The Jetfuel Conspiracy

[JFReservist]

I'll bring the beer!

Beer is for the proletariat, Comrade Ticker... we will all drink vodka. A half ration for you at that, for your disruption!

 

[jetflyer]

Why?

Because the FTC will be opening up an investigation into the manipulation of oil by everyone from Big Oil to the traders. In reading the article, they refer back to the fines some of the oil companies have received in the past and it's peanuts. I guess the max they can fine them is $1M per day...not alot when they are making $10.4B per Q ie: Exxon.

http://www.ajc.com/news/content/news/stories/2008/05/01/GASPRICES.html

imp:​

Oil is up today. Why? Maybe because Bloomberg says Russia's oil output may have peaked.....
Russian April Oil Output Falls to Lowest in 18 Months

(Bloomberg) -- Russia, the world's second-largest oil supplier, produced the least amount of crude in 18 months in April as aging fields and rising costs threaten the country with the first annual decline in oil output in a decade.

Production dropped to 9.72 million barrels a day (39.8 million metric tons a month), 0.8 percent less than in April last year and only slightly higher than in October 2006, according to data released today by CDU TEK, the dispatch center for the Energy Ministry. Compared with March, output fell 0.4 percent.

Russia's output may have peaked as producers struggle with aging fields, rising costs and increasingly remote new deposits, Moscow-based OAO Lukoil and OAO TNK-BP, the country's two- biggest independent oil companies, said in April. The finance and energy ministries are working on tax-cut proposals by July to stimulate investment.

Are they past peak? Probably. There is a LOT of oil left to tap in Siberia, but like happened to the USA after its peak in 1970 at 10mbd, when the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska oil were later brought to production this only stopped production in the USA from falling temporarily.

OPEC's production was less in 2006 than 2005
OPEC's production was less in 2007 than 2006

For every one barrel decrease in consumption in the USA from the USA's slowdown consumption increases by 14 barrels of oil in China/India/and Brazil alone.

Oil will probably go back down to $100/barrel soon to meet its moving 200 day moving average which is normal for a bull market but don't expect it to stay down there for long. This is NOT a bubble. We are entering a new energy paradigm where demand is going up faster than supply and it is going to take the slow learners out there a while to figure this out.

 

[lowecur]

Oil is up today. Why? Maybe because Bloomberg says Russia's oil output may have peaked.....

I'm in a another camp, but for different reasons. It all boils down to my prognostication that the world economy is headed for a cliff. Am I right?....who knows for sure....but by this time next year we'll have a pretty good handle on where things are going (once the stimulus pkg has worked it's way thru the economy). If I'm wrong oil will travel the range from $100-$200. If I'm right, oil will trade $70-90. The caveat in my answer is how dangerous the world will get as economies faulter. Attacks by militant groups will find it much smoother sailing as US military and counter terrorism groups will have less money to spend.

The consumer rules the roost in the US, and they will be propped up by the stimulus pkg until the election is over. Housing is toast for another 4 to 5 yrs, and the US multinational corps (that are presently keeping equities high), will run into a road block as the dollar strengthens to fight inflation.

Hope I'm wrong, but that's my tale of the tape.

imp: ​

 

[jetflyer]

I'm in a another camp, but for different reasons. It all boils down to my prognostication that the world economy is headed for a cliff. Am I right?....who knows for sure....but by this time next year we'll have a pretty good handle on where things are going (once the stimulus pkg has worked it's way thru the economy). If I'm wrong oil will travel the range from $100-$200. If I'm right, oil will trade $70-90. The caveat in my answer is how dangerous the world will get as economies faulter. Attacks by militant groups will find it much smoother sailing as US military and counter terrorism groups will have less money to spend.

The consumer rules the roost in the US, and they will be propped up by the stimulus pkg until the election is over. Housing is toast for another 4 to 5 yrs, and the US multinational corps (that are presently keeping equities high), will run into a road block as the dollar strengthens to fight inflation.

Hope I'm wrong, but that's my tale of the tape.

imp: ​

Well, I think you're right about a slowdown coming around the elections, but I question whether it will be a worldwide slowdown or just a U.S. slowdown. The rest of the world seems to be doing fine especially China/India/Brasil and they're increasing oil consumption at phenomenal rates.

I think it's possible to have the U.S. after about the elections like you say, have declining GDP but have the rest of the world simply slow their rates of growth.

I also think after a bounce in the Dollar Index to no higher than 80 the U.S. dollar will continue its decline. There are simply too many global imbalances with the U.S. and the rest of the world that have a lot further to be worked out and a weaker dollar is one way of fixing them.

Jet

 

[SuperFLUF]

The solution to high jet fuel prices

The coal to oil technology is here now and is certified. The military is using it and it yields around the equivalent of $55 a barrel oil. Even with the plans to recapture and use the CO2 emissions from the process the greenies are still blocking it from wide scale use here in the US. We have at least enough coal to last another 200 years at our current rate of consumption. With the coal we have, we could reduce our foreign oil reliance to zero. That would have too many positive effects to even list here. But the greenies have the Dems by the huevos so nothing gets through the legislative process.


Maybe the garbage to oil plan will get the greenies on board. Even though this is two years away, it could be the saving grace. Buy the coal-oil fuel from S.Africa now and produce our own in a few years.


