Tanker Clown
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Swa Pool
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FlyByNight1
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WNC Flyer
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150 in addition to what's in the pool or only taking 150 out of the pool? Please say option 1!
All this news just motivated me to republish my apps.
ballgag
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Talked to Sandy last Monday, before age 65 crap sandwich. She indicated there were probably enough in the pool to fill projected needs for 08.
I asked if they were going to start reviewing apps. starting in January for possible interviews....the answer was "NO". However she did say they were interviewing for 'special scholarships' for 737 type ratings; WIA, OBAP, etc.; so get boobs
Unfortunately, he was told only 150 pilots hired (total) for 2008. The rest of the pool would not be drained until 2009. If accurate, it would mean no interviews for a long time.
Guys...it sucks floating in the pool for a long time. The excitement kinda washes off after a while. My suggestion is to "STEP BACK AND TRY TO WALK AWAY FROM THE FLIGHTINFO ADDICTION". Right now things are not looking great for 08 hiring. That could change quickly but I would not count on it. The age 65 stings, but the slow in deliveries is what hurts new hires most. We have always hired because we were growing, not because of retirements. good luck to all swimmers!!!
NoCompromise
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I don't believe anyone (even the PD) who says hiring "won't change much" with Age 65.
The rumor quoted above makes total sense just based on numbers. Supposedly 130-150 CA's are scheduled to retire in 08. My guess is that only 1/4 of them will opt to retire. Even though the VAST majority should be financially set, they are making huge bank for flying the best trips. If it's too grueling, they can always drop a trip or two every month. Plus, it might be hard for many guys to leave the aviation world behind since it's probably been a part of their entire adult life. My $0.02 is that most of them will think "Why not stick around for another year or two flying a reduced schedule and see how I feel? I can quit anytime I like, but if I leave now I can never go back." Delaying retirement even a few years dramatically reduces your required nest egg. Even if you're not saving a ton of money every year for those last few years, you're not dipping into your savings either.
SWA's new numbers are 5-10 aircraft to be gained in 08. However, the numbers over the past 6 months or so have gone from 34 to 19 to 5-10. If oil goes up and/or the economy goes down, or a butterfly flaps its wings the wrong way in Africa then that estimate could quickly go to a big goose egg.
Let's just WAG 50 retirements (midway between a low of 0 and a probable high of 100) and 5 new aircraft (midway between a low of 0 and a high of 10) for a rough median of 100 pilots hired next year. Especially with the economy and oil prices in such flux right now, they would be foolish to front load their hiring. There is absolutely zero reason for them to 'overcommit' to hiring at this point. Assuming they keep the Jan 9 class, then a 2nd Quarter date for class 2 sound very realistic. I would guess that the remaining 3 classes would be spaced over the remainder of the year.
In the few years that I've been following (stalking?) SWA, I've come to a few conclusions. No one disputes that their management is one of best (if not THE best) out there that has consistently made good, conservative, forward-thinking decisions. The touch-feely, happy culture of SWA is what sold me on the company, but beneath that giddy exterior beats the heart (CPU?) of a business terminator. The numbers don't lie, and SWA has teams of analysts much smarter than you or me running decision models. They will do the smart thing, and right now the smart thing is not to expand too quickly - which means not too planes and not too many pilots. It's bad news for poolies short-term, but good news long-term since the company appears to be behaving very rationally under the current conditions. Everyone had better learn an efficient method of treading water, because we could be in here for a while!
The rumor quoted above makes total sense just based on numbers. Supposedly 130-150 CA's are scheduled to retire in 08. My guess is that only 1/4 of them will opt to retire. Even though the VAST majority should be financially set, they are making huge bank for flying the best trips. If it's too grueling, they can always drop a trip or two every month. Plus, it might be hard for many guys to leave the aviation world behind since it's probably been a part of their entire adult life. My $0.02 is that most of them will think "Why not stick around for another year or two flying a reduced schedule and see how I feel? I can quit anytime I like, but if I leave now I can never go back." Delaying retirement even a few years dramatically reduces your required nest egg. Even if you're not saving a ton of money every year for those last few years, you're not dipping into your savings either.
SWA's new numbers are 5-10 aircraft to be gained in 08. However, the numbers over the past 6 months or so have gone from 34 to 19 to 5-10. If oil goes up and/or the economy goes down, or a butterfly flaps its wings the wrong way in Africa then that estimate could quickly go to a big goose egg.
Let's just WAG 50 retirements (midway between a low of 0 and a probable high of 100) and 5 new aircraft (midway between a low of 0 and a high of 10) for a rough median of 100 pilots hired next year. Especially with the economy and oil prices in such flux right now, they would be foolish to front load their hiring. There is absolutely zero reason for them to 'overcommit' to hiring at this point. Assuming they keep the Jan 9 class, then a 2nd Quarter date for class 2 sound very realistic. I would guess that the remaining 3 classes would be spaced over the remainder of the year.
