"everyone hired before that will be senior to everyone hired after that, flying or not... Per the LAW"
To what law are you referring? It sounds like you are referring to constructive notice, but that is not a law. Also, what you are describing is basic seniority, those hired first are more senior to those hired at a later date.
Hockypilot, no one is going to be working under the "republic contract", which is actually the Chautauqua CBA. If and when an SLI is completed, an entirely new CBA will need to be negotiated (preferably after an entirely new Union representation drive). I don't know of any FAPA pilots that want to join the IBT, and I haven't talked to one IBT pilot that wants to stay with the IBT. There is going to be a pretty big union drive at RAH in 2010, especially considering the new changes that the NMB has made regarding representation elections. Now every organized labor affiliation in the country will think they have chance in every election, and they will. Everyone continues to work under their existing CBA until the new CBA is ratified.
The one statement I will agree with is that you just don't know how this entire process is going to work out.