Scary Numbers

[MFRskyknight]

I got these numbers from the AOPA web site.

I got a hat from the AOPA web site. It isn't getting me the chicks I thought it would. Must be broken...

Commercial 127,389

Private 250,150

Student 83,567

Instructor 85,865

Unless I'm mistaken, "Student", in terms of FAA certificates, refers to anyone working on a Private license, right? So on top of the 83,567 current "student" pilots out there, there would be a number of private pilots working on their instrument, comm, ME, etc. Granted, it's probably combined a smaller number than all the primary students, but I wouldn't think there'd be a shortage of work for market-savvy, quality CFIs.

Anyone who gets a CFI is nuts.

Agreed. Can't wait to get mine!!

 

[mattpilot]

Unless I'm mistaken, "Student", in terms of FAA certificates, refers to anyone working on a Private license, right? So on top of the 83,567 current "student" pilots out there, there would be a number of private pilots working on their instrument, comm, ME, etc. Granted, it's probably combined a smaller number than all the primary students, but I wouldn't think there'd be a shortage of work for market-savvy, quality CFIs.

And i'm guessing here that "student" refers to anyone who has a "student pilot certificate". "Students" are those who actually have a student certificate and thus fit the definition of Part 61.

It is not anyone who takes flight lessons, only those who chose to get a "student pilot certificate". So that could, but not necessarily does, exclude most pre-solo students from the count. Now i say "not necessarily" because i got my student certificate before i took my first flying lesson.

How else would they keep track of the number of students?

 

[Skyline]

Avbug

No, skyline. Those are stats. Meaningless stats. First, you make the assumption that there are three hundred thousand professional pilots because you added the number of ATPs to commercial pilots. If you stop and think about it before posting more on this, you'll realize that all ATP's are commercial...and many of us hold ATP-this, commercial-that. In other words, many of us are one and the same, from both lists. Further, a great many also hold private pilot privileges in something else, (eg, private pilot-balloon, etc). On that alone, those numbers go out the window.

Second, not all those pilots are working. Many of those certificates are for 60 and older, and many retired. Many have gone on to do other things. Others simply don't work.

The statistics you quoted are also wrong, because most working professional pilots have been or are currently holders of a flight instructor certificate. It's also axiomatic that most of the instructors who hold certificates do not teach, or if they do, it's very, very little.

You need to do a little more research.

Avbug

No, You can't call these stats. The numbers have been taken into consideration for all the variables that you mentioned. These are the facts. They are the true numbers of pilots out there with current medicals. Here is the link http://www.aopa.org/special/newsroom/stats/pilots_state.html . After two decades in the industry I still didn't know very many who made it to major, so I did some research. Flying Magazine is the one who is good at bending the statistics.

Skyline

 

[Skyline]

Details

Even it you left the pvt pilot numbers out totally there are about 30 to 50 pilots out there for every new job at the majors. Just military attrition alone could satisfy the needs of the airlines and have a few thousand left overs every year. There are other jobs in aviation but my point is that there are very few truly good ones to go around. Corporate and other markets will have a few but it can't be too many. The reality is that most of us will end up as a regional captain or flying a Lear someplace or perhaps as an expatriate flying overseas. I have already had most of those jobs and they are no good at all. None of those sound good to me.

Skyline

 

[siucavflight]

Just wondering how you arrived at the fact that 70% of private pilots is intending to go pro, I would guess tht the number would be seriously less than that, maybe closer to 10%

 

[Skyline]

Pvt Pilot

Given that over the years the percentage of pilots with professional licenses has gone up considerably to the point where they comprise over half the total number of all pilots it then would be easy to assume that more than half of the private pilots out there intent to be a pro, since a portion will not advance past private. There are simply less people who can afford to do this as a hobby anymore. By 2020 it will be near 100% of private to pro. The latest sport pilot licence is further evidence of that.

