The Fate of SWA

[FlyinGuy]

No johnson, we will only get nervous when Delta starts that ATL-LBB......till then I think we are ok.

 

[MILPILOT17]

News Flash: SWA is going out of business next week. All aircraft will be sold starting tomorrow. Game over man; game over!

 

[General Lee]

News Flash: SWA is going out of business next week. All aircraft will be sold starting tomorrow. Game over man; game over!

I doubt that, but you guys have GOT to get off your high horses. I just read Chase's diatribe, and the part about Southwest becoming "The Hispanic airline of choice" to Mexico EVENTUALLY reeks of cockiness, especially since SWA doesn't trust you guys to fly to Mexico NOW. Really? The choice for all Hispanics? Really? Chase is drunk.


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[General Lee]

Southwest has a very bright future for its employees, shareholders and customers. Caveat: My drivel is worth no more than anyone elses with all of the variables that will inevitably impact not just SWA but other carriers.

- SWA has increased its market share since '99 from 8% to 15% in 2009 of US domestic passengers. Project over the next 10 years that number will grow to 20-25%, slower than in the past but still significant. This increase will come from Legacy carriers pax and from regional carriers.

- SWA will enter into selective markets that have been abandoned by mainline legacy carriers and are served primarily by regional carriers (CHS and GSP, maybe ICT in the future...many other cities also exist) but will also see gains in larger airports (BOS, LGA, DCA, EWR and DAL when the Wright Amendment goes away in 2013!)

- SWA will introduce a new 737 version, 800 or '900s for some of the current -700s on order. These will be dedicated toward near international markets and HI.

- Prior to the purchase of the first '800/'900, SWA will be flying to Mexico and parts of the Carribean within 18 months.

- No mergers anytime within the next 3-5 yrs with carriers that are not in bankruptcy. SWA would consider purchasing pieces of companies that are in bankruptcy as would any carrier.

- SWA will watch codeshare partner Volaris and will learn from them where to fly to and within 5 yrs be flying to at least 5 cities in Mexico or Central America.

- Volaris will be sold to another airline or will go bankrupt within 3-5 yrs and SWA will expand its foothold in Mexico. SWA will be the airline of choice for the Hispanic community flying from the US to destinations in Mexico. SWA's greatest growth in the next 10 yrs will be flights flown to Mexico, flown by SWA crews:beer:

- Ancillary fees volume will continue to increase at SWA, slowly but steadily; other carriers will see their volume level off or decrease (trend already indicates that) as SWA will capture more $$ from their website (currently nearly 14% of all persons visting the website make a purchase of some sort...it now offers hotels to non-SWA cities, world wide) Rapid Rewards credit card signups (more pax coming on board), value pricing for internet usage and more Business Select purchases followed by the return of more business travelers to SWA (not dwarfing other legacy carriers but will still be signifcant) because of their desire to fly on larger airplanes vs. regional carriers and lower costs.

- Legacy carriers and LCC will see their non-fuel costs rise with higher labor contracts as employees attempt to re-capture some losses. Failure to capture that will result in possible disruptive actions and negative consequences for those carriers and in turn drive passengers toward SWA and other carriers.

- SWA will take advantage of that and will still be able to show a sizable profit as result of efficiency/productivity (fuel savings through RNP full implementation...we've paid down our costs while other carriers except Alaska and Westjet have not) while maintaining near industry leading wages thanks to higher productivity and innovative revenue streams.

- Avg ticket prices will rise for SWA pax to pay for some of these increased expenses but not as fast as other carriers as the unproductive nature of hub/spoke costs will continue to be a burden.

- Pilot hiring (those with type only) will begin slowly in '11 with steady increases through '13 as growth returns incrementally and then will increase dramatically as retirements and international growth and domestic growth kicks in. (those without types will eventually be able to apply again is my guess).

- Pressure will be on SWA for pilot hiring as pilots will have the same dilemma in '13 as they did in late 90s deciding whether to choose a legacy carrier (big metal, interntaional flying, upgrade projections) vs. coming to SWA (more pay, less likely to furlough, work environment, possibly slower upgrade to CA than some legacies may promise...that didn't work out as planned for many in the late 90's and those pilots who must make that choice in 2013 and beyond will need to be mindful of that).

All of the above is a crapshoot and anyone else could draw a very different conclusion. Global recession, terriorist attack, war in the Middle East or more politicians who wish to make doing business in the US difficult as well as hundred other variables make all of the above moot.

Personally I have spent more years here at SWA than I have remaining but my hope is that when I do depart, the airline that remains will be as healthy as the airline I got when I started here back in '99. If it isn't, then my generation has failed to do the right things to make it prosper along with the SWA leadership. I'm hopeful that will occur. Good luck poolies...hang in there.

OMG this is funny. Great stuff here, if you are on drugs. Love this part the best:

Volaris will be sold to another airline or will go bankrupt within 3-5 yrs and SWA will expand its foothold in Mexico. SWA will be the airline of choice for the Hispanic community flying from the US to destinations in Mexico. SWA's greatest growth in the next 10 yrs will be flights flown to Mexico, flown by SWA crews


Again, SWA doesn't trust you to fly to Mexico NOW........


Bye Bye--General Lee

 

[Kharma Police]

News Flash: SWA is going out of business next week. All aircraft will be sold starting tomorrow. Game over man; game over!

In that case, I bet you feel lucky that you never got a job there.

 

[texman]

I doubt that, but you guys have GOT to get off your high horses. I just read Chase's diatribe, and the part about Southwest becoming "The Hispanic airline of choice" to Mexico EVENTUALLY reeks of cockiness, especially since SWA doesn't trust you guys to fly to Mexico NOW. Really? The choice for all Hispanics? Really? Chase is drunk.


Bye Bye--General Lee

Hey! Lol we will get off are high horse when delta starts to ride in the same hotel van! Lol. I can't wait till we buy delta. I will be busting your ballzzz in the crew room.

 

[Scope out RJ's]

Hey! Lol we will get off are high horse when delta starts to ride in the same hotel van! Lol. I can't wait till we buy delta. I will be busting your ballzzz in the crew room.

I know you guys are used to buying things, like your job, but come on. The only thing sw will be buying is more faa inspectors so they can fly around broken airplanes!

 

[texman]

I know you guys are used to buying things, like your job, but come on. The only thing sw will be buying is more faa inspectors so they can fly around broken airplanes!

Hey I was looking at your pic there and did you used to fly that bird? Just wondering if mommy and daddy paid for you to go to the delta academy?

 

[redflyer65]

My favorite Delta van story goes like this..

Riding down to the lobby on a SAN overnight a Delta CA turns to me (a newhire at SW) and says "is there anywhere you guys go that you don't bring 30 aircraft?"

I just chuckled a little bit because I really didn't know what he was talking about, then the elevator door opened and the ENTIRE lobby was full of SW crews from wall to wall. Then I knew what he was asking.

As far as going to Mexico, I'm sure it and other international destinations will be in the future much to the disbelief of the General.

I'll glady continue to fly to LBB, MAF, ISP and the rest of those cities OURSELVES. The only other carriers that I see there are names that end in the word Express.

 

[Whataburger]

Again, SWA doesn't trust you to fly to Mexico NOW........


Bye Bye--General Lee

Recently I was in LBB with a Pinnacle "Delta Connection" RJ a few gates away. SWA might not trust us to go to Mexico, but Delta does not trust you to go to LUBBOCK. :laugh:

Another thing that I think is really, really cool - ALL SWA flying is done by SWA pilots on the SWA seniority list, period.