the dream gone forever?

[felixf16]

The capacity decline is beginning now in the airlines....and it is not going to come back. In all probability it will become to expensive for average people to fly within the next 20 years or so.

Krew,

Unfortunately, I believe that you are spot-on here.

As part of an M&A course I recently completed, a "senior executive" of a merging major air carrier came in to chat with our class. Your words reflect his, and nearly verbatim. He stated flatly, "Airline seats will no longer be a commodity."

He went on to note that industry-wide capacity reduction will occur through both business combinations - he predicted three major carriers as surviving entities - and dissolutions.

Best to all,

Felix

 

[relief tube]

There's well over a dozen airline brands, all of which are in this constant battle to keep the others from killing them.

And even if there weren't $49 one way fares and $133 oil, the mere fact that the entire chunk of airline flying over the past 10 years has been divided by now twice as many carriers, everything's now diluted- from the routes to the planes to the schedules. You can only work for 1 airline so the diluting has led to less chance to increase QOL.

 

[Champ42272]

The "dream is alive" career in the major airline business is entirely a personal decision. But IMHO, there are two ways the industry can go from this point.

Option 1. Fuel prices continue to rise, capacity decreases, and seat prices rise edging out most people from airline travel. The market will determine who can fly, and Greyhound will be back in business carrying those people who can't afford an airline ticket.
Option 2. The government at the behest of millions of low income voters re-regulates the industry. The result, airlines will cover all costs (a la pre-1978), capacity will decrease, and seat prices will rise. Greyhound will be back in business.

Either way the industry cannot keep flying via the current business model.

Prior to de-regulation, the airline industry was a luxury means of travel for the wealthy and business travelers. Life, as in business, is a cycle. We are returning to that part of the cycle.

I do believe however, that once prices rise, pay, benefits, and respect for this career will rise.

Just my opinion, I could be wrong.

Champ 42272

 

[ip241au]

Otto 77,

Stay in the military, get your pension, update your non-flying skills while you finish your 20 years. The airlines are not what you dream they are.

 

[AVRO_FO]

I was inspired to become an airline pilot for a number of reasons, namely the money, travel and free time.

Pause allowed for laughter to subside........

Ok, I used to read Len Morgan in Flying magazine. He wrote about his life in the airline industry that ended when Braniff folded. Now, my seven years in the industry were terrorist attacks, war, furlough, contract negotiations, went past a 30 day cooling off period, sham airline bankruptcy, more than a year and a half of pure reserve........blah, blah, blah.

I have gone back and re-read some of Len's articles. He wasn't speaking too highly of the industry, but in hindsight I probably thought "what does this guy know anyway"?

I just turned in my stuff for the second time. I spent the last year in the left seat and I think I gained ten years of experience in that time. But, I was making less than I was ten years ago and you know how expensive living is now, I hate to travel and even if I didn't you can't travel on 10 days off.

I have always said I love to fly. Sadly, the airline business is the enemy of a person's love to fly. You fly when, where and how the Man says to do it. I don't know how Pan Am guys were treated, but repeatedly I was treated with so much disrespect by gate agents, crew scheduling and dispatch while constantly barraged with memos from management that further undermined my feeling that I as captain had a say in what was happening ( example, who, how and when you can actually take a lunch break....attendance policies that seemed to defy the admonitions on the back of my medical certificate and so on).

I had a discussion with an FO right before I left. We talked about the things we thought we knew about airline flying before and after we got into it. We both agreed that most people just have to see for themselves. If you do get in, I wish you better luck than I had.

 

[HOUMAN]

Good Luck

I take everything I hear on Flt Info with a grain of salt, but about 4 years ago I read a quote on here that made me cringe. It was a response to a thread about the downward spiral of pilot pay. The quote was something like this... "I don't know why you all are complaining about pilot pay. I can't think of very many jobs that offer lots of travel and up to 50K a year without a college degree."

After that I realized that I made the wrong decision to leave active duty. Airline pilots are our own worst enemies. Do you and your family a favor and put your college degree to use.

 

[puddlejumper101]

Anyone who plans to stay in aviation should do themselves a favor and go to the www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net website and read it very carefully. This is not some tree hugger stuff guys, this is science and it is real. The capacity decline is beginning now in the airlines....and it is not going to come back. In all probability it will become to expensive for average people to fly within the next 20 years or so. Aviation by the mid 21st century will likely only be possible for the very rich and the government. I love flying as much as the rest of you but it is time to be realistic about it. Sorry to $hit on your doorstep but reality is now.

I agree with your post...except for one thing. Humans have always been pretty resiliant as a society. If something doesn't change then yes we are all doomed as a society...not just aviation but the economy as a whole. I am willing to bet that in five years airplanes will be running on something other than crude being shipped from overseas. The military is already testing synthetic fuels and some companies are testing biofules. When push comes to shove there is always a way. Airlines are fuel consumers like no other companies on Earth. I bet Airplanes will be running on something different soon...it's just a matter of who took advantage of the opportunity and who is left to fly around.

 

[Dumb Pilot]

Just go to where they are still paying good money to do the gig, I say

 

[Raskal]

Jeezus...after reading this I'm thinking of quitting and going into the military.

 

[rod farva]

Two words: Fly Boxes!

Ask those ABX guys how secure that cargo job is.