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SWA profits off 77%

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http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/fetchFilingFrameset.aspx?dcn=0000092380-06-000020&Type=HTML

Liquidity and Capital Resources


Net cash provided by operating activities was $1.3 billion for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, compared to $2.1 billion in the same prior year period. The operating cash flows in both years were largely impacted by fluctuations in counterparty deposits associated with the Company’s fuel hedging program. There was a decrease in counterparty deposits of $270 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, versus an increase of $865 million during the nine months ended September 30, 2005. The decrease in these deposits during 2006 has been due to the decline in fair value of the Company’s fuel derivative portfolio from $1.7 billion at December 31, 2005, to $1.3 billion at September 30, 2006. The increase during 2005 was primarily due to a large increase in the fair value of the Company’s fuel derivative instruments, as a result of escalating energy prices during the first nine months of 2005. Cash flows from operating activities for the nine months ended September 30, 2006, were also driven by the $319 million increase in Air traffic liability, as a result of seasonal bookings for future travel, and the $442 million in net income. See Item 3, and Notes 5 and 8 to the unaudited condensed consolidated financial statements. Net cash provided by operating activities is primarily used to finance capital expenditures.


Net cash flows used in investing activities during the nine months ended September 30, 2006, totaled $1.1 billion compared to $876 million in 2005. Investing activities in both years consisted primarily of payments for new 737-700 aircraft delivered to the Company and progress payments for future aircraft deliveries. In addition, investing activities for both periods was impacted by changes in the balance of the Company’s short-term investments, namely auction rate securities. During the nine months ended September 30, 2006 and 2005, the Company’s short-term investments increased by $103 million and decreased by $72 million, respectively.


Net cash used in financing activities during the nine months ended September 30, 2006, was $468 million compared to $169 million generated from financing activities for the same period in 2005. During the nine months ended September 30, 2006, the Company repurchased $600 million of its Common Stock and redeemed $137 million of its debt on scheduled maturity dates. These outflows were partially offset by $226 million received from the exercise of Employee stock options. In the prior year, the Company generated $300 million from the February 2005 issuance of senior unsecured Notes due 2017. This was partially offset by cash used to redeem $100 million senior unsecured 8% Notes, $36 million used to repay other long-term and capital lease obligations, and to repurchase $55 million of the Company’s Common Stock.
 
I knew it was just a matter of time before the real world catches up with Southwest. There will be challenges ahead for them in all areas. Sometimes a reality check is so poetic. Good luck and welcome to the real world that all of the rest of us have to wake up to every day.

Just because you didn't make the cut, doesn't mean we are going to fail in our quest for World dominance.
 
Just because you didn't make the cut, doesn't mean we are going to fail in our quest for World dominance.


Let's just say for argumentative sake that I did make the cut,it still would not have changed my mind about the challenges that still lay ahead for Southwest. I really hope that you guys are able to hang to everything you can because that would bode well for the entire national pilot group. But I think the handwriting is on the wall. Good luck.
 
But I think the handwriting is on the wall. Good luck.

What handwriting are you looking at?

Compared to the same quarter last year:

1) Growth at 8%

2) Revenues up 16%..think about this one for a moment.

3) Unit costs minus fuel expense lower.

I hate to simplifiy the situation but I can't see the problem here.

Its a one time charge that our management elected to write off all at once during this last quarter. By no means does it reflect on the health of SWA.
 
I doubt you made the cut at SWA ... maybe FDX but not here. Nobody talks with such doom and gloom here.
 
I think the handwriting is on the wall.

How about--

That's how the cookie crumbles

A stitch in time saves nine

A penny saved is a penny earned

It can happen to anyone

Wait for your turn in the barrel

The sky is falling




Nothing against you Bubba. But Flightinfo seems to be a haven for catch phrases without info to back them up.
 
The Balance Sheet - No spin:
First 9 months, in millions:
Operating Rev: $6,810
Operating Exp: $6,050
Operating Income: $760 (up 30% from 05)
Other Exp: $71
Income B4 Taxes: $689
Income Taxes: $247
Net Income: $442
Net Cash provided by operating activities: $1,263
Cash and Equiv: $1,947 (after the capital purchases and stock buyback - below)
Purchases: $1,128 (Airplanes (30 so far this year) and equip)
Repurchase of stock: $600

Total Liabilities: $3,944 (Only $1,275 of which is long term debt)
Market Cap: $14,087

Barron's points out that SWA has the best balance sheet in the industry and only one which looks like any other non airline Fortune 500 company.
Sure looks like impending bankruptcy to me.
 
If I buy into your assumptions, I still can't come up with 2009 as a BK year for SWA.

It took much longer for Delta and NWA to go into BK after 9/11. They were both in trouble earlier in 2001 but didn't go into BK until 2005. I would start the clock the year SWA starts posting losses. Then I would assume at least 3-5 years until BK.
I simply making a prediction on what I believe is going to happen. 2007 is proabaly going to be a very bad year for non-corporate travel, maybe the worst in many years. Next year home loans across the US need refinancing from the arm loans. NWA's domestic operation lost billions, the reason the company didn't fold is because losses were offset by international travel and cargo.

Also SWA profits have continued to slide over the years relative to their unit size. In other words they had less airplanes and made more money per airplane then they do now; furthermore, they continue to increase capacity. If this trend continues and the economy dips a little bit, which it is predicted to do, SWA may fall below profitable capacity. At that point for SWA to make the necessary changes to the model that will return them profitabilty, they will have to enter bankruptcy protection. However, they could resturture outside of bankruptcy and run the risks associated with that. Although, the best move at that point may be to merge with another airline. Preferably another LCC, which, most of legacies are already.
 
