We had approximately 80 scheduled retirements from December 13th, 2007 to March 31st, 2008. Not a single pilot actually retired. Not even one. UAL canceled the monthly system bid effective June, 2008 (bids are posted 6 months before they will need you). Our July bid had 65 (an ironic number) "vacancy bids." Not a single captain bid, and not a single B777 or B747 bid. Talk about the reality of the Age 65 carnage on our career progression slapping us in the face. Up until December 13th, there were routinely 20-30 new captain slots every month and another 20-30 wide body slots going to us narrow body guys. Let the stagnation begin...or continue.
Like other posters have said...The only way new hires will progress at a more normal traditional pace is via growth, and unfortunately United has zero A/C on order. The merger scenarios and how they will impact career progression at United are wild guesses at best.
UAL does have a lot of diversity when it comes to domiciles. At least if you are stuck towards the bottom, chances are you can live, or be based near where you want to live. These days, flying out of a domicile in which you actually live, can make or break this career. Commuting long distances will be death by a thousand needles. SEA is probably our most senior base. Need about 10 years, just to hold Guppy F/O! LAX, SFO, ORD, and IAD are all about equal as far as being a junior base, but much depends on the equipment you fly. The guppy is only based in IAD, ORD, DEN, and SEA. DEN and JFK are a bit more senior because of either size, or a lack of options in base, IE. no 777 or 747 out of DEN, so the 767 goes more senior there.
There is no seat freeze at UAL if you are on the narrow body, which is all you can get as new hire. So, if you choose, you can bid to the 767 as soon as you can hold it. It is actually not very senior, especially on the West coast. Just be prepared to fly a lot a 3 day Hawaii trips worth 10:45.
Like UALDriver said, we did just get a mid contract T/A which improved dramatically the quality of work-life on the Guppy and Airbus with the addition of monthly line pay guarantee and trip rigs. This will increase days off for us and result in an average increase in amount of pay for hours worked. These rigs will result in more pilots timing out sooner in the month and should be manpower positive for the Union and a need for additional hiring.
BigRed1