In the few years that I've been following (stalking?) SWA, I've come to a few conclusions. No one disputes that their management is one of best (if not THE best) out there that has consistently made good, conservative, forward-thinking decisions. The touch-feely, happy culture of SWA is what sold me on the company, but beneath that giddy exterior beats the heart (CPU?) of a business terminator. The numbers don't lie, and SWA has teams of analysts much smarter than you or me running decision models. They will do the smart thing, and right now the smart thing is not to expand too quickly - which means not too planes and not too many pilots. It's bad news for poolies short-term, but good news long-term since the company appears to be behaving very rationally under the current conditions. Everyone had better learn an efficient method of treading water, because we could be in here for a while!
FlyByNight1
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I previously asked if anyone knows the aircraft delivery schedule. I know the net gain of 5-10 for 08, but when. It would have a greater impact on class dates if those aircraft werent scheduled to come online until Nov of 08. However if they plan to take delivery early in the year, the classes might be a little closer than estimated.
CHQ Pilot
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Everything is kind of up in the air. It is a net gain so there will be some ups and downs as some of the aircraft leave the fleet (2 -300s gone by the end of December and 2 more in January). The company will probably weather some interim short staffing needs. Though we may be scheduled to receive more aircraft at the start of the year, SWA may hold the hiring numbers down if we are to return aicraft just a few months later. Last year the deliveries were somewhat front ended, so even with the slowdown of classes at the end of the year, it was somewhat expected since deliveries were also scheduled to taper off. The company I've heard is looking at all kinds of options such as selling delivery positions and returning or selling some of the -700s. I'm sure the delivery schedule for what aircraft we will take is not set and will change throughout the year. Things can change fast; this time last year they were saying we couldn't get aircraft fast enough (hence buying the Ford and AirSahara aircraft). If there was some consolidation in the industry, which almost seems a given at this point, the model will change overnight.
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Truckdriver
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That is your only hope in the short term. If legacies merge and cut capacity, SWA will jump in and fill the capacity that gets cut. They have done it every single time a downturn occurs and I suspect they are waiting to see where they can expand when legacies merge and cut back.
FR8dognit
Good Ole'boys club member
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- 249
Very possible. We seem to be in a good position for something like that.
For quick expansion all we would have to do is slow # of aircraft retired.
Anyone know if we could get the options back on aircraft deferals?
Good post truck!!
For those of you in the pool...hang in there. In the short time I have been here things have changed in a matter of hours at times. You are still in a position many would love to be in.
Gosh, I think you are right. I might as well give up my slot in the next scheduled class. Even if I make it to class SWA is sure to fold in the coming months. What was I thinking. Thanks for setting me (and us all) straight. God Bless You!
Phil O'Sopher
Active member
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- Dec 6, 2001
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- 39
Quote: "The rumor quoted above makes total sense just based on numbers. Supposedly 130-150 CA's are scheduled to retire in 08. My guess is that only 1/4 of them will opt to retire."
With all due respect to the poster, I would be surprised to see more than 5-10 Captains voluntarily retire in 2008. Just ask yourself how many retired voluntarily before they hit 60? The ability to tailor your schedule at that pay level with full benefits will be too hard to walk away from for most pilots (or their wives or girlfriends..or both). Unless something dramatic happens in the industry, which is not without precedent, I will be surprised if SWA hires more than 100 in 2008. That's the possible downside to prepare for. Good luck to all.
With all due respect to the poster, I would be surprised to see more than 5-10 Captains voluntarily retire in 2008. Just ask yourself how many retired voluntarily before they hit 60? The ability to tailor your schedule at that pay level with full benefits will be too hard to walk away from for most pilots (or their wives or girlfriends..or both). Unless something dramatic happens in the industry, which is not without precedent, I will be surprised if SWA hires more than 100 in 2008. That's the possible downside to prepare for. Good luck to all.
Gosh, I think you are right. I might as well give up my slot in the next scheduled class. Even if I make it to class SWA is sure to fold in the coming months. What was I thinking. Thanks for setting me (and us all) straight. God Bless You!
Zipper, we're super-looking foward to your smart a$$ attitude. Unfortunately for you that won't be for quite a while now. Don't take what Flint4XX said too lightly. The culture here has been changing rapidly during my 6+ years here. Guess which direction. You're not going to be so flippant when you've been sitting right seat hear for 10+ years, and that's optimistic.
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Zdriver
Well-known member
- Joined
- Dec 4, 2007
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- 52
These quotes by Mr. Kelly are a week old, but it supports the Idea that WN might expand at more then the 4-5%.
Southwest sees higher fares, mergers
Friday December 7, 9:21 pm ET
By Chris Reiter
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Southwest Airlines Co, the leading U.S. low-cost carrier, expects soaring fuel costs to lead to higher fares and possibly push rivals into mergers, its chief executive said on Wednesday.
"It feels like fares will need to continue to rise on an annual basis because costs are escalating rapidly," Gary Kelly said at the Reuters Aerospace and Defense Summit in Washington.
