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IMO, Virgin, in its present form, will NOT make it.
Why?
1) No air carrier in history has been successful over the long term by making its labor force bear the costs of the operation. READ: Extremely low pay helps propel the airline to the next level but eventually that poor treatment of employees in a service industry translates to the frontlines and the product suffers.
2) You can't make money in this high oil environment by charging $88 a seat out of SFO. It simply can't be done. Eventually Branson's investors, along with the emloyees, will stop subsidizing people's air travel and stop supporting management's rather uncreative business plan. Reference JBlu... they cannot make money as an airline because their business model is built on cheap fares. You can't continue to lose money forever. In a capitalist society, profit always prevails over all else. Creative destruction results in weaker businesses and industries failing which supports the stronger more innovative models.
3) The training and recruitment costs for any airline are enormous. $30-$50,000 per pilot depending on the carrier. If you create an environment where professional aviators use your company as a revolving door (read: training center) the constant turnover will cost you millions on an annual basis. By this I mean pilots join VA to get the 320 type and flt time then move on when a better opportunity comes along. If you don't pay enough for the retention of your most skilled labor group, it is going to be financially painful in the long run. Couple this with the added dynamic that low-fare/ start-up carriers pay higher salaries to new-hires than the legacy carriers, and one could make the argument that indeed recruitment and training are higher-than-average costs for the start-ups.
All that said, shouldn't this thread be on the LCC boards?
Management might benefit...You have some valid points which may be true referring to an old economic business model. We are now entering a new era of global business which our current and future governments will support. It is a scary time for all of us and VA is just the beginning for this business sector. I believe that US born companies will benefit too from this new evolution of global markets.
I'm sorry....just how is Virgin lowering the bar any lower than the regional airlines already are??? It seems that Virgin pays more and offers more than most regionals...Let's face it, there are alot of RJ's flying routes that used to be flown by major airlines, and that has severely lowered the bar in this industry. It was one thing when regionals were flying from ORD to podunk Iowa, but now they are flying major city to major city with pilots earning a small fraction of what the majors were making...that is what is undercutting the industry.
Hello boys and girls. Today's word is "rationalizing". We're going to use "rationalizing" in a sentence...Dude, don't try logic. It doesn't get through.
Hello boys and girls. Today's word is "rationalizing". We're going to use "rationalizing" in a sentence...
The *REASON* the regionals flew bigger and bigger equipment for less and less money is *BECAUSE* people like you kept "rationalizing" the decision to take the position for less and less as the equipment got bigger and bigger.
First it was a Jetstream. Then it was a Saab. Then it was a Beech 1900. Then it was the CRJ. Then it was the E175. Now it's all the way into an Airbus.
When does it end? Where does "regional creep" end and "mainline flying" begin?
Keep "rationalizing" the decision to take these jobs and, eventually, you'll have $95 an hour 747 Captains at Northwest.
Mr. Robinson's Neighborhood lecture is now over.
The *reason* this happened was because mainline MECs "sold" the flying after deregulation because they didn't want to fly Metros, Bandits, and 1900s....that was beneath big airline pilots to fly these little airplanes......
Let's not forget who's MECs you're talking about...ALPA. Their Motto has always been, get as much as you can for the senior guys at the expense of the youngens! What a collosal blunder to not accept the RJ into the fold as the entry level jet for the majors back in the day. Another example of short term greed with long term consequences! Morons!!
ALPA absolutely recognizes it as a major mistake... one that has caused probably the most damage for a single error in the history of the organization.
That said, as long as people keep flying for peanuts, it'll stay the accepted norm, and "regional creep" will continue.
We have only ourselves to blame if we keep letting the bar get lowered. ALPA may have started it, but they're fighting to improve... what are YOU doing?
(not a slam at one person, it's a rhetorical question meant to get people to re-examine their personal commitment to improving the profession).