Skyline

 

[siucavflight]

Given that over the years the percentage of pilots with professional licenses has gone up considerably to the point where they comprise over half the total number of all pilots it then would be easy to assume that more than half of the private pilots out there intent to be a pro, since a portion will not advance past private. There are simply less people who can afford to do this as a hobby anymore. By 2020 it will be near 100% of private to pro. The latest sport pilot licence is further evidence of that.

Skyline

Very interesting, I love pilots, they know it all.

 

[Kingairrick]

Even it you left the pvt pilot numbers out totally there are about 30 to 50 pilots out there for every new job at the majors. Just military attrition alone could satisfy the needs of the airlines and have a few thousand left overs every year. There are other jobs in aviation but my point is that there are very few truly good ones to go around. Corporate and other markets will have a few but it can't be too many. The reality is that most of us will end up as a regional captain or flying a Lear someplace or perhaps as an expatriate flying overseas. I have already had most of those jobs and they are no good at all. None of those sound good to me.

Skyline

So what was your point? Are you telling everyone who has aspirations to go to a major to give up and go to law school? Or, are you giving them the heads up because you are quitting yourself?

I agree with Avbug that what you have done is take FACTUAL statistics and inferred your own conclusions from them. It's easy to do. It makes the whole argument suspect.

I have also been in this industry for 20 years, and so far in the past 12 months, I have seen every one of my friends that were qualified, and had the desire to go, get hired by a major airline.

There ARE quality jobs out there for quality people.

 

[Skyline]

Point

My only point is that there is a lot of competition and that there are clearly not enough seats to go around. You are right that most of us will quit over time. Sooner or later most of us will have come to that conclusion. The reality is that those who stick with it will be lucky to end up as an RJ Captain and if that is acceptable to you then great. I know more people who died with a yoke in hand that those who made it to the majors. I also believe that I live in an area of the country that has a lower chance than other places. Go to the link yourself. Look up the same numbers. You decide, but to me it seems clear and fits with what I have witnessed in the industry.

Skyline

 

[Skyline]

Major Airline

I have also been in this industry for 20 years, and so far in the past 12 months, I have seen every one of my friends that were qualified, and had the desire to go, get hired by a major airline.

QUOTE]

What is your definition of a Major airline? I think skywest qualifies as one but I wouldn't call it a good job.

Skyline

 

[ToiletDuck]

well at the school I went to I'm the 6th one to graduate out of a class of 88 that started. Either the rest quit or changed majors. At the actual flying part of it even less percentage wise made it. I'd put it more around maybe 5% that made it all the way through.

 

[Kingairrick]

Southwest, Jetblue, Continental.

 

[VampyreGTX]

Avbug

No, You can't call these stats. The numbers have been taken into consideration for all the variables that you mentioned. These are the facts. They are the true numbers of pilots out there with current medicals. Here is the link http://www.aopa.org/special/newsroom/stats/pilots_state.html . After two decades in the industry I still didn't know very many who made it to major, so I did some research. Flying Magazine is the one who is good at bending the statistics.

Skyline

Where do you see it mention anything about current medicals? It only states total certificates by state. Nothing about the pilots even having active medicals. (that's probably how they collect the stats, but it doesn't state that like you say.) This list includes all pilots 60+, all of which no longer qualify for a airline job, but still will maintain an ATP or commercial until they die. I have a commercial rating, my goal was to fly, but with my family, unless the pay scales in the beginning change drastically or I get a windfall of cash somehow, my 'career' will remain as a certificated commercial pilot and nothing more. Also, I can't recall which magazine, but one shows the monthly NEW certificates and the student pilot certificates have been slowing. There are less new student certificates issued every month.

Oh and they are stats, they are even located under the STATS part of the AOPA site. What you call them, stats or facts, has no bearing on what they represent.

 

[Skyline]

Denial

Stats or Facts,

Like I said you make the choice on how to interpret them. Few would say that the odds are good to make it to a major. Out of my college graduating class of 30 only three are still flying and only one made it to a major.

