Southwest DIA, Frontier>DONE

[Porch]

I think the title says it all. I'm at the bottom of the list. Given it takes almost a year to get a decent 121 job, its probably a good time to start looking. Although optimistic about F9's future, reality speaks louder given SWA vs. F9's balance sheet. I don't think it is a good idea to kick back and watch. I think it's going to be ugly.

I was working out at the gym & this gal I know, who knows I am pilot...She comes up to me all fired up & excited about SWA comming to DIA. I was thinking...Great here we go. They haven't even started advertising yet.

 

[hawkerflyer]

Isn't it a bit premature to think Frontier will disappear because SWA is starting DEN flights ? People thought Airtran was crazy to go into Delta's backyard...

 

[Oakum_Boy]

If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. Frontier seems like a nice airline with more class than Southwest. Sad if they end up losing out to them

 

[apdsm]

There is plenty of business at DIA for both airlines!

 

[BobbyB]

Isn't it a bit premature to think Frontier will disappear because SWA is starting DEN flights ? People thought Airtran was crazy to go into Delta's backyard...

I believe that this is his whole point exactly.

 

[Porch]

The economy in denver is the flattest of any mid-sized city. For example, realestate has been flat or negative for the last 3 years or more. Basically that's a reflection on wages and lack of new industry/businesses. That tells me that the local population doesn't have much disposable income for airline tickets. Therefore, the airline with the lowest costs wins. F9 is 10 cents higher per passenger than SWA, not including their hedge funds. F9 just began a hedge program. Who is going to fill their seats first? I am not trying to be negative about F9, I just think it is prudent to venture outside the comfort zone and possibly solidify a stronger future for your family. I think it is a big gamble to wait it out...that's my point.

 

[N1kawotg]

Just my .02 but I don't see much change in DIA. If you got on SWA website to buy tickets last year, you could already go to Denver, it was through the code share. The tail of the plane will just change on the routes. In fact-by rumor- over 80% of ATA pax were SWA codeshare. SWA is now going to fly with their planes thats the difference. Of course they will add more flights to other cities that weren't code shared, but with a break-even LF of 56-59% they don't need all the pax in DIA. F9 should be ok.

 

[Fly2AK]

I dont think Frontier is going anywhere and I am so tired of hearing that SW is coming and XYZ airline is finished. SW does not fly to ANC, CAK, DCA or to any Mexico destination with their aircraft and the routes they share with F9 are not dominated by SW, F9 is doing fine on those routes that they share with SW. I know plenty of people in DEN that currently fly F9 and will continue to do so even after SW comes in, but why is it people automatically feel the SW cattle flights will just dominate every route they fly? Sure they are doing great on the books, but are you that confident that their hedging is going to last forever and SW will always make millions? F9 has a superior product and have been doing fine and sure SW made however much more than F9 but F9 is also a smaller company steadily growing during difficult times and I think they are here to stay. I think F9 needs to just keep doing what they are doing and they will be fine.

 

[propsarebest]

History has proven, time and time again SOUTHWEST INCREASES THE TOTAL NUMBER OF PAX FLYING OUT OF AN AIRPORT, PERIOD! People that wouldn't normally fly at all seem to flock to an airport when WN moves in. F9 has BY FAR a MUCH SUPERIOR product than WN, and will hold it's own-those loyal to Frontier will stay. Given a choice, I ALWAYS pick Frontier.

 

[PCL_128]

I don't know why everyone seems to think that SWA's balance sheet is so superior to F9's. Southwest is going to lose money next year if fuel prices don't drop considerably. If fuel prices stay where they are now, then SWA is slated to lose $300 million next year according to most analysts. F9 has a great product and a good balance sheet. I wouldn't be too worried.

 

[chris69]

PCL,
Please, show us a link or list the numbers. Assertions of a loss are thrown about all the time but never numerically justified.

 

[luv2fly]

Prove it!

PCL_128 said:

"If fuel prices stay where they are now, then SWA is slated to lose $300 million next year according to most analysts"


That is a boldface lie. Do you care to expand on who said this? GK has said numerous times in the past few weeks that he is expecting a 15% increase in profit next year, with current (two weeks ago, $60+ oil prices). Since then we have secured a greater percentage of our hedged position for 2006. I believe we are now above 80% hedged for our 2006 planned fuel needs at around $33 dollars a barrel.

