to get a new credit card..

What is it about this simple economic theory guys like NEDoosh don't understand?

 

[NEDude]

Anyone who fits these criteria has no business being in the industry.



What is it about this simple economic theory guys like NEDoosh don't understand?

Name calling, the first, and last, resort of the weak minded. Thanks for proving that Fubi.

 

[Fubijaakr]

Just keeping up with you, NEDoosh.

 

[cmrflyer]

Fubi, you are a sad little chap.

 

[Fubijaakr]

You and NEDoosh can compare notes at Taco Bell.