Virgin America QOL

[bri5150]

I'm not seeing the "high reward" part of the high risk/high reward equation.

Really? The top 500ish at jetBlue aren't in a "high reward" spot? Who knows? Maybe we will be a 53 aircraft A320 operator with 20ish destinations for 30 years. I kinda doubt it though. If you can't see the high reward, I guess Virgin America isn't for you then. Dispite what I say here, I am a realist...the future is unknown for any airline. We could become the next Southwest and I will be top 500 there. We could shut down next year...I guarantee we won't make it through my career without some type of merger. That could be high reward or risk...who knows?

 

[Blue Dude]

Really? The top 500ish at jetBlue aren't in a "high reward" spot?

It's from my perspective as a "top 500ish at JetBlue" that allows me to say with some confidence that there is no "high reward" to this. It's very likely a career dead end. Sure, the paycheck still clears but that could all stop at any time - and we're making money. What do you think is in JetBlue's future in 1 year, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years? To retirement? Think it'll still be here and that lofty perch of sub-500 seniority will be worth anything?

Now ask those same questions in re VA and tell me that even if the company survives it'll be a sacrifice worth making. What's the end goal here anyway?

 

[Andy]

The information in your link is information that is from a quarter that ended 6 months ago. My comments are based on the information we have had an operational profit in the 4th quarter for the first time (not released) and 1st quarter is waaaaay better than 1st quarter last year and even better than their goals set for this year. Load factors are up (obviously depends on ticket price for revenue, but I don't have that info). It has been said over and over again that our investors want an operational profit, and that seems to be what we are getting now.

As I have said before, unless something goes drastically wrong it looks like we will make an operational profit for the year. This seems to be more than just management blowing hot air this time. The numbers from the last few quarters support it. We will NOT make a net profit, but the investors don't care. They are getting the money that we are losing as the net portion of the profit (loss).

Bri, Virgin America's management has proven time and again to be serial exaggerators (I will refrain from using a less complimentary description of them) when it comes to profitability. I previously posted that the very best case scenario that I could come up with was $10 million operating profit for the fourth quarter. Now that I've seen all of the quarter's load data, the very best case scenario that I can come up with is a $5 million operating profit (I'm still waiting to see your fourth quarter fuel costs, which I expect will be higher than the numbers I used). However, my realistic guess is that Virgin America will have an operating loss for the quarter. But the problem isn't with operating profit or loss, it's about available cash on hand. With almost $30 million per quarter in interest payments, Virgin America is rapidly running out of cash.


You mention that load factors are up. They certainly weren't up in the fourth quarter according to Virgin's DOT filings. Go to this link: Traffic statistics tool (scheduled service, 2000-present), includes Passengers, RPMs, ASMs, load factor, flights
Change carrier to 'Virgin America' and select 'load factor'


January's load factors haven't been published on that page yet but I've run some rough numbers based on another DOT report and it looks like Virgin's load factors in January were around 70%. I don't know how February and March are, but both fourth quarter and what I've seen for first quarter look worse than a year earlier.


Virgin may have gotten back ~$25 million from the sale/leaseback of their latest aircraft (Virgin had more than $40 million in progress payments on the latest aircraft that was delivered), but I don't see any other ways for Virgin to raise cash outside of another loan.


As far as current load factors, I've looked at Virgin's airfare sales over the last month and it looks like they're dumping a large percentage of seats at below cost on all routes. So while Virgin America may show decent loads, it doesn't mean much if they continue to dump most of their seats at well below cost.

 

[Flyer1015]

ualdriver, no one needs any convincing about VX, pilots should be mature enough to make their own decisions. Fact still remains there is no shortage of pilots who would like to work here, and many good guys haven't even gotten a call.

 

[ualdriver]

ualdriver, no one needs any convincing about VX, pilots should be mature enough to make their own decisions. Fact still remains there is no shortage of pilots who would like to work here, and many good guys haven't even gotten a call.

It has nothing to do with being "mature." There are a lot of posters on these forums who seem to imply or think that VA is rounding some sort of corner. There is NOTHING to indicate that whatsoever. If I was a VA pilot answering questions about possible employment I would preface each statement with a statement describing the precarious financial condition of the airline. That's only fair as many guys don't read 10Qs or DOT data. It would suck for a guy to leave a decent job only to have his new job at VA suddenly disappear due to the financial difficulties of the airline. It would suck even worse if a VA kool-aid drinker put his own desires to "cheerlead" ahead of a VA new hire's financial well being.