Why such hostility toward SWA? I think F9 is a fine airline and will continue status quo with SWA in DEN. F9 will probably actually benefit from the increased passengers SWA historically brings into an airport. Only if they can operate long enough with the lower yields they will be getting due to having to lower ticket prices to match ours. Comparing balance sheets with SWA shows you don't know much about the crap coming out of our mouth.

Maybe you should stick to the regional board since thats who you fly for.

 

[LPamp]

This is coming from no where except my mouth. I think that Frontier already has a following and an excellent product. I personally think that "Ted" should have more worries then F9.

Any thoughts...no one's mentioned Ted yet?

-LP-

 

[canyonblue]

Southwest is going to lose money next year if fuel prices don't drop considerably.

Right, genius. No one at Frontier should worry that much, now if you're at Pinnacle, I'd be worried.

 

[PCL_128]

Right, genius. No one at Frontier should worry that much, now if you're at Pinnacle, I'd be worried.

Sorry, I'm not worried at all. I'll be just fine.

For those of you that doubt SWA's upcoming problems in the next few years, reference this article from last month: http://www.viewswire.com/index.asp?layout=display_article&doc_id=1819496767

 

[starchkr]

I like both airlines...but i am wondering where you get the fact that housing(i am assuming you mean values) has dropped in the past 3 years? Our community has appreciated 10% since april alone, that hardly seems like a drop in values to me. The area has historically shown a high percentage gain in values over the past few years...maybe look again at those numbers.

Good luck to both companies...I wouldn't turn either one of them down if they gave me a shot.

 

[luv2fly]

That article is a dud!! It doesn't say anything.

But, some simple minded people will hang on a few simplified assertions the article makes.

Compensation per employee numbers. We have reduced the number of employees over the last few years 34K+ down to 30K+, and at the same time we have grown our business (new routes, cities, more airplanes). Our total compensation per employee is more, but we operate with less employees. More efficient workforce.

The hedging numbers are off as well. Old news. Our hedging postion is now over 80% for 2006.

Wait till Thursday when Herb chews up and spits out Gerald Arpey during the WA hearing. It will be fun to watch! I expect a change in the situation when voting occurs for the TSA renewal bill in February.

I'm done responding. Cowboys are starting in a few and I can't chug my beer as fast when I type.

 

[Remington]

Regarding balance sheets, did frontier pay cash for all their planes?

 

[Whataburger]

luv2fly

I'll try to save ya some trouble - the Boys are on bye this week. However feel free to watch the 49ers whoop-up on the Giants at 405. Then the next one is a crapshoot, lets hope the Skins beat the Eagles at 8:30. Gotta love Sundays.

 

[Metro752]

anyone else here live near major airports and like a bunch of times they look up, they see a white jet, with the lame name TED written massively on the side of it.

 

[canyonblue737]

I don't know why everyone seems to think that SWA's balance sheet is so superior to F9's. Southwest is going to lose money next year if fuel prices don't drop considerably. If fuel prices stay where they are now, then SWA is slated to lose $300 million next year according to most analysts. F9 has a great product and a good balance sheet. I wouldn't be too worried.

Ahhh... SWA will make money next year. Your numbers are simply picked out of the sky.

That said I think F9 has a great product and isn't going anywhere when we arrive in DEN.

 

[chase]

The following assumption applies--load factors remain the same--the following statement:

A 1% fare increase would raise on average approximately $70m additional revenue annually. Therefore to cover a $300-500M increase in fuel costs fares would need to rise 3-5%. I've been told AA has had 70 fare raises in the last 18 months, of which 35 have held (timeframe maybe off slightly, my apologies)...that being the case most carriers have raised fares this year & those fares are sticking & revenues have increased...unfortunately these revenues have paid for higher fuel prices....our fare increases would do exactly the same "if" SWA chose to do that.


I believe that maybe the comment from one of our execs about more savings from the people side of the equation maybe tough has some merit & therefore that is why fares saw an increase this year, I believe 3 increases of $1-6 per selected segments based on mileage......can SWA be more efficient? You betcha & many initiatives are going forward to make that happen thank goodness but to say that fares "might" or "might not" rise to cover some of these costs....well, the smart folks in Dallas will do what they need to do to keep SWA in the black along with the help of the employees, I'm confident of that fact.

I'm very optimistic about SWA's future despite the potholes along the way...doesn't mean SWA or its employees can take anything for granted...we can't, listening to our customers, shareholders & employees will be the key to finding the solutions to the problems....fortunately those decisions are based off of predictions from public forums !!!!!

