SWA 4th Quarter

[lowecur]

parrots

Speaking of amature analysts....

You don't consider 8 cents per share marginal? Go look at Airtran or Jetblue when their numbers come out next week. For the size of your company, that's marginal. Without the $41M fuel hedge this Q, where would you be? That's not going to last forever, prices will stabilize.

In the 1st Q of 2003 you guys had a net profit of 3 cents per share with a 58% LF. I think the profit was around $24M. This year you will have that charge of $30M for the reservations center. Mr. Parkers stated the following looking forward: "Although the first half of January 2004 showed modest unit revenue growth, bookings suggest that January's load factor could fall below last year's performance of 58.0 percent." Maybe that's why the big sales are happening systemwide. Couple that with the new competition in New England, and it's going to be close this Q.

Hey Kansas - It's, look for the order. If you're gonna raze me, get the quote right.

 

[SWAInflt]

Without the $41M fuel hedge this Q, where would you be?

Guess it's a good thing the company did go ahead a do that hedging thing. How about some props for a forward thinking CFO and his team.

This year you will have that charge of $30M for the reservations center.

Taken from a press release on Southwest. com:

"We also recently announced the consolidation of our reservation operations from nine into six Reservation Centers. Although we will incur restructuring charges estimated in the $20 million range in first quarter 2004, we expect ongoing annual operating cost savings to exceed that amount."


The real elephant in the room is the Flight Attendant contract.
I was impressed that one of the Wall Street types did inquire about the negotiations during the conference call Q and A. In 2004, the contract will either be settled with the subsequent increases in labor costs plus the one time charge for retro. Or....the contract won't be settled and the F/A group will be released for self-help whatever form that might take. I gotta think that would have a negative impact on revenue as the negotiations get more press and passengers get jittery and start to book away in anticipation of some sort of work slowdown/stoppage.

 

[OPIE01]

Lowecur you are coming in Loud and stu..

Lowecur you are coming in Loud and stupik.
As the Drill SGT said in "Full Metal Jacket": "What is your Major Malfunction."

Yes, I watch to many movies, but you don’t even see the glass as half full or half empty. You think the glass was sucked clean by some kind of evil and then smashed into pieces so that it wouldn’t hold water.

And by the way, I am probably the only one too dumb to figure out how to put you on my “IGNORE” list, that is why no one else will probably reply to your Pessimistic thoughts.

Please understand that is an aviation board, it’s for Aviators, those who want to be Aviators, and those that support aviation.

Now on the other hand, if you sent a check in to help pay for this website like the rest of us, then feel free to rant and rave about the sky falling.

 

[Falconjet]

Careful Opie

Careful Opie: you are a Christian, remember. Check the list, lowecur has every right to post his dribble on this board.

FJ

 

[OPIE01]

Your Right, I'm sorry

Your Right, I'm sorry

I figured out the ignore list so I will not be tempted to go off again,

thanks FJ for keeping me on the straight and narrow

 

[Falconjet]

forgive and forget

Unfortunately his posts make a lot of us go postal. Just stirring the pot. Peace.

FJ

 

[lowecur]

Opie

Lowecur you are coming in Loud and stupik.
As the Drill SGT said in "Full Metal Jacket": "What is your Major Malfunction."

Relax Ope, SWA isn't going unker. They just neek a little tune-up by way of Brazil.

 

[ivauir]

Dude enough with the jungle jet - NOBODY agrees with you - we'll get 7E7s before we go that route.

 

[lowecur]

The real elephant in the room is the Flight Attendant contract.
I was impressed that one of the Wall Street types did inquire about the negotiations during the conference call Q and A. In 2004, the contract will either be settled with the subsequent increases in labor costs plus the one time charge for retro. Or....the contract won't be settled and the F/A group will be released for self-help whatever form that might take. I gotta think that would have a negative impact on revenue as the negotiations get more press and passengers get jittery and start to book away in anticipation of some sort of work slowdown/stoppage.

It's my understanding you want $58. per hour, is that correct? That's close to a starting C/A on a 190 at B6. How many hours a month do you work, and when does the $58. kick in on seniority? Of course, I'm sure some of the parrots would be glad to kick in to help.

 

[SWAInflt]

It's my understanding you want $58. per hour, is that correct? That's close to a starting C/A on a 190 at B6. How many hours a month do you work, and when does the $58. kick in on seniority? Of course, I'm sure some of the parrots would be glad to kick in to help.

Not really sure where the $58 figure came from but it is incorrect. The TWU proposed TFP pay scale will follow the rest of this reply. The average line pays between 90 and 100 TFP per month plus per diem.

The contract would be retroactive to 2002 hence the "old" numbers. If you read the column across you will see the COLA increases at each paygrade thoroughout the life of the contract.



------------6/1/02---6/1/03---6/1/04--6/1/05--6/1/06
mth 1-6----20.21---20.82----21.44-----22.08---22.75
mth 6-12--20.71---21.33----21.97-----22.63---23.31
Year 2-----23.03---23.72----24.43-----25.16---25.92
Year 3-----25.34---26.10----26.88-----27.69---28.52
Year 4-----27.66---28.49----29.34-----30.22---31.13
Year 5-----29.77---30.87----31.80-----32.75---33.73
Year 6-----32.29---33.26----34.25-----35.28---36.34
Year 7-----34.61---35.64----36.71-----37.81---38.95
Year 8-----36.92---38.03----39.17-----40.34---41.95
Year 9-----39.24---40.41----41.62-----42.87---44.16
Year 10---41.55---42.80----44.08-----45.40----46.76
Year 11---43.87---45.18----46.54-----47.93----49.37
Year 12---46.18---47.57----48.99-----50.46----51.98

Here is our current payscale:

14.67 first six months
14.90 second six months
17.34
18.42
20.40
21.48
22.56
24.12
25.60
27.41
29.30
31.27
36.06
37.03
37.93
38.88
40.15
41.26

As you can see the proposed top out rate is well under $58. The step compression would put inflight in line with the rest of the unions at SWA who top out in 12 years while Inflight currently tops out in 17.