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skykid said:Hey Boeingman, great to see you making another prediction!! You have been on the money so far - here's some of your past gems...
skykid said:
Pre bankruptcy...
Their achilles heal is going to be the lack of ability to secure DIP financing. They have jacked around for so long and burned through so much cash, without DIP they are finished.
Still a true statement. If you didn't get the DIP (at userous rates and gates) you'd of been toast. No one thought UAL was going to be able to get the money. Especially after the ATSB told you to pound sand. And the fact of the matter is UAL did piss away so much money that it was backed into a corner facing insolvency if it didn't get DIP money. I'm not sure what you guys are smoking over there but that is not a good financial position to be in.
skykid said:
Okay, got the DIP financing
Early this year...
As a side note, I spoke with Bethune in January and he said UAL wouldn't make it through March. He might be right.
An opinion. Voiced by many others as well.
skykid said:
Okay, made it through March
Circa March...
What is coming is in my opinion chapter 7 for UAL. If this war with Iraq takes place, and I think it will, it will doom UAL. Remember EAL was in the same position and ceased operations 3 days after the first gulf war started. UAL is in much more of a precarious position than they were at the time.
See above. I wouldn't get to cocky, you're far from being out of the financial woods yet.
skykid said:
To say there is no plan in place is complete nonsense. The LCO is a small, very low risk part of the restructering. With very little money spent they have managed to get all the major networks, Fox News, CNN, and all the news outlets in Denver talking about TED. Glorified rehash of the Shuttle? Please. I flew on the Shuttle and was one of the highest paid, least productive pilots ever (yes I would argue we were higher paid than Delta when you consider UAL pilot's "B" retirement plan). I wonder if cutting costs by 13mil a day will make a difference? Let's see what the CASM is next Summer when more of these reductions - esp mx related- are realized. My guess is cutting expenses by 5 billion a year will make the CASM go down, but I'm going to leave the predictions to you. Take care!
OK so on one side of your mouth you're saying this is a very small
low risk plan, yet everyone (albiet select UAL employees) knows UAL needs a major restructuring to survive. So what will the "grand plan" be then? Or do you guys think the DIP banks are going to continue watching the bleeding with no concerns? Face it, the only thing that has turned the financial picture around is been on the backs of the employees. It should be obvious that it is not enough...even under the protection from the courts.
The news networks are talking about TED? BFD, that isn't going to fill the seats. It would seem the real airline observers think this is another joke. Did you read Boyd's take on it? The number crunchers still say your nearest competitor's CASM is going to be lower.
What will really be the thing to watch is when UAL starts paying pre-pettion debt and lease obligations. If you are happy with this "plan" more power to you. Frankly. If I were at UAL I'd be scared to death about my airline career.
Good luck there kiddo. You're going to need it. Sooner or later your several hundred million a quarter losses are going to catch up to you at UAL. But look at the bright side.......they are down from the billion plus losses per quarter.
Yea, that's progress.
If I were at UAL I'd be scared to death about my airline career.
Mugs said:Just like you guys....twice.....and still counting.
Heavy Set said:Someone needs to fire the pot-smoking, 25 year old marketing GEEKS who came up with this screwy name. HA HA, real creative... I liked Starfish better - didn't General Lee refer to Starfish as a 1960s term for ANUS?
"Obviously, it's for somebody who is into sort of a free, independent-skier sort of lifestyle," he said. "They are playing to reality advertising. They are definitely trying to go low-cost. They are trying to create an Internet cult following." Yeah, good luck with that one.... The ski bums they are attempting to attract probably can't even afford Greyhound tickets - they are ski bums who work at ski resorts to ski FOR FREE.... Will TED provide free tickets to different ski resorts? Can the overhead bins accomodate large numbers of snow boards? Could not be lamer DUDE! I think DUDE would have been a better name, but I think American is considering it... [/B]
FLB717 said:Spinup,
The only thing different between me and a furloughed UAL guy is a thing called luck, I wasn’t called for the interview.
skykid said:I was hoping you would see by your predictions you have zero credibility. You can't even admit when you are wrong when I show you your own words! Did UAL get DIP financing? Yes or no! Did UAL make it through March? Yes or no! Did UAL make it through the war? Yes or no!