Oil prices, which hit record levels in recent weeks, are driving up the cost of jet fuel. Combined with a darkening outlook for the U.S. economy, the U.S. airline industry, which emerged from a five-year slump in 2006, may be heading for another rough patch. "There is a lot of peril that remains," Kelly said. The recent run-up in oil "isn't a spike. We're at a new level. The industry hasn't adjusted to it yet. We haven't adjusted to it yet."
Higher fuel costs could help cripple the industry's hard-won turnaround, which has come through deep wage cuts and reduced fleets. But airlines remain vulnerable and may look to merge to survive.
"You will have a recession some time, and the impact on the airline industry will be dramatic," said Kelly. "All of that leads to consolidation, I think."
Southwest, one of the few U.S. carriers to consistently post profits, is adjusting to rising fuel, labor, and airport costs by looking to boost revenue, with new products like its Business Select fares, which come with faster boarding and a cocktail on board.
The new initiatives, which also may include on-board Internet and code share agreements with an international carrier, are expected to boost revenue by more than $1 billion by 2010, but they may not be enough on their own to keep from boosting fares, Kelly said.
Southwest is better positioned than its rivals because of its aggressive fuel hedges, which have locked in prices well below the current level.
Those hedges are likely to generate a gain of "a couple hundred million dollars" in the fourth quarter, Kelly said.
Still, even with this protection, Southwest expects its costs per available seat mile, or unit costs, to rise by 4 percent this year and by "mid-single digits" in 2008. Despite plans to rein in growth in 2008, Southwest may expand capacity faster than the currently planned 4 percent to 5 percent rate. "If our competitors start retreating, that may cause us to change our mind and accelerate our growth plan," Kelly said. "If the airline industry is shrinking, obviously that puts us in a great position to pick up additional passengers."
Wall Street has been concerned about Southwest's ability to offset its unwinding hedges -- the company loses a bunch of its protection after 2008.
The shares have fallen about 10 percent this year. Still, the stock has fared better than the overall sector. The Amex airline index is down about 30 percent. On Wednesday afternoon, Southwest shares were down 13 cents at $13.67 on the New York Stock Exchange.
Southwest sees higher fares, mergers
Friday December 7, 9:21 pm ET
By Chris Reiter
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Southwest Airlines Co, the leading U.S. low-cost carrier, expects soaring fuel costs to lead to higher fares and possibly push rivals into mergers, its chief executive said on Wednesday.
"It feels like fares will need to continue to rise on an annual basis because costs are escalating rapidly," Gary Kelly said at the Reuters Aerospace and Defense Summit in Washington.
Oil prices, which hit record levels in recent weeks, are driving up the cost of jet fuel. Combined with a darkening outlook for the U.S. economy, the U.S. airline industry, which emerged from a five-year slump in 2006, may be heading for another rough patch. "There is a lot of peril that remains," Kelly said. The recent run-up in oil "isn't a spike. We're at a new level. The industry hasn't adjusted to it yet. We haven't adjusted to it yet."
Higher fuel costs could help cripple the industry's hard-won turnaround, which has come through deep wage cuts and reduced fleets. But airlines remain vulnerable and may look to merge to survive.
"You will have a recession some time, and the impact on the airline industry will be dramatic," said Kelly. "All of that leads to consolidation, I think."
Southwest, one of the few U.S. carriers to consistently post profits, is adjusting to rising fuel, labor, and airport costs by looking to boost revenue, with new products like its Business Select fares, which come with faster boarding and a cocktail on board.
The new initiatives, which also may include on-board Internet and code share agreements with an international carrier, are expected to boost revenue by more than $1 billion by 2010, but they may not be enough on their own to keep from boosting fares, Kelly said.
Southwest is better positioned than its rivals because of its aggressive fuel hedges, which have locked in prices well below the current level.
Those hedges are likely to generate a gain of "a couple hundred million dollars" in the fourth quarter, Kelly said.
Still, even with this protection, Southwest expects its costs per available seat mile, or unit costs, to rise by 4 percent this year and by "mid-single digits" in 2008. Despite plans to rein in growth in 2008, Southwest may expand capacity faster than the currently planned 4 percent to 5 percent rate. "If our competitors start retreating, that may cause us to change our mind and accelerate our growth plan," Kelly said. "If the airline industry is shrinking, obviously that puts us in a great position to pick up additional passengers."
Wall Street has been concerned about Southwest's ability to offset its unwinding hedges -- the company loses a bunch of its protection after 2008.
The shares have fallen about 10 percent this year. Still, the stock has fared better than the overall sector. The Amex airline index is down about 30 percent. On Wednesday afternoon, Southwest shares were down 13 cents at $13.67 on the New York Stock Exchange.
Gosh, I think you are right. I might as well give up my slot in the next scheduled class. Even if I make it to class SWA is sure to fold in the coming months. What was I thinking. Thanks for setting me (and us all) straight. God Bless You!
And they love to hire naive pilots...
By all means, come join us. After you get out of class and away from Dallas, you'll find a different company.
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