Swa Pool

[Tanker Clown]

It's going to be a net gain of 5. Might want to start looking elsewhere for employment.

Man....you guys going to believe me now.

 

[FlyByNight1]

Hey Tanker, its not that people dont want to believe you, we're all just looking for a little good news. Just a kid with a dream here.....

 

[ballgag]

Well, Tanker clown, if Southwest does not work out for you, you could always jump in front of a tug....

 

[WNC Flyer]

Spoke to a friend (SWA Capt) who was in training yesterday. They were told the next class after Jan 9th will be 2nd quarter 2008.

They were also told that SWA's new hiring projection for all of 2008 was less than 150 pilots, due to reduced expansion and reduced retirements (Age 65.)

Sorry for the bad news. Hopefully it will be better than what my friend was told.

150 in addition to what's in the pool or only taking 150 out of the pool? Please say option 1!


All this news just motivated me to republish my apps.

 

[ballgag]

150 in addition to what's in the pool or only taking 150 out of the pool? Please say option 1!


All this news just motivated me to republish my apps.

Talked to Sandy last Monday, before age 65 crap sandwich. She indicated there were probably enough in the pool to fill projected needs for 08.

I asked if they were going to start reviewing apps. starting in January for possible interviews....the answer was "NO". However she did say they were interviewing for 'special scholarships' for 737 type ratings; WIA, OBAP, etc.; so get boobs

 

[navigatro]

150 in addition to what's in the pool or only taking 150 out of the pool? Please say option 1!


All this news just motivated me to republish my apps.

Unfortunately, he was told only 150 pilots hired (total) for 2008. The rest of the pool would not be drained until 2009. If accurate, it would mean no interviews for a long time.

 

[vixin]

This is true, but it is based on todays news. Tomorrow can be a totaly different story. I truly feel for those swimming. I wish the rule didnt change. Good luck and do whats best for you.

 

[FlyinGuy]

Guys...it sucks floating in the pool for a long time. The excitement kinda washes off after a while. My suggestion is to "STEP BACK AND TRY TO WALK AWAY FROM THE FLIGHTINFO ADDICTION". Right now things are not looking great for 08 hiring. That could change quickly but I would not count on it. The age 65 stings, but the slow in deliveries is what hurts new hires most. We have always hired because we were growing, not because of retirements. good luck to all swimmers!!!

 

[NoCompromise]

I don't believe anyone (even the PD) who says hiring "won't change much" with Age 65.

Spoke to a friend (SWA Capt) who was in training yesterday. They were told the next class after Jan 9th will be 2nd quarter 2008.

They were also told that SWA's new hiring projection for all of 2008 was less than 150 pilots, due to reduced expansion and reduced retirements (Age 65.)

Sorry for the bad news. Hopefully it will be better than what my friend was told.

The rumor quoted above makes total sense just based on numbers. Supposedly 130-150 CA's are scheduled to retire in 08. My guess is that only 1/4 of them will opt to retire. Even though the VAST majority should be financially set, they are making huge bank for flying the best trips. If it's too grueling, they can always drop a trip or two every month. Plus, it might be hard for many guys to leave the aviation world behind since it's probably been a part of their entire adult life. My $0.02 is that most of them will think "Why not stick around for another year or two flying a reduced schedule and see how I feel? I can quit anytime I like, but if I leave now I can never go back." Delaying retirement even a few years dramatically reduces your required nest egg. Even if you're not saving a ton of money every year for those last few years, you're not dipping into your savings either.

SWA's new numbers are 5-10 aircraft to be gained in 08. However, the numbers over the past 6 months or so have gone from 34 to 19 to 5-10. If oil goes up and/or the economy goes down, or a butterfly flaps its wings the wrong way in Africa then that estimate could quickly go to a big goose egg.

Let's just WAG 50 retirements (midway between a low of 0 and a probable high of 100) and 5 new aircraft (midway between a low of 0 and a high of 10) for a rough median of 100 pilots hired next year. Especially with the economy and oil prices in such flux right now, they would be foolish to front load their hiring. There is absolutely zero reason for them to 'overcommit' to hiring at this point. Assuming they keep the Jan 9 class, then a 2nd Quarter date for class 2 sound very realistic. I would guess that the remaining 3 classes would be spaced over the remainder of the year.

In the few years that I've been following (stalking?) SWA, I've come to a few conclusions. No one disputes that their management is one of best (if not THE best) out there that has consistently made good, conservative, forward-thinking decisions. The touch-feely, happy culture of SWA is what sold me on the company, but beneath that giddy exterior beats the heart (CPU?) of a business terminator. The numbers don't lie, and SWA has teams of analysts much smarter than you or me running decision models. They will do the smart thing, and right now the smart thing is not to expand too quickly - which means not too planes and not too many pilots. It's bad news for poolies short-term, but good news long-term since the company appears to be behaving very rationally under the current conditions. Everyone had better learn an efficient method of treading water, because we could be in here for a while!

 

[FlyByNight1]

I previously asked if anyone knows the aircraft delivery schedule. I know the net gain of 5-10 for 08, but when. It would have a greater impact on class dates if those aircraft werent scheduled to come online until Nov of 08. However if they plan to take delivery early in the year, the classes might be a little closer than estimated.