BTW, good luck to those in DEN with F9 & UAL...I think the competition will be good for the citizens of the front range & there is certainly enough passengers to hopefully allow all to prosper!!!

 

[chris69]

This always seems to cause confusion, and my reading of the 10Q available on the website doesn't help my understanding either, but the following is what I can glean from the numbers with my limted knowledge of accounting:
3Q/2005 $
Income before taxes: 368mil
Income taxes: 141mil or 38.3% effective tax rate
Net Income: 227mil

or, with no hedge:
Income before taxes: 368mil
Hedge: 276mil
New income before taxes: 92mil

Take out federal taxes, but add back other items such as profit sharing loss, benefits and other fees and SWA's still in the black. A lesser hedged position in 2006 will mean less profit if revenues were to remain flat, but looking at the numbers as they exist now, even without any hedges, SWA would still eke out a profit never the less. One interesting set of numbers which includes the market value of the hedges is the asset portion of the filing which shows an increase from $2.156bil on 12/31/04 to $4.109bil on 9/30/05 or $428mil to $944mil for the hedge asset alone.

 

[chris69]

Adding the other quarters.
2Q/2005
296mil
97mil
159mil
or
296mil
196mil
100mil

1Q/2005 (Includes investment in ATA)
114mil
38mil
76mil
or
114mil
155mil
-41mil

First 3 Quarters 2005
778mil
276mil (to Uncle Sam)
502mil (to SWA)
or
778mil
627mil (saved due to hedging)
151mil (net income before taxes, no hedge)

 

[canyonblue]

For those of you that doubt SWA's upcoming problems in the next few years, reference this article from last month:

Read it.:bomb: We're headed straight for the crapper, no need for anyone to worry about us.

 

[ivauir]

Sorry, I'm not worried at all. I'll be just fine.

For those of you that doubt SWA's upcoming problems in the next few years, reference this article from last month: http://www.viewswire.com/index.asp?layout=display_article&doc_id=1819496767

I read the article (and it is pretty good BTW), but I still don't see the $300 million loss you are talking about.

 

[Jetsi]

To all of the good Southwest folks,

Welcome to Denver.

I have been watching this unfold, and finally felt compelled to add my .02.

For starters, as far as I know in 34 years Southwest hasn't put another airline out of business through direct competition. If I am wrong feel free to correct me.

Another point that was brought up is that Southwest is simply taking over ATA's 4 MDW flights, so no capacity is being added. It is simply changing the planes and crews doing the work. As for the other destinations, I cannot say.

Everybody seems to be screaming that the sky is falling because SWA is coming to Denver. Are we showing "Chicken Little" on the flights yet ?

Anyway, that was my .02. Good luck when you get to the Mile High City.

Jetsi

 

[jetalc]

Another point that was brought up is that Southwest is simply taking over ATA's 4 MDW flights, so no capacity is being added. It is simply changing the planes and crews doing the work. As for the other destinations, I cannot say.

I believe they added a total of 13 flights - LAS, PHX and MDW, not just MDW...not sure about this, and it doesn't really matter anyway...

 

[canyonblue]

Yes, it is a good stable place to work now. But you never know what the future might hold! How many 1999 hires at UAL thought they were set for life?

No flames here T-Gates. I think we all know that this could all end in the duration of our careers here, but most of us just get riled up at the ones out there that just can't wait to take a jab at Southwest. As big as this Airline is we still treat it as our own, and take all attacks a little personal, sometimes a little overboard, myself included. I have not heard from one Southwest pilot how they want us to go into DEN and put anybody out of business, but many on this board are not exactly giving us the key to the city. We do tend to tire of the "Buy your Type" "Cattle Call" "Greyhound" comments that are typed here unprovoked. I do agree with you T-Gates that this could very well be an airline that I will not get to retire at, but in the meantime I will do everything possible to ensure that I have done everything I can to see that Southwest is still there when I retire. I think we all believe that "The Rumors of our demise Have Been Greatly Exaggerated".

 

[Remington]

The UAL newhires of the 90's were told to look around and see all the future millionaires around them. They thought they were the untouchables. I believe Southwest guys/gals know what can happen if they dont run their airline properly with everyone pulling their weight.
I dont think that SWA is trying to put anyone out of business; however, as a business, if you arent growing, you're dying. I hope SWA, Uni(ted) and Frontier can all prosper starting in January.