the dream gone forever?

[felixf16]

The capacity decline is beginning now in the airlines....and it is not going to come back. In all probability it will become to expensive for average people to fly within the next 20 years or so.

Krew,

Unfortunately, I believe that you are spot-on here.

As part of an M&A course I recently completed, a "senior executive" of a merging major air carrier came in to chat with our class. Your words reflect his, and nearly verbatim. He stated flatly, "Airline seats will no longer be a commodity."

He went on to note that industry-wide capacity reduction will occur through both business combinations - he predicted three major carriers as surviving entities - and dissolutions.

Best to all,

Felix

 

[relief tube]

There's well over a dozen airline brands, all of which are in this constant battle to keep the others from killing them.

And even if there weren't $49 one way fares and $133 oil, the mere fact that the entire chunk of airline flying over the past 10 years has been divided by now twice as many carriers, everything's now diluted- from the routes to the planes to the schedules. You can only work for 1 airline so the diluting has led to less chance to increase QOL.

 

[Champ42272]

The "dream is alive" career in the major airline business is entirely a personal decision. But IMHO, there are two ways the industry can go from this point.

Option 1. Fuel prices continue to rise, capacity decreases, and seat prices rise edging out most people from airline travel. The market will determine who can fly, and Greyhound will be back in business carrying those people who can't afford an airline ticket.
Option 2. The government at the behest of millions of low income voters re-regulates the industry. The result, airlines will cover all costs (a la pre-1978), capacity will decrease, and seat prices will rise. Greyhound will be back in business.

Either way the industry cannot keep flying via the current business model.

Prior to de-regulation, the airline industry was a luxury means of travel for the wealthy and business travelers. Life, as in business, is a cycle. We are returning to that part of the cycle.

I do believe however, that once prices rise, pay, benefits, and respect for this career will rise.

Just my opinion, I could be wrong.

Champ 42272

 

[ip241au]

Otto 77,

Stay in the military, get your pension, update your non-flying skills while you finish your 20 years. The airlines are not what you dream they are.

 

[AVRO_FO]

I was inspired to become an airline pilot for a number of reasons, namely the money, travel and free time.

Pause allowed for laughter to subside........

Ok, I used to read Len Morgan in Flying magazine. He wrote about his life in the airline industry that ended when Braniff folded. Now, my seven years in the industry were terrorist attacks, war, furlough, contract negotiations, went past a 30 day cooling off period, sham airline bankruptcy, more than a year and a half of pure reserve........blah, blah, blah.

I have gone back and re-read some of Len's articles. He wasn't speaking too highly of the industry, but in hindsight I probably thought "what does this guy know anyway"?

I just turned in my stuff for the second time. I spent the last year in the left seat and I think I gained ten years of experience in that time. But, I was making less than I was ten years ago and you know how expensive living is now, I hate to travel and even if I didn't you can't travel on 10 days off.

I have always said I love to fly. Sadly, the airline business is the enemy of a person's love to fly. You fly when, where and how the Man says to do it. I don't know how Pan Am guys were treated, but repeatedly I was treated with so much disrespect by gate agents, crew scheduling and dispatch while constantly barraged with memos from management that further undermined my feeling that I as captain had a say in what was happening ( example, who, how and when you can actually take a lunch break....attendance policies that seemed to defy the admonitions on the back of my medical certificate and so on).

I had a discussion with an FO right before I left. We talked about the things we thought we knew about airline flying before and after we got into it. We both agreed that most people just have to see for themselves. If you do get in, I wish you better luck than I had.

 

[HOUMAN]

Good Luck

I take everything I hear on Flt Info with a grain of salt, but about 4 years ago I read a quote on here that made me cringe. It was a response to a thread about the downward spiral of pilot pay. The quote was something like this... "I don't know why you all are complaining about pilot pay. I can't think of very many jobs that offer lots of travel and up to 50K a year without a college degree."

After that I realized that I made the wrong decision to leave active duty. Airline pilots are our own worst enemies. Do you and your family a favor and put your college degree to use.

 

[puddlejumper101]

Anyone who plans to stay in aviation should do themselves a favor and go to the www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net website and read it very carefully. This is not some tree hugger stuff guys, this is science and it is real. The capacity decline is beginning now in the airlines....and it is not going to come back. In all probability it will become to expensive for average people to fly within the next 20 years or so. Aviation by the mid 21st century will likely only be possible for the very rich and the government. I love flying as much as the rest of you but it is time to be realistic about it. Sorry to $hit on your doorstep but reality is now.

I agree with your post...except for one thing. Humans have always been pretty resiliant as a society. If something doesn't change then yes we are all doomed as a society...not just aviation but the economy as a whole. I am willing to bet that in five years airplanes will be running on something other than crude being shipped from overseas. The military is already testing synthetic fuels and some companies are testing biofules. When push comes to shove there is always a way. Airlines are fuel consumers like no other companies on Earth. I bet Airplanes will be running on something different soon...it's just a matter of who took advantage of the opportunity and who is left to fly around.

