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The Fate of SWA
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MILPILOT17
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General Lee
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I doubt that, but you guys have GOT to get off your high horses. I just read Chase's diatribe, and the part about Southwest becoming "The Hispanic airline of choice" to Mexico EVENTUALLY reeks of cockiness, especially since SWA doesn't trust you guys to fly to Mexico NOW. Really? The choice for all Hispanics? Really? Chase is drunk.
Bye Bye--General Lee
General Lee
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Southwest has a very bright future for its employees, shareholders and customers. Caveat: My drivel is worth no more than anyone elses with all of the variables that will inevitably impact not just SWA but other carriers.
- SWA has increased its market share since '99 from 8% to 15% in 2009 of US domestic passengers. Project over the next 10 years that number will grow to 20-25%, slower than in the past but still significant. This increase will come from Legacy carriers pax and from regional carriers.
- SWA will enter into selective markets that have been abandoned by mainline legacy carriers and are served primarily by regional carriers (CHS and GSP, maybe ICT in the future...many other cities also exist) but will also see gains in larger airports (BOS, LGA, DCA, EWR and DAL when the Wright Amendment goes away in 2013!)
- SWA will introduce a new 737 version, 800 or '900s for some of the current -700s on order. These will be dedicated toward near international markets and HI.
- Prior to the purchase of the first '800/'900, SWA will be flying to Mexico and parts of the Carribean within 18 months.
- No mergers anytime within the next 3-5 yrs with carriers that are not in bankruptcy. SWA would consider purchasing pieces of companies that are in bankruptcy as would any carrier.
- SWA will watch codeshare partner Volaris and will learn from them where to fly to and within 5 yrs be flying to at least 5 cities in Mexico or Central America.
- Volaris will be sold to another airline or will go bankrupt within 3-5 yrs and SWA will expand its foothold in Mexico. SWA will be the airline of choice for the Hispanic community flying from the US to destinations in Mexico. SWA's greatest growth in the next 10 yrs will be flights flown to Mexico, flown by SWA crews:beer:
- Ancillary fees volume will continue to increase at SWA, slowly but steadily; other carriers will see their volume level off or decrease (trend already indicates that) as SWA will capture more $$ from their website (currently nearly 14% of all persons visting the website make a purchase of some sort...it now offers hotels to non-SWA cities, world wide) Rapid Rewards credit card signups (more pax coming on board), value pricing for internet usage and more Business Select purchases followed by the return of more business travelers to SWA (not dwarfing other legacy carriers but will still be signifcant) because of their desire to fly on larger airplanes vs. regional carriers and lower costs.
- Legacy carriers and LCC will see their non-fuel costs rise with higher labor contracts as employees attempt to re-capture some losses. Failure to capture that will result in possible disruptive actions and negative consequences for those carriers and in turn drive passengers toward SWA and other carriers.
- SWA will take advantage of that and will still be able to show a sizable profit as result of efficiency/productivity (fuel savings through RNP full implementation...we've paid down our costs while other carriers except Alaska and Westjet have not) while maintaining near industry leading wages thanks to higher productivity and innovative revenue streams.
- Avg ticket prices will rise for SWA pax to pay for some of these increased expenses but not as fast as other carriers as the unproductive nature of hub/spoke costs will continue to be a burden.
- Pilot hiring (those with type only) will begin slowly in '11 with steady increases through '13 as growth returns incrementally and then will increase dramatically as retirements and international growth and domestic growth kicks in. (those without types will eventually be able to apply again is my guess).
- Pressure will be on SWA for pilot hiring as pilots will have the same dilemma in '13 as they did in late 90s deciding whether to choose a legacy carrier (big metal, interntaional flying, upgrade projections) vs. coming to SWA (more pay, less likely to furlough, work environment, possibly slower upgrade to CA than some legacies may promise...that didn't work out as planned for many in the late 90's and those pilots who must make that choice in 2013 and beyond will need to be mindful of that).
All of the above is a crapshoot and anyone else could draw a very different conclusion. Global recession, terriorist attack, war in the Middle East or more politicians who wish to make doing business in the US difficult as well as hundred other variables make all of the above moot.
Personally I have spent more years here at SWA than I have remaining but my hope is that when I do depart, the airline that remains will be as healthy as the airline I got when I started here back in '99. If it isn't, then my generation has failed to do the right things to make it prosper along with the SWA leadership. I'm hopeful that will occur. Good luck poolies...hang in there.