 

[jonjuan]

It has nothing to do with being "mature." There are a lot of posters on these forums who seem to imply or think that VA is rounding some sort of corner. There is NOTHING to indicate that whatsoever. If I was a VA pilot answering questions about possible employment I would preface each statement with a statement describing the precarious financial condition of the airline. That's only fair as many guys don't read 10Qs or DOT data. It would suck for a guy to leave a decent job only to have his new job at VA suddenly disappear due to the financial difficulties of the airline. It would suck even worse if a VA kool-aid drinker put his own desires to "cheerlead" ahead of a VA new hire's financial well being.

Yeah, but high risk means high reward. :nuts: :nuts: :laugh:

 

[Flyer1015]

It has nothing to do with being "mature." There are a lot of posters on these forums who seem to imply or think that VA is rounding some sort of corner. There is NOTHING to indicate that whatsoever. If I was a VA pilot answering questions about possible employment I would preface each statement with a statement describing the precarious financial condition of the airline. That's only fair as many guys don't read 10Qs or DOT data. It would suck for a guy to leave a decent job only to have his new job at VA suddenly disappear due to the financial difficulties of the airline. It would suck even worse if a VA kool-aid drinker put his own desires to "cheerlead" ahead of a VA new hire's financial well being.

And you'd make a career decision based on a flightinfo thread with cheerleaders vs doomsday sayers? As a VX pilot, I'm not going to preface any statement about the financial condition. Everyone is free to do their own research and I'm not going to join the doomsday club.

It would suck for a guy to leave a decent job only to have his new job at VA suddenly disappear due to the financial difficulties of the airline.

......and this is different at other airlines? Financial difficulties are and have always existed since deregulation. Take out "VA" and your statement reads true for thousands and thousands of pilots since 1978 deregulation. Welcome to the airline industry. If you are looking for career stability, you've already entered the wrong field.

It would suck even worse if a VA kool-aid drinker put his own desires to "cheerlead" ahead of a VA new hire's financial well being

I'm not gonna get suckered into the financial doomsday arguments anymore. There are far too many doomsday analysts here. I have no "own desire" to cheerlead. I answer questions that others have posted in this thread, remember the QOL thing which this thread was about? This thread wasn't titled VX Financial Difficulties. So, I answer QOL questions and have given up on the doomsday arguments because those are pointless.

As for anyone coming to VX (or ANY other airline for that matter), reserach and come in knowing the history of the airline, where they stand, and what they are planning for the next couple years. All of this information is available outside of flightinfo.

In anycase, there is no shortage of pilot applicants at VX, and I doubt any pilot is coming here without knowing the financial aspects of VX. I knew fully well and I made a good decision based on knowledge on hand. But as with ANY job in aviation, you'll only know if you made the right choice when you hit age 65.

 

[LoveGun]

Andy,

Virgin isn't making interest payments. Your $30 million per quarter interest payments and "run out of cash" scenario is incorrect. Virgin's massive net losses are a result of us not paying down our loans -- the interest continues to pile up. That is not cash leaving the piggy bank. Apparently our investors are fine with this and during an IPO the debt will be converted to an equity stake.

 

[ackattacker]

Andy,

Virgin isn't making interest payments. Your $30 million per quarter interest payments and "run out of cash" scenario is incorrect. Virgin's massive net losses are a result of us not paying down our loans -- the interest continues to pile up. That is not cash leaving the piggy bank. Apparently our investors are fine with this and during an IPO the debt will be converted to an equity stake.

There is fundamentally no difference between failing to pay your interest payments and simply borrowing more money to pay your interest payments. In both cases your debt increases. In both cases it is unsustainable.

I am astounded that they are able to still sell this IPO idea as the savior. Do you think Wall Street is clamoring to buy a great big hunk of unprofitable debt?