I knew it was just a matter of time before the real world catches up with Southwest. There will be challenges ahead for them in all areas. Sometimes a reality check is so poetic. Good luck and welcome to the real world that all of the rest of us have to wake up to every day.

What is this "real world" that you speak of?

Could it be....Bankruptcies? Pay and benefit loss? Poor business plans? Putting your airline out for sale? Executive bonus programs? Cutting employees and claiming to be more efficient, yet maintaining the same old ( and failed) inefficient hub and spoke business model? Pension terminations? Having an airplane sit at the gate for 55 minutes to 1+15 during a turn? Rampers still unloading and loading bags the old "union" way?

What is it?

Tejas
 
I simply making a prediction on what I believe is going to happen. 2007 is proabaly going to be a very bad year for non-corporate travel, maybe the worst in many years....

furthermore, they continue to increase capacity. If this trend continues and the economy dips a little bit, which it is predicted to do, SWA may fall below profitable capacity.

I hear you. Not arguing your assumption 2007 will be a bad year. We will see.

I just don't see how you go from over 2.9B in the bank will little debt and over 4B in assets available to leverage to BK in 3 years.

Remember, all the capacity increases were matched by capacity reductions elsewhere. It's easy to stop the capacity growth, temporarily park airplanes and stop hiring if you are growing. Its not like the pain of furloughing and creating a waterfall of training events. If some '300s got parked it would drastically DECREASE SWA's fuel and maintenance bill. Open time and overtime for pilots would dry up and monthly pay would go down. If you don't fly the planes a lot of expenses simply aren't there.

But lower oil is already helping the economy. The spike up didn't hurt it as bad as some thought either. MHO, but the fallout may show up in 2007.
 
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What is this "real world" that you speak of?

Could it be....Bankruptcies? Pay and benefit loss? Poor business plans? Putting your airline out for sale? Executive bonus programs? Cutting employees and claiming to be more efficient, yet maintaining the same old ( and failed) inefficient hub and spoke business model? Pension terminations? Having an airplane sit at the gate for 55 minutes to 1+15 during a turn? Rampers still unloading and loading bags the old "union" way?

What is it?

Tejas
Your cost are soon to be higher than revenue generated from a myriad of operational areas.The flight deck is just one example. Look at what other carriers are paying their flight deck crew members,not to mention their rampers,gate agents, and the list goes on and on. Fuel hedges are slowly running out,point to point flying is becoming less and less profitable as the other LCC's enter and cherry pick the lowest hanging fruit. I believe you will all wake up someday and wonder just what the heck has happened to our nirvana. Pride cometh before the fall.
 
I hear you. Not arguing your assumption 2007 will be a bad year. We will see.

I just don't see how you go from over 2.9B in the bank will little debt and over 4B in assets available to leverage to BK in 3 years.

Remember, all the capacity increases were matched by capacity reductions elsewhere. It's easy to stop the capacity growth, temporarily park airplanes and stop hiring if you are growing. Its not like the pain of furloughing and creating a waterfall of training events. If some '300s got parked it would drastically DECREASE SWA's fuel and maintenance bill. Open time and overtime for pilots would dry up and monthly pay would go down. If you don't fly the planes a lot of expenses simply aren't there.

But lower oil is already helping the economy. The spike up didn't hurt it as bad as some thought either. MHO, but the fallout may show up in 2007.
I'm not saying they will run out of money, it's just that bankruptcy allows you to make drastic but necessary changes to the business model without destroying the company. SWA's mission statement is to serve the employee and the customer is secondary, that's only possible when your tickets are the lowest price. Remember, your next $10 fare increase put's food, blankets, pillows, and a TV in every seatback on NWA.
 
Why I caution everyone, is because in my opinion, SWA will be in bankruptcy without major labor cuts by 2009; .

You are almost as full of it as lowcur. look at our capitalization and think again. Wishing it doesn't make it true.
 
You are almost as full of it as lowcur. Pleeease....I don't see WN in BK, unless the world economy takes a poop. look at our capitalization and think again. Wishing it doesn't make it true.
My only remarks are about the hubris posted from individuals who are clueless that the gravytrain will continue without some serious changes. My solution of the E-jets to save the current rate structure is just only one of a few options that also include a reduction of rates in the neighborhood of 20% if SWAPA insists on no E-jets on the property. Of course SWAPA will continue to play watch and see for 24 months, and then there will be a revolt within the membership to replace the current reps.

:pimp:​
 
Wasn't it around 150 million before the one time charge for "unrealized losses" due to the hedge position. That would be the decrease in the value of the futures contracts set to expire at a later date, because of the recent drop in oil prices. This in essence is a paper loss right now, and real dollar losses won't be seen until the positions are settled. 150 million is not that great. I know challenges are still ahead, but all the doom and gloom over this particular quarter is a little overstated. Someone please correct me if I am wrong.
 
My only remarks are about the hubris posted from individuals who are clueless that the gravytrain will continue without some serious changes. My solution of the E-jets to save the current rate structure is just only one of a few options that also include a reduction of rates in the neighborhood of 20% if SWAPA insists on no E-jets on the property. Of course SWAPA will continue to play watch and see for 24 months, and then there will be a revolt within the membership to replace the current reps.

I use to think you were funny typing away with your retarded blue ink. I think you might have smoked way to much crack, this time. Why don't we change gears and talk about airlines that are already BROKE, instead of hoping that someday, ours breaks. Here some good future topics for your HOMO blue type. Will NWA make it? Will DAL make it? Will jetBlue get on track again? Who will CAL buy? How many of these SWA bashers, didn't get offered a job here and now hate us?
 
Predicting the demise of Southwest Airlines. Its good to see a 35 year old tradition continue. May it last another 35 years!! :beer:
 
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