I'm getting these numbers from budget reports for how much money actually flows into an MEC. I went to look at actual data since it is very difficult to estimate how many members of a pilot group do not pay dues do to being on probation, or how much of their income is exempt from dues, etc. My numbers were based on a group with around 1200 pilots. After your post, I went back and double checked everything and I did make a mistake as I incorrectly referenced only one portion of the income coming into an MEC. My number should have been corrected to around 1 mill for a group the size of ASA. Keep in mind this income also included money given back by ALPA as the regionals receive more dues than they pay. However, compensation at ASA is now greater than at the carrier I was looking at, so we are all really estimating.
I still submit that a regional carrier will be financially pressed with an independent union. In ASA's recent negotiations, they still had to get grants of $2 million from ALPA. My carrier was VERY frugal in the years coming up to negotiations and was able to store a large amount of the money coming in for negotiations. That money was gone quickly before having to ask for a MCF grant.
ASA's last round of negotiating lasted over 5-6 years (correct me if I am wrong). These are the times when the finances are critical. Had ASA gone on strike after 6 years of negotiating with an independent union, there most likely would be no strike pay, money would not be there for equipment to monitor flights, etc.
Again, I may be wrong, but from where I sit, it does not look feasible.