 

[Dumb Pilot]

Just go to where they are still paying good money to do the gig, I say

 

[Raskal]

Jeezus...after reading this I'm thinking of quitting and going into the military.

 

[rod farva]

Two words: Fly Boxes!

Ask those ABX guys how secure that cargo job is.

 

[Gulfstream 200]

Just go to where they are still paying good money to do the gig, I say

There is something to be said for this simple statement.

and its not in the domestic passenger ops - not at $130 Oil...

not good.

 

[RIDETHELIGHTING]

I agree with your post...except for one thing. Humans have always been pretty resiliant as a society. If something doesn't change then yes we are all doomed as a society...not just aviation but the economy as a whole. I am willing to bet that in five years airplanes will be running on something other than crude being shipped from overseas. The military is already testing synthetic fuels and some companies are testing biofules. When push comes to shove there is always a way. Airlines are fuel consumers like no other companies on Earth. I bet Airplanes will be running on something different soon...it's just a matter of who took advantage of the opportunity and who is left to fly around.

you are completely right. In two years we will have electric cars, and in three we will have hydrogen cars that are completely renewable. we don't need to be completely off oil we need just to reduce demand for it and as time goes by we wont need oil. I know we going to run out oil someday, but i find it hard to believe that we are just going sit by and let our world implode. If all the peak oil stuff happens last thing we need to worry about is what job or degree you have.

 

[goodgig]

At some point in the future, it will be TRAINS.
As soon as we learn how to build a decent rail system.
May be 3, 5 or 35 years from now, but it will happen.
Mag-lev, nuclear power plants, the whole deal.

 

[Marty Moose]

Jeezus...after reading this I'm thinking of quitting and going into the military.

Good the USAF needs Instructors to fly 172's in Iraq for 365 days at a time. I am not sure how to say, "Aimpoint, Airspeed, more left wing down & right rudder for the crosswind" in Arabic, but I am sure they will teach you. I know a couple people there right now that can't wait for you to get there and replace them. Let's keep some perspective people and not forget we are still fighting two wars and a lot of people are not around to kiss their kids. The retirement and benefits are great, but you definitely earn them after 20 years.

 

[Captain X]

what is your definition of "dream" job

(yes, I am serious)

One that involves many erotic situations with the girl in your avatar.

(yes, I am serious)

 

[Swass]

At some point in the future, it will be TRAINS.
As soon as we learn how to build a decent rail system.
May be 3, 5 or 35 years from now, but it will happen.
Mag-lev, nuclear power plants, the whole deal.

I knew it was only a matter of time before "Mag-Lev" came up....

 

[Vegaspilot99]

I think AVRO FO hit it pretty much right on the head for me. I love to fly and have wanted to be an airline pilot my entire life. But right now I'm pretty burnt out on flying. My desire to go to a major is all but gone and the lifestyle I thought I'd like, it turns out I hate. I like being home every night. Even though the flying job I have now allows that, I'm still thinking about doing something else in electronics/computers for a while and just flying part time to see how it feels. After growing up in a TWA family and seeing what it was, it's quite the downer to see where it is now. I'm going to finish up my degree...finally, and go from there. Good luck to all.

 

[ACL65PILOT]

It is not the job.
My father-in-law lost his business after 9/11. Home Depot moved all of their suppliers to Mexico. He lost his big contracts and everything went South. It sucks trying to start over at 56 years old. Same here. Our Issues is our ease of new pilots entering the industry and our ability to work for multiple companies. Make ones seniority list and give us all the ability to move around and sell our services like a Dr. or Lawyer can do, and we will see a huge increase in QOL, and longevity of this job.
Problem is now we are tied to a company that the hedge fund managers and our managers play with for a few years and then dump. We should not be penalized for this. If this happens in the normal world, you just get another job. Generally at equal or better pay. You have skills and experience that demands that. we do to.

 

[Mooseflyer]

Just go to where they are still paying good money to do the gig, I say

Ah, just like that eh? How many years have most of us had applications at UPS/FDX anyway? I've almost lost count....

 

[freight dork]

Ah, just like that eh? How many years have most of us had applications at UPS/FDX anyway? I've almost lost count....

Think outside of the box. UPS/FDX aren't the only good jobs in the world. There are plenty of good paying jobs overseas. Going rate for ATR and CRJ capts hovers around $10,000/month and more for larger equipment. I'd recommend a flying job outside of the USA to anybody who can do it. There is a serious shortage of qualified airline capts all over the world (excluding the USA) and airlines that are willing to pay well for experienced pilots. Personally I'm planning on staying mobile and chasing the cash and enjoying the adventure for the forseeable future.