You bet the LCO is a small, low risk part of the restructuring. Less than 10% of the fleet on planes already being filled on routes already being flown.
UAL needs a major restructuring to survive? Duh. There is a little more going on than this LCO, in case you haven't been keeping up with current events.
What is the grand plan? I thought this might be obvious to even the most casual observer, but I'll give it to you in a nutshell. Keep the route structure in place while significantly reducing costs and maximizing revenue. UAL is catching up to others with regional feed and going after the revenue like I've not seen before. A lot of firsts in the advertising dept. UAL is gaining crediblilty in the restructuring process by leading the biggest half dozen carriers in on-time performance - 2 years running.
Pre-petition debt and lease obligations. Before you post anything else on the old "not paying their bills track," do some homework and find out what UAL has to account for every month in BK court. More homework - find out what just happened this week to the DIA pre-petition debt. I'll give you a hint, its the same thing that will happen to most of the other pre-petition debt.
Maybe if you concentrate really hard, you and Bethune can will some bad stuff to happen over here. I know UAL isn't out of the woods yet! Don't need to be told that.
spinup said:Boingman,
Don't be bitter, just because CAL couldn't hold DEN doesn’t mean UAL cant.
spinup said:Boeingman,
I'm sure you'll be touting UAL's demise long after their clear of bankrupcy.
ob·sti·nate
adj.
Stubbornly adhering to an attitude, opinion, or course of action
Difficult to manage, control, or subdue; refractory.
Difficult to alleviate or cure: an obstinate headache.
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Boeingman said:Seriously you're giving me to much credit , I could care less if you live or die. I didn't realize expressing an opinion was so taboo with you boys and girls. And they are all opinions not predictions.
Would you like a dictionary definition?
spinup said:Obviously, you do care. And in some twisted sense appear to revel in UAL's struggles. What else could be inferred from your apparent tenacity to this subject?
Boeingman said:Ah, playing psychologist are we? Struggles? According to some of your other brethren things are just rosy over there. I guess they are. I'd be just thrilled that in BK protection my company was only losing 3 to 4 hundred million a quarter.
Revel? I see, so by me pointing out what is the obvious and also mutually agreed (by many analyst's and industry observers) upon serious nature of UAL it is reveling in your "struggles". Wait, there is no struggle going on there so that point is invalid.
Seriously, UAL could live or die I really don't care. I don't think I have once gloated over the condition of your airline. If you feel that pointing out the obvious is I can't help you there.
spinup said:First, you choose only to align yourself only with the negativity surrounding UAL. It's your choice to "mutually agree" with the nattering nay bobs of negativity, damming positive analysis. However; time and time again it's led to your inaccurate predictions surrounding UAL. Here's an idea... Try a more rounded viewpoint, and maybe some of your ramblings will manifest themselves in reality, unlike your current track record.
spinup said:
Secondly, let’s call it what it is. Gloating. Go back and re-read your posts. If Gloating is not your intent, I suggest you take more care when you post. That being said, it would take more fortitude than you posses for you to be bothersome in that light.
spinup said:
Thirdly, most of my UAL "brethren" are fully aware of the negative issues surrounding BK. Yet we have the uncanny ability to see both sides of the issue. A trait you have yet to demonstrate.
spinup said:
Where in my posting did I mention any of the above, much like your predictions none of it occurred. What's so clear is your passing of non-factual information. Everything in the above statement is inane. Clearly you've lost your footing and have to resort to name calling, the first indication of a lost argument. Pity.
spinup said:
Thin skin? Read again the previous post ref. fortitude. You jumped on the offensive concerning gloating, just setting you straight. I stand by the above post, rightly so considering the retirement riff. More name calling? weak.
spinup said:
Huh? Above has no foundation in any beliefs I've expressed on this forum. Apparently your "friends" aren’t tapped in, I see the opposite, people trying hard to affect change. Yet another example of your imagination running away. No name calling though, so we have that going for us.
spinup said:
Does that mean that CAL will take a third trip thru BK?
spinup said:
Nope, haven't hit a nerve, thanks for checking. But apparently you’re about to blow a vein in your forehead given your school yard tactics.
spinup said:
Not sure I understand, Where did I post the words TORQUE or Brain surgeon. Not seeing it. Breath in, Breath out.....