The Fate of SWA

[kwick]

Could Southwest buy Spirit while they're on strike and take over their routes like they wanted to do with Frontier?

Would they have to follow the law about seniority integration, or could they just
staple them?

Would they be considered Scabs?

 

[Daddy]

This thread gay

 

[gutshotdraw]

And giving away a lot of the flying to the regionals.

And furloughs...

 

[General Lee]

I have been on FI.com for at least 9 years (moderators, feel free to correct me). For those approx 9 years I have been reading how SWA is just around the corner from BK and total failure. Since that time SWA has hired approx 3000 pilots and purchased over 200 airplanes (low ball guestimates on my part). We do still go to LBB General, and you are right it is no garden spot, but I've been laid a few times in LBB and also overseas and I must say, I can't tell the difference, both were pretty good. Anyway, for how much longer can SWA keep going? We have been predicting their demise for years on here and they still keep humping it like the energizer bunny, much like the ladies of LBB.

Bake

If you continue to pay for training, I bet SWA will last a couple more years AT LEAST. Unfortunately you will still have to go to West Texas and Islip, since you pretty much rule the roost there. And, unfortunately most of your trips will still have multiple leg days with quick turns, which will tire on you when you turn 40 years old. Dreaming of one leg days will be just that, a dream, because even though you fly BWI to LAS nonstop, you will still have an ONT and SMF flight to go.

You may merge coming up here, which is something Gary Kelly seems ripe to do. That will not settle well with SWAPA, since your union and many of your pilots think everyone else DREAMS to do what you do, and that should mean they get stapled and should wait their turn to be a Corndog Capt. You demanded that of the F9 guys, and you will demand that of Airtran or whoever else Gary wants to dance with. If you do that again, watch out, since not everyone is as weak as the F9 guys were financially (Republic got them for cheap overall). The Airtran guys won't take it, and the Bond Ammendment (from that senator from Missouri) won't really allow it, unless the Airtran guys just give it away. They aren't in as bad of shape as the F9 guys were, so they have the leverage and the law on their side, which will pizz the SWAPA guys off to NO END.

When your higher pay rates are eventually achieved once again at the legacies, your bragging rights will go away, and the nature of your flying will be revealed. Pre-9-11 many of your SWA Captains left for United, and were furloughed not long after. That could happen again if pay was not really an issue. Your stews are fun though, and you have a pretty good relationship with Gary, as of right now anyway.

Other than that, SWA seems like a pretty good airline. Most of you guys seem happy, although tired from being worked like "dogs." (as stated to me by a SWA FO) But what the heck, right? The pay is great. And, if you don't like it, other airlines will be hiring coming up here. Those one and two leg days could be in your sights if you want it. Have a FANTASTIC day, and watch out for Tornados near MAF!


Bye Bye---General Lee

 

[Scope out RJ's]

Hey Bud,

Nice to meet you. You are the only person that I have ever put on an ignore list .... Ever.

Congratulations. You're boring and creepy.

Buh Bye :laugh:

Good. Another dickweed gone!:laugh:
Buh bye!

 

[chase]

Southwest has a very bright future for its employees, shareholders and customers. Caveat: My drivel is worth no more than anyone elses with all of the variables that will inevitably impact not just SWA but other carriers.

- SWA has increased its market share since '99 from 8% to 15% in 2009 of US domestic passengers. Project over the next 10 years that number will grow to 20-25%, slower than in the past but still significant. This increase will come from Legacy carriers pax and from regional carriers.

- SWA will enter into selective markets that have been abandoned by mainline legacy carriers and are served primarily by regional carriers (CHS and GSP, maybe ICT in the future...many other cities also exist) but will also see gains in larger airports (BOS, LGA, DCA, EWR and DAL when the Wright Amendment goes away in 2013!)

- SWA will introduce a new 737 version, 800 or '900s for some of the current -700s on order. These will be dedicated toward near international markets and HI.

- Prior to the purchase of the first '800/'900, SWA will be flying to Mexico and parts of the Carribean within 18 months.

- No mergers anytime within the next 3-5 yrs with carriers that are not in bankruptcy. SWA would consider purchasing pieces of companies that are in bankruptcy as would any carrier.

- SWA will watch codeshare partner Volaris and will learn from them where to fly to and within 5 yrs be flying to at least 5 cities in Mexico or Central America.

- Volaris will be sold to another airline or will go bankrupt within 3-5 yrs and SWA will expand its foothold in Mexico. SWA will be the airline of choice for the Hispanic community flying from the US to destinations in Mexico. SWA's greatest growth in the next 10 yrs will be flights flown to Mexico, flown by SWA crews:beer:

- Ancillary fees volume will continue to increase at SWA, slowly but steadily; other carriers will see their volume level off or decrease (trend already indicates that) as SWA will capture more $$ from their website (currently nearly 14% of all persons visting the website make a purchase of some sort...it now offers hotels to non-SWA cities, world wide) Rapid Rewards credit card signups (more pax coming on board), value pricing for internet usage and more Business Select purchases followed by the return of more business travelers to SWA (not dwarfing other legacy carriers but will still be signifcant) because of their desire to fly on larger airplanes vs. regional carriers and lower costs.