OMG this is funny. Great stuff here, if you are on drugs. Love this part the best:
Volaris will be sold to another airline or will go bankrupt within 3-5 yrs and SWA will expand its foothold in Mexico. SWA will be the airline of choice for the Hispanic community flying from the US to destinations in Mexico. SWA's greatest growth in the next 10 yrs will be flights flown to Mexico, flown by SWA crews
Again, SWA doesn't trust you to fly to Mexico NOW........
Bye Bye--General Lee
Kharma Police
Don't mess with Texas
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In that case, I bet you feel lucky that you never got a job there.
Hey! Lol we will get off are high horse when delta starts to ride in the same hotel van! Lol. I can't wait till we buy delta. I will be busting your ballzzz in the crew room.
Scope out RJ's
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I know you guys are used to buying things, like your job, but come on. The only thing sw will be buying is more faa inspectors so they can fly around broken airplanes!
Hey I was looking at your pic there and did you used to fly that bird? Just wondering if mommy and daddy paid for you to go to the delta academy?
redflyer65
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My favorite Delta van story goes like this..
Riding down to the lobby on a SAN overnight a Delta CA turns to me (a newhire at SW) and says "is there anywhere you guys go that you don't bring 30 aircraft?"
I just chuckled a little bit because I really didn't know what he was talking about, then the elevator door opened and the ENTIRE lobby was full of SW crews from wall to wall. Then I knew what he was asking.
As far as going to Mexico, I'm sure it and other international destinations will be in the future much to the disbelief of the General.
I'll glady continue to fly to LBB, MAF, ISP and the rest of those cities OURSELVES. The only other carriers that I see there are names that end in the word Express.
Riding down to the lobby on a SAN overnight a Delta CA turns to me (a newhire at SW) and says "is there anywhere you guys go that you don't bring 30 aircraft?"
I just chuckled a little bit because I really didn't know what he was talking about, then the elevator door opened and the ENTIRE lobby was full of SW crews from wall to wall. Then I knew what he was asking.
As far as going to Mexico, I'm sure it and other international destinations will be in the future much to the disbelief of the General.
I'll glady continue to fly to LBB, MAF, ISP and the rest of those cities OURSELVES. The only other carriers that I see there are names that end in the word Express.
Whataburger
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Recently I was in LBB with a Pinnacle "Delta Connection" RJ a few gates away. SWA might not trust us to go to Mexico, but Delta does not trust you to go to LUBBOCK. :laugh:
Another thing that I think is really, really cool - ALL SWA flying is done by SWA pilots on the SWA seniority list, period.
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MILPILOT17
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Yea, that would really suck to work at SWA!
Whataburger
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SWA GUY
BMF
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My favorite airport story:
I was trudging through Amarillo airport on the way to the hotel. Behind me was a Delta CA/FO doing the same. Incidentally, on my flight case was a giant SWA sticker.
Delta CA: What airline do you work for? (looking at my Giant SWA sticker)
Me: Prior to SWA, Delta. I got furloughed three years ago....
Delta CA: oh...
Priceless!
I was trudging through Amarillo airport on the way to the hotel. Behind me was a Delta CA/FO doing the same. Incidentally, on my flight case was a giant SWA sticker.
Delta CA: What airline do you work for? (looking at my Giant SWA sticker)
Me: Prior to SWA, Delta. I got furloughed three years ago....
Delta CA: oh...
Priceless!
YES! Hey wait.....did you just say there was a DELTA crew in AMA? General, I thought you guys were too good for that?????
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redflyer65
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nice!
General Lee
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So, you like ballzz, eh? Sorry, I don't go that way, not that there is anything wrong with that......
We won't ride the same van with you guys? Come on now, that is an urban myth. If that ever did happen to you, that would be one in a million, and I am sure you have guys like that too that want their own van. Unfortunately I don't get to see you guys often in the same van, since I fly INTL routes. You know, my company trusts us to fly outside the contiguous 48 states. Maybe someday I will see you guys in the same Van----maybe in CANADA? Good luck with that, and have a Fantastic day in ELP, twice.
Bye Bye--General Lee
redflyer65
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General Lee
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Great, you have 30 planes sitting around at night at some airports. Ever been to ATL? (Oh wait, you can't right now) It is the BUSIEST airport in the world, and we have more widebodies and narrowbodies flying through there than anyone else (70% of the traffic). Constant 757s and bigger. Think of all of the "Caution Wake turbulence" calls you would get going in there? (Ask your future seniority list buddies the Airtran guys) Not that impressed with your gaggle of 737s at night.....