Jet fuel from garbage?

http://www.biomassmagazine.com/article.jsp?article_id=1584



International event to discuss biobased jet fuel

By Jerry W. Kram


Solena Group, a Washington, D.C.-based company developing a commercial-scale biobased jet fuel production plant, will be discussing synthetic aviation fuel at the ASTM International Aviation Subcommittee meeting in Warsaw, Poland, on June 3-5.

Among other topics, the meeting will include updates on proposals for aviation fuels produced from the Fischer-Tropsch process and a review of a fully synthetic aviation fuel produced by South Africa-based Sasol for the Johannesburg International Airport. In early April, the company became the first in the world to receive international approval for its 100 percent synthetic jet fuel produced by its proprietary coal-to-liquids process. The approval, which was sanctioned by global aviation fuel specification authorities, allows the company’s fully synthetic fuel to be used in commercial airliners. Sasol claims the engine-out emissions of its jet fuel are lower than those from crude-oil-based jet fuel due to its limited sulfur content.

Solena intends to build its biobased jet fuel facility in Gilroy, Calif. The company is in the permitting and engineering phase of development, and the plant is scheduled to be operational in 2011. It will produce 17 MMgy of syngas generated from municipal, agricultural and forestry waste provided by Norcal Waste Systems Inc., one of California’s largest municipal waste and biomass collectors.

The Solena facility will be developed, designed, built, owned and operated by several corporations, including Solena and Rentech Inc., a coal-to-liquid production company that will use the biobased syngas as a replacement for syngas generated from coal or natural gas. Financing for the $250 million plant is being arranged in London. Solena’s production process incorporates a high-temperature gasification reactor powered by a plasma heating system. The biobased syngas is then cooled, cleaned and funneled through Rentech’s Fischer Tropsch technology into equipment that converts it to clean-diesel liquid fuel, which is then upgraded to jet fuel. The fuel can withstand temperatures down to 50 degrees below zero, according to Robert Do, chief executive officer of Solena.

 

[jetflyer]

MYTH:
The slowing U.S. economy and high prices have caused gasoline and oil demand to go down this year.

From the EIA:
EIA: Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending April 25, 2008

Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 20.7 million barrels per day, up by 0.5 percent compared to the similar period last year.
Over the last four weeks:
Motor gasoline demand has averaged nearly 9.3 million barrels per day, up by 0.4 percent from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel demand has averaged about 4.3 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up 0.7 percent from the same period last year.
Jet fuel demand is 4.2 percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.

Jet Fuel Demand has gone down on a bright note. Then again that's probably because of American's cancellations and, ikes, airlines going out of business.....

Also don't forget China and India are averaging about a 10% per year increase in their demand.......

 

[RIDETHELIGHTING]

Another good article on how the air force plans to use coal to jet-A. This will put a lot fuel back on the market.
http://www.bismarcktribune.com/articles/2007/10/07/news/state/140507.txt

 

[jetflyer]

Coal to oil is very much needed and will make a bigger difference than all the other alternatives put together.

It also only takes 3 years to build a coal to oil plant compared to 10 years for a nuclear plant or 10 years to get oil out of ANWR or off the coasts.

Let's just hope the short-sighted idiot politicians will allow it.......

Jet

 

[RIDETHELIGHTING]

it sounds like the AF is going a head with it no matter what. They are accepting bids this month to build a plant, and have it completed by 2011. I think there going to build 15 to start just to meet their demand.

 

[Soverytired]

You know, I think I read somewhere that the US government has prohibited the US military from using oil produced from shale or tar sands in Canada. Because it's too "dirty" and "non-environmentally friendly."

Perhaps. More like further evidence of an utter lack of a coherent US energy policy. It's schizophrenic, really. Kinda like this latest "gas tax holiday" proposal.

The point of which is to keep demand for gas high. If the point is to encourage better gas useage by consumers, high prices certainly do it.

Yet, at the same time, lets keep supply low by prohibiting drilling offshore, ANWAR, or elsewhere. This is INSANE.

And Congress just killed tax credits extensions for renewables (solar, wind) which is absolutely critical because they're long-term investments that take at least a decade to pay off. Tax credits for oil continue, of course . . . I'm not for "windfall profit" taxes on companies that only make a measly 7% profit, but tax credits? Come on!

Short answer: Energy policy in the US does not exist. Competing interests (green vs. coal/oil, liberal vs. conservative, clean energy vs. tree-huggers) stall any kind of coherent plan or progress.

Kinda scary. Because the situation keeps getting worse.

 

[jetflyer]

Soverytired,
I agree. I've even considered that powers that be are ensuring nothing gets done so we experience the effects of peak oil in the most devastating way because that's where we're headed. Like you say absolutely NOTHING gets done and has gotten done except ethanol which is a waste of energy and useless. We're going to cause food shortages and energy shortages with the retarded ethanol boondoggle.

We'll see an Energy Armageddon/War for Oil oh and War for food! if these guys don't get their heads out their arses......

Jet

 

[RIDETHELIGHTING]

The AF cant build the plant, but they can buy the end result of jet-A. That's why there getting private co. to build the actual plant. Also hoping that once it is started other company will build more plants. I think break even is $55 a barrel. So there should be a lot of takers to build them.