- Legacy carriers and LCC will see their non-fuel costs rise with higher labor contracts as employees attempt to re-capture some losses. Failure to capture that will result in possible disruptive actions and negative consequences for those carriers and in turn drive passengers toward SWA and other carriers.

- SWA will take advantage of that and will still be able to show a sizable profit as result of efficiency/productivity (fuel savings through RNP full implementation...we've paid down our costs while other carriers except Alaska and Westjet have not) while maintaining near industry leading wages thanks to higher productivity and innovative revenue streams.

- Avg ticket prices will rise for SWA pax to pay for some of these increased expenses but not as fast as other carriers as the unproductive nature of hub/spoke costs will continue to be a burden.

- Pilot hiring (those with type only) will begin slowly in '11 with steady increases through '13 as growth returns incrementally and then will increase dramatically as retirements and international growth and domestic growth kicks in. (those without types will eventually be able to apply again is my guess).

- Pressure will be on SWA for pilot hiring as pilots will have the same dilemma in '13 as they did in late 90s deciding whether to choose a legacy carrier (big metal, interntaional flying, upgrade projections) vs. coming to SWA (more pay, less likely to furlough, work environment, possibly slower upgrade to CA than some legacies may promise...that didn't work out as planned for many in the late 90's and those pilots who must make that choice in 2013 and beyond will need to be mindful of that).

All of the above is a crapshoot and anyone else could draw a very different conclusion. Global recession, terriorist attack, war in the Middle East or more politicians who wish to make doing business in the US difficult as well as hundred other variables make all of the above moot.

Personally I have spent more years here at SWA than I have remaining but my hope is that when I do depart, the airline that remains will be as healthy as the airline I got when I started here back in '99. If it isn't, then my generation has failed to do the right things to make it prosper along with the SWA leadership. I'm hopeful that will occur. Good luck poolies...hang in there.

 

[MILPILOT17]

Nice post!

 

[johnsonrod]

If you continue to pay for training, I bet SWA will last a couple more years AT LEAST. Unfortunately you will still have to go to West Texas and Islip, since you pretty much rule the roost there. And, unfortunately most of your trips will still have multiple leg days with quick turns, which will tire on you when you turn 40 years old. Dreaming of one leg days will be just that, a dream, because even though you fly BWI to LAS nonstop, you will still have an ONT and SMF flight to go.

You may merge coming up here, which is something Gary Kelly seems ripe to do. That will not settle well with SWAPA, since your union and many of your pilots think everyone else DREAMS to do what you do, and that should mean they get stapled and should wait their turn to be a Corndog Capt. You demanded that of the F9 guys, and you will demand that of Airtran or whoever else Gary wants to dance with. If you do that again, watch out, since not everyone is as weak as the F9 guys were financially (Republic got them for cheap overall). The Airtran guys won't take it, and the Bond Ammendment (from that senator from Missouri) won't really allow it, unless the Airtran guys just give it away. They aren't in as bad of shape as the F9 guys were, so they have the leverage and the law on their side, which will pizz the SWAPA guys off to NO END.

When your higher pay rates are eventually achieved once again at the legacies, your bragging rights will go away, and the nature of your flying will be revealed. Pre-9-11 many of your SWA Captains left for United, and were furloughed not long after. That could happen again if pay was not really an issue. Your stews are fun though, and you have a pretty good relationship with Gary, as of right now anyway.

Other than that, SWA seems like a pretty good airline. Most of you guys seem happy, although tired from being worked like "dogs." (as stated to me by a SWA FO) But what the heck, right? The pay is great. And, if you don't like it, other airlines will be hiring coming up here. Those one and two leg days could be in your sights if you want it. Have a FANTASTIC day, and watch out for Tornados near MAF!


Bye Bye---General Lee

Great post. I want to leave my regional and intra Texas flying behind, and see something new.

 

[DIAMONDDD]

Every airline with an airplane has been predicted to go out of business on FI.com.

 

[johnsonrod]

Southwest has a very bright future for its employees, shareholders and customers. Caveat: My drivel is worth no more than anyone elses with all of the variables that will inevitably impact not just SWA but other carriers.

- SWA has increased its market share since '99 from 8% to 15% in 2009 of US domestic passengers. Project over the next 10 years that number will grow to 20-25%, slower than in the past but still significant. This increase will come from Legacy carriers pax and from regional carriers.

- SWA will enter into selective markets that have been abandoned by mainline legacy carriers and are served primarily by regional carriers (CHS and GSP, maybe ICT in the future...many other cities also exist) but will also see gains in larger airports (BOS, LGA, DCA, EWR and DAL when the Wright Amendment goes away in 2013!)Of those cities, Delta is adding back mainline and dumping regional flying.