And face it, your management wanted Volaris and Westjet to fly all INTL routes initially, primarily because they knew you were stressed out learning how to use VNAV. You just can't handle everything at once, so they have to spread it out over years apparently.
And have you seen or read anything about the number of RJs Delta is parking now? Did you hear that DL won a lawsuit yesterday to help shut down Freedom Air (a part of Mesa)? That is 22 more going away. And, DL is hiring in the Fall (mainline), and rumors are even more next year. You should throw in your app so you can relax a bit more and avoid MAF. Do it. If I am your Captain, again, I will buy 3rd and 5th beers, and 1 six piece hot wings (mild please). Fantastic!
Bye Bye--General Lee
General Lee
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Ok, 2 in a million. Most of the time that just isn't the case. I bet most DL guys would like to sit in the van with your stews and check them out.
Bye Bye---General Lee
redflyer65
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General,
A couple of points for you..
1- I love MAF. We fly it and don't outsource it.
2- The whole story started with a question one of YOUR Captains asked.
3- Delta has over a thousand RJ's and your excited about parking 50?
I really have no ambition to fly a widebody, sorry. I like the fact we do everything ourselves, kind of novel.
A couple of points for you..
1- I love MAF. We fly it and don't outsource it.
2- The whole story started with a question one of YOUR Captains asked.
3- Delta has over a thousand RJ's and your excited about parking 50?
I really have no ambition to fly a widebody, sorry. I like the fact we do everything ourselves, kind of novel.
redflyer65
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How much longer until you fly the whale?.. Seems to me that is the only plane that can accomadate your International Ego Trips !!
General Lee
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Red,
It is FANTASTIC you love MAF. I love Munich, London, Paris (not Texas), Dublin, Frankfurt, Buenos Aires, Rio, Anchorage, St. Thomas, Prague, Copenhagen, etc. We fly those and do very well at it. And one of our Captains asked about the fate of SWA? You mean merger with someone that Kelly seems to want? I don't care what Chase says (unless he is Kelly), because Kelly will do what he wants. Also, we don't have 1000 RJs. It may seem like that sometimes, but the number is getting smaller and smaller each month. Anderson doesn't seem to like them as much as the previous managements. And, I guess you have resigned yourself to not flying widebodies. Hey, some people can't handle long haul or bigger planes. (you don't really have to do only long haul at the legacies either---domestic is right there if you want it) That's ok. Other people love to memorize VHF frequencies and think that impresses people, like knowing ELP tower or the girl who does LBB approach. (?) I think that is kinda sad. Have a good one!
Bye Bye--General Lee
General Lee
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How much longer until you fly the whale?.. Seems to me that is the only plane that can accomadate your International Ego Trips !!
About 4 more years (the leases were just extended on those planes). And, as I stated before, variety means having CHOICE. At DL and other legacies, you don't have to only fly INTL or only DOMESTIC. You can actually do both in ATL. Next month I have 3 Europe 3 day trips (all worth about 20 hours---with only 2 legs each), and one 4 day domestic trip with nice layovers that I wanted. And, I have a few days off in a row to try to grab a greenslip somewhere (double pay on your days off). Sounds FANTASTIC---the best of both worlds without having to go to West Texas.
Bye Bye--General Lee
redflyer65
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You know what's great? That you like going international, it must be nice for you to finally get that chance. Since I am guessing you have never had that opportunity coming up thru the EM2(whatever that is) and sitting sideways in the 727. As for myself, having flown a 707, 727, 757, 767 and G-IV international not to mention the C-141, I have NO desire to go overseas again, EVER. I have been to every continent, save Antarctica, you can have it. I would rather go where the exchange rate is 1=1 and English is the native language. However, I am glad that you were able to get your daddy's dick out of your a$$(and mouth) and make it out of the trailer park. Happy for you! LOSER!!
General Lee
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The cap varies depending on the season, obviously Summer is busiest. I think you guys were capped last Winter (or no open time) when the flying slowed and you didn't want to furlough any of your pilots. There is an average line value, with a max of 15 over that you can pick up open trips. But, you can also swap with the pot, and go up to FAA max hours, or swap with other people and easily get over 100 hours. Senior guys on reserve during the Summer do what is called "Rolling Thunder", which means they fly on their days off, but then get awarded extra days off on the days they were originally supposed to be on reserve. (trade days off for on reserve days, and vice versa) Some of those guys get up to 180 hours of pay per month, with 16 days off, all by flying on their initial 4 days off at the beginning of the month. A great deal for people that want to stay home and are senior enough. I would rather have a schedule and fly where I want to---like Europe.
Bye Bye--General Lee
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