My message is that throughout our careers we should occasionally step back and measure our progress, the costs and the odds of success. I had a roommate while flying for a regional. I bought a house and he moved in with me. At the time I told him to consider buying one as well, but he told me that he wanted to wait until he got on with a major before he bought. A year later he was dating a beautiful young lady and I asked if he was thinking of marriage he told me that "no" he was going to wait till he got on with a major before he settled down. The years have gone by and he and I are approaching 40 my friend is still at that regional and becoming a senior Captain and all he talks about these days are "how expensive houses are" and "how all the good girls are gone".

We all aggressively pursue our dreams without regard to personal costs. As we age the price becomes more expensive. You might loose more than you bargained for unless you periodically evaluate your situation. Look at the market, the number of unemployed, hiring trends and forecast where you feel your realistic odds of being in 5 years are. If you are headed in the wrong direction it can take that long to effect a change.

It is true that a few airlines are hiring but just as many are beginning to furlough again. My guess is that there are at least 100 qualified applicants out there for every new hire at SWA. We all need to evaluate our own odds of being that 100 and what we are willing to sacrifice to get there.

Skyline

 

[A Squared]

No, You can't call these stats. The numbers have been taken into consideration for all the variables that you mentioned. These are the facts.

Look, every time you post, it becomes more apparent that you don't have a clue what the word Statistics means. Statistics are merely a collection of data, numerical "facts", if you will. A group of numbers representing the number and breakdown among different types of certificated pilots is certainly statistics, in it's most basic form. If you don't think this is statistics, you need to go someplace and learn what statistics are, because you haven't a clue.


MFRskynight and Mattpilot are correct, the munbers for student pilots released by the FAA means holders of student pilot certificates, ie people working on a PPL, rec or sport certificate.

it then would be easy to assume that more than half of the private pilots out there intent (sic) to be a pro

Umm, sure it would be equally easy to assume that 100% are, or that 1 % are. you can assume anything you want, that doesn't make it even remotely correct. To have any validity, an assumption like that has to have some sort of rational basis, which yours does not. Like someone else said, you just pulled that out of your arse.

On this page, http://www.aopa.org/special/newsroom/stats/pilots.html
AOPA makes the statement that "As a rule of thumb, about 20 percent of all pilots are actually employed full-time as pilots." Now, I'm not sure where AOPA gets that number, but it's a long, long way from your position that *all* comm and ATP holders are working pilots and 70% of private pilots *will* be.

Out of my college graduating class of 30 only three are still flying and only one made it to a major.

hmmm, that doesn't give much support to your theory that *all* comm and ATP holders are working pilots and 70% of private pilots *will* be. What's that? 10% of your graduating class? May we assume that your graduating class, if it was a professional pilot major, all had commercial certificates at a minimum when they graduated?

Where do you see it mention anything about current medicals? It only states total certificates by state. Nothing about the pilots even having active medicals.

It doesn't say that on the AOPA page, but that is how the FAA releases thos numbers, as "active" pilots, maning those holding current medicals. If you go the FAA's website:

http://registry.faa.gov/activeairmen/main_page.asp

you'll see that this page is titled "active airmen" and when you consider that the FAAs statistics groups all pilots together while the AOPA statistics parse out the helicopter, glider, and lighter than air pilots, the numbers match up fairly well.

 

[bigD]

Skyline is the anti-Kit Darby.

 

[flyinboy]

Too much negativity

Skyline, you are nothing but a negativity spewin', doomsday preachin', naysayer.

Has it ever occurred to you that some of us are happy flying our Lear jets for these "crappy" 135 companies? I'm home with my kids every night and I get paid to do what I love. That is the most important thing.

Big deal if I don't get on with a major airline-I'm not bent that way. Those who truly want to get to that level will persevere and do whatever it takes to do so. The others will either give up, or settle for something less than their dream job. For me, as well as others I'm sure, it’s not the major airlines.



