ozpilot
Well-known member
- Joined
- Nov 26, 2001
- Posts
- 558
In my experience the easiest decisions regarding safety are the ones that are black and white.
Black - bad weather, issues with the airplane, crews fatigued
White - VFR weather, planes perfect, crews well rested and ready to go
The difficult decision comes when the circumstances fit between these two, the so called Grey area.
Grey - marginal weather, issue with the airplane but its legal to fly, crew is tired but not 'fatigued' (Thats a whole other discussion).
I do have one or two hard criteria in the grey area. For example I'll shoot an ILS to minimums. If I have to go missed I'll even shoot a second. But theres no way I'll do it the third time unless I'm convinced the weather is now above minimums.
But for the most part decision making in the grey area is subjective, based on the information available, past experience and finally 'gut feel'.
Bear in mind it is unlikely that you'll die in either the White (low risk) or Black (your on the ground) areas. Its the Grey area that can kill you every time. I'm very interested in the thought process that pilots go through in making the go/nogo decision when they are in this area. I think thats what pilotyip is getting at.
FWIW here are some of mine.
I try and get as much information as I can to help support my decision. I'll call dispatch, weather, maintenance and/or the chief pilot as necessary. If any of those individuals express doubt we don't go.
Most importantly I discuss the issue with my partner and get their input. If he or she is uncomfortable we dont go. Its not a 4 stripe decision, its a 7 stripe decision.
Now heres the hard part. Everone says your good to go but you still have a nagging doubt. What next?
I assume that whatever concern I have is going to get worse and I look at what options I have to deal with it when it does. In my view options are key to safety. If you have options you can avoid the accident. If you find yourself in a situation where there are few if any options you are unsafe.
If I have options that mitigate the risk I'll accept it, if not we dont go.
Heres two examples that I had to deal with recently.
The first involved weather. The weather at the destination was marginal. I talked it over with dispatch and came up with a suitable alternative and added extra fuel. We departed. That gave us the option and a plan if the weather deteriorated.
The second involved the aircraft. During the preflight I noticed that the vertical stabilizer show rub marks from the horizontal stab. As we were at a maintenance base I had them take a look at it. They said it was within tolerance and good to go. Observing it from the ground there was no binding during the flight control test. I discussed it with the FO.
He commented "Sure it looks good on the ground, but whats it going to do when we're at 43,000 ft doing .90 half way across the country?".
Excellent point! If it were to jam what options would we have? None. With the full support of the company we refused the aircraft.
This is a great discussion that goes to the core of the responsibility we all bear as professional pilots. I'm very interested to see what other pilots viewpoints are.
Black - bad weather, issues with the airplane, crews fatigued
White - VFR weather, planes perfect, crews well rested and ready to go
The difficult decision comes when the circumstances fit between these two, the so called Grey area.
Grey - marginal weather, issue with the airplane but its legal to fly, crew is tired but not 'fatigued' (Thats a whole other discussion).
I do have one or two hard criteria in the grey area. For example I'll shoot an ILS to minimums. If I have to go missed I'll even shoot a second. But theres no way I'll do it the third time unless I'm convinced the weather is now above minimums.
But for the most part decision making in the grey area is subjective, based on the information available, past experience and finally 'gut feel'.
Bear in mind it is unlikely that you'll die in either the White (low risk) or Black (your on the ground) areas. Its the Grey area that can kill you every time. I'm very interested in the thought process that pilots go through in making the go/nogo decision when they are in this area. I think thats what pilotyip is getting at.
FWIW here are some of mine.
I try and get as much information as I can to help support my decision. I'll call dispatch, weather, maintenance and/or the chief pilot as necessary. If any of those individuals express doubt we don't go.
Most importantly I discuss the issue with my partner and get their input. If he or she is uncomfortable we dont go. Its not a 4 stripe decision, its a 7 stripe decision.
Now heres the hard part. Everone says your good to go but you still have a nagging doubt. What next?
I assume that whatever concern I have is going to get worse and I look at what options I have to deal with it when it does. In my view options are key to safety. If you have options you can avoid the accident. If you find yourself in a situation where there are few if any options you are unsafe.
If I have options that mitigate the risk I'll accept it, if not we dont go.
Heres two examples that I had to deal with recently.
The first involved weather. The weather at the destination was marginal. I talked it over with dispatch and came up with a suitable alternative and added extra fuel. We departed. That gave us the option and a plan if the weather deteriorated.
The second involved the aircraft. During the preflight I noticed that the vertical stabilizer show rub marks from the horizontal stab. As we were at a maintenance base I had them take a look at it. They said it was within tolerance and good to go. Observing it from the ground there was no binding during the flight control test. I discussed it with the FO.
He commented "Sure it looks good on the ground, but whats it going to do when we're at 43,000 ft doing .90 half way across the country?".
Excellent point! If it were to jam what options would we have? None. With the full support of the company we refused the aircraft.
This is a great discussion that goes to the core of the responsibility we all bear as professional pilots. I'm very interested to see what other pilots viewpoints are.
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