- SWA will introduce a new 737 version, 800 or '900s for some of the current -700s on order. These will be dedicated toward near international markets and HI. (speculation, I have heard about your Hawaii flying for a few years now)

- Prior to the purchase of the first '800/'900, SWA will be flying to Mexico and parts of the Carribean within 18 months. (sounds like 787 flying prediction, plus or minus 2 years, and new planes means higher initial costs. Your old and paid for 737-300s will start to go away, meaning more money being used)

- No mergers anytime within the next 3-5 yrs with carriers that are not in bankruptcy. SWA would consider purchasing pieces of companies that are in bankruptcy as would any carrier. I bet Kelly will revise that if a certain opportunity came up. And next time, he may not ask you for your permission.

- SWA will watch codeshare partner Volaris and will learn from them where to fly to and within 5 yrs be flying to at least 5 cities in Mexico or Central America. Watch and Learn from Volaris? Are you guys that slow? Hire a consulting firm.

- Volaris will be sold to another airline or will go bankrupt within 3-5 yrs and SWA will expand its foothold in Mexico. SWA will be the airline of choice for the Hispanic community flying from the US to destinations in Mexico. SWA's greatest growth in the next 10 yrs will be flights flown to Mexico, flown by SWA crews:beer: ).(Riiight. When will you guys just take over the World? Real Cocky there Chase. You will become the National Favorite of Guatemala too, along with Ecuador and Belize. I am starting to agree with Gen Lee, you guys are full of yourselves. Read your above bullet again.)

- Ancillary fees volume will continue to increase at SWA, slowly but steadily; other carriers will see their volume level off or decrease (trend already indicates that) as SWA will capture more $$ from their website (currently nearly 14% of all persons visting the website make a purchase of some sort...it now offers hotels to non-SWA cities, world wide) Rapid Rewards credit card signups (more pax coming on board), value pricing for internet usage and more Business Select purchases followed by the return of more business travelers to SWA (not dwarfing other legacy carriers but will still be signifcant) because of their desire to fly on larger airplanes vs. regional carriers and lower costs. (Allegiant Airlines does this better with Las Vegas casinos. This isn't new. Delta has more SkyMiles members through American Express than any other airline, including Southwest)

- Legacy carriers and LCC will see their non-fuel costs rise with higher labor contracts as employees attempt to re-capture some losses. Failure to capture that will result in possible disruptive actions and negative consequences for those carriers and in turn drive passengers toward SWA and other carriers. (And your costs will remain the same? Sure, Legacies will have to pay more, but they are merging and the synergies from merging reservation systems, mx facilities, etc will help pay for any increase in employee costs. Also, premium travellers are returning, bringing fares up. Southwest also has to charge more because you guys are now flying in more expensive airports (LGA and BOS) versus where you used to fly exclusively (MHT and PVD). You have to expand just to pay for new fees)

- SWA will take advantage of that and will still be able to show a sizable profit as result of efficiency/productivity (fuel savings through RNP full implementation...we've paid down our costs while other carriers except Alaska and Westjet have not) while maintaining near industry leading wages thanks to higher productivity and innovative revenue streams.(Have your guys really figured that stuff out yet? My friend there says many of your pilots don't trust it, and try to hand fly it again, and don't like the new PFD at all)

- Avg ticket prices will rise for SWA pax to pay for some of these increased expenses but not as fast as other carriers as the unproductive nature of hub/spoke costs will continue to be a burden. You don't have hubs? How big is your LAS and DEN operation? How about MDW? So, they are very productive, while the legacy hubs are not? Cocky again Chase.

- Pilot hiring (those with type only)-PFT will begin slowly in '11 with steady increases through '13 as growth returns incrementally and then will increase dramatically as retirements and international growth and domestic growth kicks in. (those without types will eventually be able to apply again is my guess).

- Pressure will be on SWA for pilot hiring as pilots will have the same dilemma in '13 as they did in late 90s deciding whether to choose a legacy carrier (big metal, interntaional flying, upgrade projections) vs. coming to SWA (more pay,(Not for long) less likely to furlough, work environment, possibly slower upgrade to CA than some legacies may promise...that didn't work out as planned for many in the late 90's and those pilots who must make that choice in 2013 and beyond will need to be mindful of that). All guesses, and not for certain at all. You hope that happens, but Southwest had it's own stagnation for the last few years, when you thought constant hiring would continue. Do you really think Legacies will always lack in pay? You hope so, because without that part, pilots will be looking for some variety at the legacies.

All of the above is a crapshoot and anyone else could draw a very different conclusion. Global recession, terriorist attack, war in the Middle East or more politicians who wish to make doing business in the US difficult as well as hundred other variables make all of the above moot.

Personally I have spent more years here at SWA than I have remaining but my hope is that when I do depart, the airline that remains will be as healthy as the airline I got when I started here back in '99. If it isn't, then my generation has failed to do the right things to make it prosper along with the SWA leadership. I'm hopeful that will occur. Good luck poolies...hang in there.

To quote the General, don't get Cocky Chase! A lot of your assumptions are just that. You guys sure do get nervous when the legacies start to get more healthy and start to hire. You know many of your own flock are ready to leave for something better. I am waiting for my own interview, and it isn't with you guys. I have had enough of long days and short layovers in nowhere towns. I want to see the World.