Swa Pool

[CHQ Pilot]

I previously asked if anyone knows the aircraft delivery schedule. I know the net gain of 5-10 for 08, but when. It would have a greater impact on class dates if those aircraft werent scheduled to come online until Nov of 08. However if they plan to take delivery early in the year, the classes might be a little closer than estimated.

Everything is kind of up in the air. It is a net gain so there will be some ups and downs as some of the aircraft leave the fleet (2 -300s gone by the end of December and 2 more in January). The company will probably weather some interim short staffing needs. Though we may be scheduled to receive more aircraft at the start of the year, SWA may hold the hiring numbers down if we are to return aicraft just a few months later. Last year the deliveries were somewhat front ended, so even with the slowdown of classes at the end of the year, it was somewhat expected since deliveries were also scheduled to taper off. The company I've heard is looking at all kinds of options such as selling delivery positions and returning or selling some of the -700s. I'm sure the delivery schedule for what aircraft we will take is not set and will change throughout the year. Things can change fast; this time last year they were saying we couldn't get aircraft fast enough (hence buying the Ford and AirSahara aircraft). If there was some consolidation in the industry, which almost seems a given at this point, the model will change overnight.

 

[Truckdriver]

If there was some consolidation in the industry, which almost seems a given at this point, the model will change overnight.

That is your only hope in the short term. If legacies merge and cut capacity, SWA will jump in and fill the capacity that gets cut. They have done it every single time a downturn occurs and I suspect they are waiting to see where they can expand when legacies merge and cut back.

 

[FR8dognit]

That is your only hope in the short term. If legacies merge and cut capacity, SWA will jump in and fill the capacity that gets cut. They have done it every single time a downturn occurs and I suspect they are waiting to see where they can expand when legacies merge and cut back.

Very possible. We seem to be in a good position for something like that.

For quick expansion all we would have to do is slow # of aircraft retired.

Anyone know if we could get the options back on aircraft deferals?

Good post truck!!

For those of you in the pool...hang in there. In the short time I have been here things have changed in a matter of hours at times. You are still in a position many would love to be in.

 

[flint4xx]

You guys are dreamin'. The SW heyday is gone. The culture will soon be a memory. Growth, ...not. 10 year CA if your lucky. They're gonna' be coming after our pay soon. Don't fall for the propaganda.

 

[zippy32]

You guys are dreamin'. The SW heyday is gone. The culture will soon be a memory. Growth, ...not. 10 year CA if your lucky. They're gonna' be coming after our pay soon. Don't fall for the propaganda.

Gosh, I think you are right. I might as well give up my slot in the next scheduled class. Even if I make it to class SWA is sure to fold in the coming months. What was I thinking. Thanks for setting me (and us all) straight. God Bless You!

 

[Phil O'Sopher]

Quote: "The rumor quoted above makes total sense just based on numbers. Supposedly 130-150 CA's are scheduled to retire in 08. My guess is that only 1/4 of them will opt to retire."

With all due respect to the poster, I would be surprised to see more than 5-10 Captains voluntarily retire in 2008. Just ask yourself how many retired voluntarily before they hit 60? The ability to tailor your schedule at that pay level with full benefits will be too hard to walk away from for most pilots (or their wives or girlfriends..or both). Unless something dramatic happens in the industry, which is not without precedent, I will be surprised if SWA hires more than 100 in 2008. That's the possible downside to prepare for. Good luck to all.

 

[SWAlifter]

Gosh, I think you are right. I might as well give up my slot in the next scheduled class. Even if I make it to class SWA is sure to fold in the coming months. What was I thinking. Thanks for setting me (and us all) straight. God Bless You!

Zipper, we're super-looking foward to your smart a$$ attitude. Unfortunately for you that won't be for quite a while now. Don't take what Flint4XX said too lightly. The culture here has been changing rapidly during my 6+ years here. Guess which direction. You're not going to be so flippant when you've been sitting right seat hear for 10+ years, and that's optimistic.

 

[Zdriver]

These quotes by Mr. Kelly are a week old, but it supports the Idea that WN might expand at more then the 4-5%.

Southwest sees higher fares, mergers
Friday December 7, 9:21 pm ET
By Chris Reiter

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Southwest Airlines Co, the leading U.S. low-cost carrier, expects soaring fuel costs to lead to higher fares and possibly push rivals into mergers, its chief executive said on Wednesday.
"It feels like fares will need to continue to rise on an annual basis because costs are escalating rapidly," Gary Kelly said at the Reuters Aerospace and Defense Summit in Washington.

Oil prices, which hit record levels in recent weeks, are driving up the cost of jet fuel. Combined with a darkening outlook for the U.S. economy, the U.S. airline industry, which emerged from a five-year slump in 2006, may be heading for another rough patch. "There is a lot of peril that remains," Kelly said. The recent run-up in oil "isn't a spike. We're at a new level. The industry hasn't adjusted to it yet. We haven't adjusted to it yet."

Higher fuel costs could help cripple the industry's hard-won turnaround, which has come through deep wage cuts and reduced fleets. But airlines remain vulnerable and may look to merge to survive.
"You will have a recession some time, and the impact on the airline industry will be dramatic," said Kelly. "All of that leads to consolidation, I think."

Southwest, one of the few U.S. carriers to consistently post profits, is adjusting to rising fuel, labor, and airport costs by looking to boost revenue, with new products like its Business Select fares, which come with faster boarding and a cocktail on board.

The new initiatives, which also may include on-board Internet and code share agreements with an international carrier, are expected to boost revenue by more than $1 billion by 2010, but they may not be enough on their own to keep from boosting fares, Kelly said.

Southwest is better positioned than its rivals because of its aggressive fuel hedges, which have locked in prices well below the current level.
Those hedges are likely to generate a gain of "a couple hundred million dollars" in the fourth quarter, Kelly said.

Still, even with this protection, Southwest expects its costs per available seat mile, or unit costs, to rise by 4 percent this year and by "mid-single digits" in 2008. Despite plans to rein in growth in 2008, Southwest may expand capacity faster than the currently planned 4 percent to 5 percent rate. "If our competitors start retreating, that may cause us to change our mind and accelerate our growth plan," Kelly said. "If the airline industry is shrinking, obviously that puts us in a great position to pick up additional passengers."

Wall Street has been concerned about Southwest's ability to offset its unwinding hedges -- the company loses a bunch of its protection after 2008.
The shares have fallen about 10 percent this year. Still, the stock has fared better than the overall sector. The Amex airline index is down about 30 percent. On Wednesday afternoon, Southwest shares were down 13 cents at $13.67 on the New York Stock Exchange.

 

[flint4xx]

Gosh, I think you are right. I might as well give up my slot in the next scheduled class. Even if I make it to class SWA is sure to fold in the coming months. What was I thinking. Thanks for setting me (and us all) straight. God Bless You!

And they love to hire naive pilots...

By all means, come join us. After you get out of class and away from Dallas, you'll find a different company.

 

[LearLove]

not me but have a friend (ASA ATR Capt) who is not on this board.

Interviewed late summer 2007, hired and got his type this fall. placed in pool this month (dec 07). we will call him "Snake". Updated list in next post.