 

[Andy]

Andy,

Virgin isn't making interest payments. Your $30 million per quarter interest payments and "run out of cash" scenario is incorrect. Virgin's massive net losses are a result of us not paying down our loans -- the interest continues to pile up. That is not cash leaving the piggy bank. Apparently our investors are fine with this and during an IPO the debt will be converted to an equity stake.

You're logically assuming that VX is using Accrual Basis accounting. For a number of reasons, I'm assuming that VX is using Cash Basis accounting. Ask Peter Hunt which accounting method is used; I'd be curious to hear his answer. http://www.nolo.com/legal-encyclopedia/cash-vs-accrual-accounting-29513.html

From looking at VX's third quarter 2012 numbers, it looks like Cash Basis because VX recorded a $15.8 million operating profit yet cash on hand decreased by $7 million. Net interest expenses for the quarter were $28.4 million. I chalked up the discrepancy to the sale-leaseback of N855VA to Aeroventure Ltd.

If you look at VX's long term debt from the DOT form 41, you'll see that VX's long term debt increased from $782.6 million (second quarter) to $823.3 million (third quarter). That's an increase in long term debt of $40.7 million.

I know that no payments are due on the last $150 million loan until mid-2016 so the interest is added to long term debt. I don't think that they're adding that to quarterly net interest. http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfranc...gin-america-raises-cash-cushion.html?page=all

As far as a VX IPO similar to Spirit's, keep in mind that Spirit had $257.6 million in long term debt that was converted to equity. VX has considerably more long term debt which will make it much harder to be able to launch a successful IPO.

 

[Flyer1015]

The debt will be restructured. The end goal is still IPO by mid 2014-end 2014, so the 2015 and 2016 Airbus deliveriees can be financed as a public company (lot cheaper to do than as a private company). The key goal for the time being is being operationally profitable for FY 2013.

 

[redflyer65]

I think an IPO is a pipe dream with the way things are looking. Didn't the CEO want an IPO last year? Even though he spins the hell out of the numbers, even he knew if would sink like a lead balloon if attempted. As Andy said earlier, the debt load at Spirit vs VX are night and day.

 

[bri5150]

I think an IPO is a pipe dream with the way things are looking. Didn't the CEO want an IPO last year? Even though he spins the hell out of the numbers, even he knew if would sink like a lead balloon if attempted. As Andy said earlier, the debt load at Spirit vs VX are night and day.

That's why it isn't being attempted right now. We will see where we sit around this time next year. From the numbers we have been told about for the past 3 quarters, my guess is we will have an operational profit for the year. We can then IPO, pay off our debt and Bob's your uncle. Maybe too simple, but that's the plan and it sounds feasible looking at information that has not been released yet. I will trust my CFO that is actually looking at the numbers and telling me something as opposed to people on FI.com that are calculating possibilities based on assumptions and information they don't have.

 

[bri5150]

It's from my perspective as a "top 500ish at JetBlue" that allows me to say with some confidence that there is no "high reward" to this. It's very likely a career dead end. Sure, the paycheck still clears but that could all stop at any time - and we're making money. What do you think is in JetBlue's future in 1 year, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years? To retirement? Think it'll still be here and that lofty perch of sub-500 seniority will be worth anything?

Now ask those same questions in re VA and tell me that even if the company survives it'll be a sacrifice worth making. What's the end goal here anyway?

I guess you took the risk and it didn't pay off then. Top 20% in an established carrier that is making money should be a good spot to be in. I am sorry it is not for you.

 

[bri5150]

It has nothing to do with being "mature." There are a lot of posters on these forums who seem to imply or think that VA is rounding some sort of corner. There is NOTHING to indicate that whatsoever. If I was a VA pilot answering questions about possible employment I would preface each statement with a statement describing the precarious financial condition of the airline. That's only fair as many guys don't read 10Qs or DOT data. It would suck for a guy to leave a decent job only to have his new job at VA suddenly disappear due to the financial difficulties of the airline. It would suck even worse if a VA kool-aid drinker put his own desires to "cheerlead" ahead of a VA new hire's financial well being.

I guess you are not reading the entire thread. I know this was a response to Flyer, but it sounds like you are talking about me. I told you that I give people that I know all the information I have about the company and let them make their own decision. I don't "cheerlead" at all. I have to post just positive stuff on this forum because there are enough people like you that just spread crap so I have to even it out.