My apologies to those who care if I have misspelled something.

 

[NYCPilot]

I realize I'm getting in a little late on the conversation but here's my take.

I believe most of those stats. come from whats reported on current medicals. As far as there being a large number of CFI's out there, that figure is skewed. There are a lot of people who hold the CFI and do not actively teach. A lot of these pilots are airline pilots and such, flying commerical operations. They only keep the CFI current every 2 years since it is a hassle to have it reinstated again. A lot of CFI's also have no intention on going for a professional job, other than just teaching on the weekends for soem free flight time and partaking in their hobby. Most have occupations that pay much more and feel satisifed with thier work.

Many pilots will even get the commercial for sake of just having it. It's not much different than attaining the various levels of belts found in the martial arts.

Although it appears that the student to CFI ratio is a one-on-one, many after getting the SPC don't even bother to finish. Don't forget, a CFI teaches mor ethan just primary students. His student base consists of certificated pilots who need BFR's, checkouts, IFR currency, advanced ratings and certificates and so on. Plenty of students don't even possess a SPC, andso these may increase the number of students even more. Lots of people take lessons without obtaining the SPC.

 

[avbug]

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, one in five pilots is a commercial pilot, meaning one who flies for a living.

http://stats.bls.gov/oco/pdf/ocos107.pdf

Of course, the official agency charged with keeping track of this stuff and reporting it also states on the same report:

"Civilian aircraft pilots and flight engineers held about 100,000 jobs in 2002. About 79,000 worked as airline pilots, copilots, and flight engineers. The remainder were commercial pilots who worked as flight instructors at local airports or for large businesses that fly company cargo and executives in their own airplanes or helicopters. Some commercial pilots flew small planes for air-taxi companies, usually to or from lightly traveled airports not served by major airlines. Others worked for a variety of businesses, performing tasks such as dusting crops, inspecting pipelines, or conducting sightseeing trips. Federal, State, and local governments also employed pilots. A few pilots were self-employed.."

We know that isn't close to being correct. It also goes on to talk about the "pilot shortage" prior to 09/11.

I cannot believe that Skyline has the experience he suggests in his personal data, yet is this ignorant of the state of the industry. Clearly he didn't come up through the industry, or he'd know better.

I'm also a little disturbed by the arrogance to suggest that most pilots view flying for a major airline as the shangri-la of employment in the industry. There are more than a few who would consider such a move a step down. While it's true that not every pilot will be sitting in the front office of a B777 at the end of his or her career...not everybody wants to, either. Think about that.

Whatever one's flavor, for those who desire to fly for a living, the opportunity is not only there, but very available. It's not a holy grail that only the select few ever reach. If it's something you want to do, you will do it. If it's something to which you are not fully committed, you might do it.

Also from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we find the following:

http://stats.bls.gov/oco/content/ocos107.stm

"1 out of 5 pilots is a commercial pilot involved in more unusual tasks, such as dusting crops, spreading seed for reforestation, testing aircraft, flying passengers and cargo to areas not served by regular airlines, directing firefighting efforts, tracking criminals, monitoring traffic, and rescuing and evacuating injured persons."

 

[A Squared]

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, one in five pilots is a commercial pilot, meaning one who flies for a living.

I think you're reading this incorectly (assuming I'm reading your meaning correctly) What I read in the BLS report is that out of 5 pilots who fly for a living, 4 are arline pilots (or FEs) and one is a commercial pilot of some other type. The BLS documentdoesn't address the issue of how many certificated pilots actually are employed as pilots, or perhaps I misunderstand your menaing.


On a somewhat related tangent, the BLS has been way off on some of thier information. Recently they released thier occupational fatality statistics for 2004, claiming that there were 22 airline pilots killed on the job

In reality there were 3 airline pilots who died on the job in 2004